{"id":15363,"date":"2024-03-21T15:43:39","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T15:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=15363"},"modified":"2024-03-25T18:07:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T18:07:00","slug":"march-madness-picks-samford-vs-kansas-using-advanced-analytics-and-the-power-of-averages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/march-madness-picks-samford-vs-kansas-using-advanced-analytics-and-the-power-of-averages\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness Picks: Samford vs. Kansas (Using Advanced Analytics and the Power of Averages)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:362\">The NCAA Tournament is in full swing, and tonight&#8217;s Midwest Region first-round matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks (favorites by 7.5) and the Samford Bulldogs promises an intriguing clash. To make the most informed pick (remember, we&#8217;re not gambling!), let&#8217;s delve into a multi-model approach, incorporating advanced analytics, expert predictions, and good old-fashioned basketball knowledge.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:362\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15365\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford.png\" alt=\"kansas vs samford\" width=\"549\" height=\"266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford.png 603w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-600x291.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-300x145.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:38\"><strong>The Quantitative Edge: Model Mania<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:129\">First, we&#8217;ll consult the wisdom of the numbers. Here&#8217;s how some of the top NCAA BB prediction models stack up for tonight&#8217;s game:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"9:1-14:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:122\"><strong>Massey Ratings:<\/strong>\u00a0A beloved model that uses historical results and strength of schedule. Its prediction: Kansas by 12.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"10:1-10:113\"><strong>Sagarin Ratings:<\/strong>\u00a0Similar to Massey, but with more emphasis on recent performance. Prediction: Kansas by 10.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:117\"><strong>KenPom:<\/strong>\u00a0Focuses on offensive and defensive efficiency. Prediction: Kansas wins with a projected score of 78-68.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"12:1-12:75\"><strong>Barttorvik:<\/strong>\u00a0Another efficiency-based model. Prediction: Kansas by 11.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"13:1-14:0\"><strong>ESPN BPI:<\/strong>\u00a0A computer-generated power ranking. Prediction: Kansas by a sizeable margin (details not publicly available).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:36\"><strong>The Human Touch: Expert Opinions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:58\">Next, let&#8217;s consider the insights of experienced analysts:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"19:1-21:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:176\"><strong>BetQL:<\/strong>\u00a0This subscription service offers game predictions and model-driven insights. Their prediction leans towards Kansas, but with a confidence rating on the lower side.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"20:1-21:0\"><strong>Sportsline:<\/strong>\u00a0Another subscription service known for its expert picks. While specific predictions might be behind a paywall, their analysis could offer valuable nuggets on injuries, trends, or coaching matchups.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"22:1-22:30\"><strong>Pythagorean Wisdom and SOS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"24:1-24:201\">Now, let&#8217;s throw in some classic basketball analysis. The Pythagorean theorem, a formula using points scored and allowed, suggests a slightly closer game than the spread predicts. Here&#8217;s the breakdown:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"26:1-28:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"26:1-26:61\">Points Scored per Game (PPG): Kansas (82.3), Samford (74.1)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"27:1-28:0\">Points Allowed per Game (PAPG): Kansas (68.7), Samford (70.2)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"29:1-29:341\">Plugging these numbers into the formula, we get a predicted Kansas win by 6.4 points. Additionally, strength of schedule (SOS) plays a role. Kansas comes from the Big 12, a powerhouse conference, while Samford faced a less rigorous schedule in the Southern Conference. This suggests Kansas has been battle-tested against tougher competition.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"31:1-31:48\"><strong>Beyond the Numbers: Injuries and Intangibles<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:110\">However, the quantitative analysis doesn&#8217;t tell the whole story. Here are some additional factors to consider:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"35:1-39:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"35:1-35:183\"><strong>Injuries:<\/strong>\u00a0Are there any key players on either team battling injuries? A missing starter could significantly impact the outcome. Checking team news and injury reports is crucial.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"36:1-36:155\"><strong>Trends:<\/strong>\u00a0How have both teams been performing lately? Is Kansas on a winning streak, while Samford is slumping? Recent trends can offer valuable clues.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"38:1-39:0\"><strong>Intangibles:<\/strong>\u00a0Does Kansas have a history of overlooking lower-seeded teams? Is Samford particularly motivated for a historic upset? These are hard-to-quantify factors that can sometimes swing a game.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"29:1-29:305\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-15420\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-1.png\" alt=\"kansas vs samford\" width=\"592\" height=\"283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-1.png 718w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-1-600x287.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-1-300x143.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 592px) 100vw, 592px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"40:1-40:39\"><strong>The Verdict: Averaging for Accuracy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"42:1-42:250\">Based on the various models, expert opinions, and traditional analysis, a strong favorite emerges: Kansas. The spread of 7.5 seems fairly accurate, with most models predicting a comfortable Jayhawks victory by a slightly higher margin (8-12 points).<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"44:1-44:412\">However, here&#8217;s the twist: let&#8217;s take an average of all the point predictions \u2013 Massey (12), Sagarin (10), KenPom (78-68 \u2013 converting to points, it&#8217;s 10), Barttorvik (11), and a hypothetical 10 for ESPN BPI (assuming a similar margin to other models) \u2013 and add our own prediction based on the Pythagorean theorem (6.4). This gives us an average predicted margin of victory for Kansas.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"48:1-48:259\">So, for our pick, Kansas seems like the clear favorite. However, the margin of victory might be closer than the spread suggests. Additionally, factoring in potential intangibles and any unforeseen circumstances, a cautious approach might be wise.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"60:1-60:167\"><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><strong>PICK: take OVER 152<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The NCAA Tournament is in full swing, and tonight&#8217;s Midwest Region first-round matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks (favorites by 7.5) and the Samford Bulldogs promises<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":15420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[22,102],"tags":[517,607,74,57,87,90,290,169,511],"class_list":["post-15363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","category-college-basketball","tag-ai-analysis","tag-ai-basketball-prediction","tag-ai-sports-betting-picks","tag-ai-sports-picks-ats","tag-basketball-picks-against-the-spread","tag-college-basketball-free-picks","tag-kansas-jayhawks","tag-ncaa-basketball","tag-samford-bulldogs","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/kansas-vs-samford-1.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15363"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15478,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15363\/revisions\/15478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}