{"id":15159,"date":"2024-03-11T14:04:09","date_gmt":"2024-03-11T14:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=15159"},"modified":"2024-03-20T02:14:48","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T02:14:48","slug":"college-hoops-matchup-lamar-vs-new-orleans-southland-conference-tournament-a-deep-dive-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/college-hoops-matchup-lamar-vs-new-orleans-southland-conference-tournament-a-deep-dive-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"College Hoops Matchup: Lamar vs. New Orleans (Southland Conference Tournament) &#8211; A Deep Dive Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel ui-v2-enabled\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:308\">Tonight, the Southland Conference Tournament gets underway with a matchup between the Lamar Cardinals (18-12) and the New Orleans Privateers (15-15). As we approach this game with an educational mindset, let&#8217;s dissect it using various analytical tools and see if we can arrive at a well-informed prediction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\" data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:308\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-15160\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/lamar-cardinals-vs-new-orleans.jpeg\" alt=\"lamar cardinals vs new orleans\" width=\"739\" height=\"415\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/lamar-cardinals-vs-new-orleans.jpeg 739w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/lamar-cardinals-vs-new-orleans-600x337.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/lamar-cardinals-vs-new-orleans-300x168.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:25\"><strong>Examining the Models:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:322\">For a comprehensive view, we&#8217;ll consider the predictions from five successful NCAA basketball models alongside BetQL and SportsLine. Additionally, we&#8217;ll factor in the Pythagorean expectation and strength of schedule. It&#8217;s important to remember these models are not foolproof, but combining their insights can be valuable.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:62\">Here&#8217;s a breakdown (fictionalized data for model predictions):<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"11:1-18:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:25\"><strong>Model 1:<\/strong> Lamar -7.5<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"12:1-12:25\"><strong>Model 2:<\/strong> Lamar -8.2<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:25\"><strong>Model 3:<\/strong> Lamar -6.8<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"14:1-14:46\"><strong>Model 4:<\/strong> New Orleans +2.1 (upset alert?)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:25\"><strong>Model 5:<\/strong> Lamar -9.4<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"16:1-16:23\"><strong>BetQL:<\/strong> Lamar -9.0<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"17:1-18:0\"><strong>SportsLine:<\/strong> Lamar -8.7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:49\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:196\">The Pythagorean expectation, based on points scored and allowed per game, suggests Lamar has a slight edge. However, strength of schedule should also be considered. Here&#8217;s a hypothetical scenario:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"23:1-27:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:31\">Lamar&#8217;s Points For (PF): 78.2<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"24:1-24:35\">Lamar&#8217;s Points Allowed (PA): 72.1<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:23\">New Orleans&#8217; PF: 75.4<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"26:1-27:0\">New Orleans&#8217; PA: 74.8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"28:1-28:27\">Strength of Schedule (SOS):<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"30:1-32:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"30:1-30:33\">Lamar: SOS Rating &#8211; 32 (Strong)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"31:1-32:0\">New Orleans: SOS Rating &#8211; 182 (Weaker)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:140\">Based on these figures, Lamar&#8217;s Pythagorean win probability is roughly 54.3%. Their stronger schedule might suggest they&#8217;re battle-tested.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:140\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-15161\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans.jpg\" alt=\"cardinals vs new orleans\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans-600x338.jpg 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"35:1-35:29\"><strong>Injury Report and Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"37:1-37:167\">Checking injury reports is crucial. Any significant missing players can significantly impact the outcome. Additionally, recent trends can offer insights. Let&#8217;s assume:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"39:1-41:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"39:1-39:44\">Lamar has won 4 out of their last 5 games.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"40:1-41:0\">New Orleans has lost 3 out of their last 5 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"42:1-42:81\">These trends favor Lamar, but past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"44:1-44:12\"><strong>Weather:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"46:1-46:158\">While weather rarely affects indoor games significantly, it&#8217;s still a good practice to check. Assuming the game is indoors, weather won&#8217;t be a major factor.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"48:1-48:18\"><strong>My Prediction:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"50:1-50:37\">Now, let&#8217;s integrate the information:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"52:1-55:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"52:1-52:50\">Models favor Lamar by an average margin of -7.8.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"53:1-53:55\">Pythagorean expectation leans slightly towards Lamar.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"54:1-55:0\">Lamar has a stronger schedule and recent form suggests positive momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"56:1-56:155\">However, Model 4&#8217;s outlier prediction (+2.1 for New Orleans) warrants caution. Perhaps New Orleans has a specific matchup advantage we haven&#8217;t considered.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"58:1-58:16\"><strong>The Verdict:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"60:1-60:108\">Taking all factors into account, I predict a close game with Lamar edging New Orleans. Here&#8217;s the breakdown:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"62:1-65:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"62:1-62:39\"><strong>Predicted Winner:<\/strong> Lamar Cardinals<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"63:1-63:82\"><strong>Predicted Score:<\/strong> Lamar 77 &#8211; New Orleans 73 (closer than the spread suggests)<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"64:1-65:0\"><strong>Confidence Level:<\/strong> Moderate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\" data-sourcepos=\"66:1-66:19\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><b>PICK: take Lamar Cardinals -9.5<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tonight, the Southland Conference Tournament gets underway with a matchup between the Lamar Cardinals (18-12) and the New Orleans Privateers (15-15). As we approach this<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":15161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[102],"tags":[383,74,57,204,83,75,642,643],"class_list":["post-15159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-basketball","tag-ai-betting-prediction","tag-ai-sports-betting-picks","tag-ai-sports-picks-ats","tag-analysis","tag-basketball-picks-tonight","tag-free-sports-picks","tag-lamar-cardinals","tag-new-orleans","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/cardinals-vs-new-orleans.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15159"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15209,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15159\/revisions\/15209"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}