{"id":15832,"date":"2024-05-14T13:30:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-14T13:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=15832"},"modified":"2024-05-14T13:31:04","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T13:31:04","slug":"cubs-vs-braves-pitching-duel-points-to-low-scoring-affair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/cubs-vs-braves-pitching-duel-points-to-low-scoring-affair\/","title":{"rendered":"Cubs vs. Braves: Pitching Duel Points to Low-Scoring Affair"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-sourcepos=\"1:1-1:94\"><em>Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:20 p.m. ET, Truist Park Atlanta, GA<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:49\">The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves lock horns in the middle game of their three-game series on Tuesday night, with both teams looking to their starting pitchers to continue the trend of strong pitching performances witnessed in the series opener.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:49\"><strong>Top Prediction Models<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"3:1-7:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:46\"><strong>Dimers:<\/strong> Braves 4 &#8211; Cubs 2 (6 total runs)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"4:1-4:56\"><strong>Underdog Chance:<\/strong> Braves 5 &#8211; Cubs 3 (8 total runs)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:65\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem:<\/strong> Braves 4.3 &#8211; Cubs 3.5 (7.8 total runs)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"6:1-7:0\"><strong>My Prediction:<\/strong> Braves 4 &#8211; Cubs 2 (6 total runs)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"40:1-40:21\"><strong>Final Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"42:1-43:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"42:1-43:0\"><strong>Braves Win (Slight Favorite):<\/strong> This combines the model average with the factors mentioned above. Expect a close game with the Braves edging out the Cubs, possibly by a score of 4-2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"8:1-8:121\"><strong>Overall, the models and my prediction suggest a low-scoring game, likely falling under the Over\/Under line of 8 runs.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:34\"><strong>Dueling Arms Take Center Stage<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:40\">Jameson Taillon (3-0, 1.13 ERA) toes the rubber for the Cubs, boasting a scorching start to the season. His microscopic ERA paints a picture of dominance, allowing a mere 3 earned runs across his 24 innings pitched. Furthermore, Taillon has a history of success against the Braves, holding a 1-0 record with a respectable 2.50 ERA in three career starts against them.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:309\">Opposing him on the mound is the ever-reliable Chris Sale (5-1, 2.95 ERA) for the Braves. Sale has been in a groove lately, surrendering just 2 runs in his last 18 innings pitched. He also boasts a winning record against the Cubs, going 2-1 with a stellar 1.23 ERA in his limited career meetings with them (most recently in 2016).<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:43\"><strong>Offensive Contrasts: Power vs. Averages<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:353\">While the pitching matchup screams a low-scoring affair, the offensive profiles of both teams paint a slightly different picture. The Braves boast a potent lineup, currently ranking 7th in MLB with a team batting average of .261. They can put runs on the board in bunches, as evidenced by their recent stretch where they&#8217;ve won 5 of their last 6 games.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:209\">On the other hand, the Cubs struggle offensively, ranking a lowly 18th in MLB with a team batting average of just .248. Their recent form reflects this offensive anemia, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:39\"><strong>Injuries and Trends Favor the Under<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:143\">The Braves are expected to get a boost with the potential return of star third baseman Austin Riley (day-to-day). However, the Cubs lose a key arm in reliever Adbert Alzolay (right forearm strain), who lands on the IL. Historically, the Braves hold a significant home-field advantage against the Cubs, winning 13 of their last 20 meetings at Truist Park.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:57\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem and Model Consensus Support Under<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:339\">The Pythagorean Theorem, a formula estimating a team&#8217;s winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed, suggests a close game with the Braves holding a slight edge (Braves 4.3 runs &#8211; Cubs 3.5 runs). This aligns with the predictions of various statistical models like Dimers (Braves 4 &#8211; Cubs 2) and Underdog Chance (Braves 5 &#8211; Cubs 3).<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:44\"><strong>The Verdict: Under 8 Runs the Smart Play<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:352\">Considering the dominant pitching performances from both starters, the Cubs&#8217; offensive struggles, and the historical trends favoring low-scoring games at Truist Park, the Under 8 runs appears to be the more attractive betting option. While the Braves&#8217; potent offense can&#8217;t be ignored, Taillon&#8217;s recent dominance and Sale&#8217;s track record against the Cubs suggest a pitcher&#8217;s duel. Add the Pythagorean Theorem and model consensus leaning towards a low-scoring affair, and the Under becomes the safer bet.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:352\"><strong>Pick: Under 8<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:20 p.m. ET, Truist Park Atlanta, GA The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves lock horns in the middle game of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15836,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[517,559,204,812,811,499,774,72],"class_list":["post-15832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-models","tag-analysis","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-free-pick","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/usa_today_23257002.0.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15832"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15832\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15841,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15832\/revisions\/15841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}