{"id":14745,"date":"2024-01-23T13:58:09","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T13:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=14745"},"modified":"2024-01-30T18:24:02","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T18:24:02","slug":"crunching-the-numbers-akron-zips-vs-ohio-bobcats-a-betting-model-mashup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/crunching-the-numbers-akron-zips-vs-ohio-bobcats-a-betting-model-mashup\/","title":{"rendered":"Crunching the Numbers: Akron Zips vs. Ohio Bobcats &#8211; A Betting Model Mashup"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:352\">College basketball&#8217;s Tuesday night slate throws up a fascinating clash in Akron, Ohio, where the home-standing Zips welcome the Ohio Bobcats. Separated by just 60 miles of highway, both teams come in hungry for bragging rights and conference positioning. But for bettors, the question is: how do we navigate the betting lines and find the winning pick?<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:352\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14748\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio.png\" alt=\"Zand and ohio\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio.png 800w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio-600x375.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio-768x480.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:364\">To answer that, we&#8217;re pulling out the big guns, combining insights from five top NCAA Basketball betting models, BetQL and SportsLine, alongside your request for a Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule analysis. We&#8217;ll factor in injuries, trends, and even the weather to give you the most informed pick possible. Buckle up, it&#8217;s time to dissect this matchup!<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:17\"><strong>Model Mashup:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"9:1-14:0\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:213\"><strong>KenPom:<\/strong> KenPom gives Akron a slight edge with a 56.1% win probability. Their adjusted efficiency ratings favor the Zips (112.9 offensive, 102.4 defensive) over the Bobcats (104.5 offensive, 104.0 defensive).<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"10:1-10:251\"><strong>BartTorvik:<\/strong> Torvik&#8217;s model leans even further towards Akron, projecting a 70% win chance. Their metrics paint a similar picture &#8211; the Zips boast a 106.5 offensive rating and 102.6 defensive rating compared to Ohio&#8217;s 103.2 and 102.1 respectively.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:153\"><strong>Massey:<\/strong> Massey Composite Index sits on the fence, awarding a 50.1% win probability to both teams. This highlights the potential for a close battle.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"12:1-12:113\"><strong>Sagarin:<\/strong> Sagarin&#8217;s ratings also suggest a nail-biter, predicting a 69.3 rating for Akron and 68.1 for Ohio.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"13:1-14:0\"><strong>ESPN BPI:<\/strong> ESPN&#8217;s Basketball Power Index favors Akron slightly, giving them a 65.4% win chance. Their key metric, the BPI, sits at 5.0 for the Zips and 0.3 for the Bobcats.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:22\"><strong>Pythagorean Punch:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:459\">Applying the Pythagorean theorem, which uses points scored and allowed to estimate win percentage, adds another layer of intrigue. Akron&#8217;s 86.2 average points scored and 67.5 allowed translates to a 16-4 record, nearly mirroring their actual 12-4. Similarly, Ohio&#8217;s 75.2 points scored and 74.3 allowed suggest a 9-8 record, lining up with their 8-9 performance. While not definitive, this shows both teams are performing close to their projected capabilities.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:35\"><strong>Strength of Schedule Smackdown:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:241\">Strength of schedule paints a fascinating picture. Akron has faced the 46th toughest schedule in the nation, while Ohio has navigated the 144th. This might explain Akron&#8217;s slightly better record despite not having a dominant scoring offense.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:18\"><strong>Injury Impact:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:215\">Both teams are relatively healthy, with Ohio missing Isaiah Ezuma (who averages 5.4 points in 18.3 minutes) while Akron comes in at full strength. This shouldn&#8217;t significantly impact the overall balance of the game.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:18\"><strong>Trend Tracker:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"29:1-29:271\">Akron has been historically strong at home, winning 14 of their last 17 games at James A. Rhodes Arena. However, they&#8217;ve recently stumbled, losing back-to-back home games. The Bobcats, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, dropping 8 of their last 10 away games.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"31:1-31:18\"><strong>Weather Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:101\">No dramatic weather events are expected in Akron on Tuesday night, so you can rule out that variable.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:101\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14741\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-scaled-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/11-1568x1045.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"35:1-35:19\"><strong>Final Forecast:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"37:1-37:233\">Combining all the data points, it seems like a tight game is to be expected. While Akron has home-court advantage and slightly better metrics, Ohio&#8217;s desperation for a win and historical road struggles for the Zips make it a toss-up.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"39:1-39:35\"><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><b>PICK: take UNDER 145 = WIN<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>College basketball&#8217;s Tuesday night slate throws up a fascinating clash in Akron, Ohio, where the home-standing Zips welcome the Ohio Bobcats. Separated by just 60<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":14748,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[22,102],"tags":[561,226],"class_list":["post-14745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","category-college-basketball","tag-akron-zips","tag-ohio-bobcats","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ZandOhio.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14745"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14745\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14847,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14745\/revisions\/14847"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}