{"id":14406,"date":"2023-12-26T19:27:03","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T19:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=14406"},"modified":"2024-01-02T20:12:23","modified_gmt":"2024-01-02T20:12:23","slug":"pop-tarts-bowl-no-18-nc-state-vs-no-25-kansas-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/pop-tarts-bowl-no-18-nc-state-vs-no-25-kansas-state\/","title":{"rendered":"Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:47\">The Pop-Tarts Bowl is shaping up to be a close battle between the NC State Wolfpack and the Kansas State Wildcats. AI models and traditional metrics like Pythagorean theorem slightly favor Kansas State, but don&#8217;t count out NC State with their recent winning streak. Injuries and trends could play a role, while the weather won&#8217;t be a factor in this indoor game. Read on for a deeper dive into the matchup and my final prediction!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pop-Tarts Bowl<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> Thursday, Dec. 28<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time:<\/strong> 5:45 p.m. ET<\/p>\n<p><strong>Location:<\/strong> Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"3:1-3:47\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-14407\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Pop-Tarts-Bowl-No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State.png\" alt=\"Pop-Tarts Bowl No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State\" width=\"559\" height=\"276\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Pop-Tarts-Bowl-No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State.png 587w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Pop-Tarts-Bowl-No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State-300x148.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-7:10\"><strong>Kickoff:<\/strong> Thursday, December 28, 5:45 PM ET<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:35\"><strong>AI Insights from the Top Models<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:59\">I&#8217;ve consulted the top AI sports betting models, including:<\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:1\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:1\"><strong>BetQL<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"14:1-14:39\"><strong>ESPN&#8217;s Football Power Index (FPI)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:16\"><strong>SportsLine<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"16:1-16:24\"><strong>The Action Network<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"17:1-18:0\"><strong>The Prediction Machine<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:163\">These models have varying methodologies, but they all leverage advanced analytics and historical data to predict outcomes. Here are their average predicted scores:<\/p>\n<div class=\"horizontal-scroll-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"table-block-component\">\n<div class=\"table-block\">\n<div class=\"table-content\">\n<table data-sourcepos=\"21:1-28:50\">\n<tbody>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:31\">\n<th data-sourcepos=\"21:0-21:9\"><strong>Model<\/strong><\/th>\n<th data-sourcepos=\"21:11-21:30\"><strong>Predicted Score<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:36\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"23:0-23:5\">BetQL<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"23:7-23:35\">Kansas State 28, NC State 24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"24:1-24:43\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"24:0-24:8\">ESPN FPI<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"24:10-24:42\">Kansas State 27.9, NC State 24.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:45\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"25:0-25:10\">SportsLine<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"25:12-25:44\">Kansas State 27.4, NC State 24.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"26:1-26:53\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"26:0-26:18\">The Action Network<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"26:20-26:52\">Kansas State 28.2, NC State 25.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:57\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"27:0-27:22\">The Prediction Machine<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"27:24-27:56\">Kansas State 27.1, NC State 24.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"28:1-28:50\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"28:0-28:11\"><strong>Average<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"28:13-28:49\"><strong>Kansas State 27.7, NC State 24.7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"30:1-30:48\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"32:1-32:213\">I&#8217;ve also applied the Pythagorean theorem, which estimates a team&#8217;s expected win percentage based on points scored and allowed. Considering strength of schedule, the results suggest a slight edge for Kansas State:<\/p>\n<div class=\"horizontal-scroll-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"table-block-component\">\n<div class=\"table-block\">\n<div class=\"table-content\">\n<table data-sourcepos=\"34:1-37:24\">\n<tbody>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"34:1-34:53\">\n<th data-sourcepos=\"34:0-34:8\"><strong>Team<\/strong><\/th>\n<th data-sourcepos=\"34:10-34:32\"><strong>Pythagorean Win %<\/strong><\/th>\n<th data-sourcepos=\"34:34-34:52\"><strong>Adjusted Win %<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"36:1-36:28\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"36:0-36:12\">Kansas State<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"36:14-36:20\">55.6%<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"36:22-36:27\">56.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-sourcepos=\"37:1-37:24\">\n<td data-sourcepos=\"37:0-37:8\">NC State<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"37:10-37:16\">54.4%<\/td>\n<td data-sourcepos=\"37:18-37:23\">53.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"39:1-39:33\"><strong>Injuries, Trends, and Weather<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"41:1-42:121\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"41:1-41:291\"><strong>Injuries:<\/strong> NC State will be without wide receiver Demarcus Jones II and defensive back Rakeim Ashford. Kansas State has a longer injury list, including quarterback Christian Moore, running backs RJ Garcia II and Ben Sinnott, wide receiver Asa Newsom, and defensive lineman Daniel Green.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"42:1-42:121\"><strong>Trends:<\/strong> NC State is 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 games, while Kansas State is 1-4 against the spread in its last 5.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"43:1-44:0\"><strong>Weather:<\/strong> The game will be played indoors at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, so weather is not a factor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"45:1-45:42\"><strong>Recent News and Transfer Portal Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"47:1-47:103\">There are no reports of players from either team planning to sit out due to transfer portal intentions.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"47:1-47:103\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-14408\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State.png\" alt=\"No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State\" width=\"595\" height=\"268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State.png 782w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State-600x270.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State-768x346.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"49:1-49:17\"><strong>My Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"51:1-51:436\">After considering all of the data and factors, I&#8217;m leaning towards <strong>Kansas State to cover the spread<\/strong> and win by a score of <strong>28-24<\/strong>. While NC State has momentum and a solid defense, Kansas State&#8217;s overall strength of schedule and home-field advantage (despite being a neutral site game) give them a slight edge. The Wildcats also have a more experienced quarterback in Adrian Martinez, who could make the difference in a close game.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"55:1-55:281\"><strong>PICK: take OVER 47.5\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Loss<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Pop-Tarts Bowl is shaping up to be a close battle between the NC State Wolfpack and the Kansas State Wildcats. AI models and traditional<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":14408,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[33,5],"tags":[74,57,56,38,144,211,379,380,11,91],"class_list":["post-14406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","category-example-3","tag-ai-sports-betting-picks","tag-ai-sports-picks-ats","tag-bard-college-football-picks","tag-college-football-predictions","tag-football","tag-free-ncaa-bowl-game-picks","tag-kansas-state-wildcats","tag-nc-state-wolfpack","tag-nfl","tag-sports-picks-nation","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/No.-18-NC-State-vs.-No.-25-Kansas-State.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14406"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14406\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14463,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14406\/revisions\/14463"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}