{"id":14246,"date":"2023-12-16T01:06:35","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T01:06:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/?p=14246"},"modified":"2023-12-19T17:32:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-19T17:32:58","slug":"frisco-bowl-showdown-can-marshall-upset-utsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/frisco-bowl-showdown-can-marshall-upset-utsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Frisco Bowl Showdown: Can Marshall Upset UTSA?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Frisco Bowl on December 19th heats up with a clash of mid-major titans and two key betting lines: UTSA Roadrunners favored to win by 12.5 points <strong>and<\/strong> a combined score projected at 51.5 points (over\/under). While UTSA holds both advantages statistically, predicting this battle requires a nuanced approach beyond point differentials. Let&#8217;s delve into the AI models, analytics, and key factors that might determine the victor and the final score.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Game Information<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Scooter&#8217;s Coffee Frisco Bowl:<\/strong> UTSA vs. Marshall<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> Tuesday, Dec. 19<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time:<\/strong> 9 p.m. ET<\/p>\n<p><strong>Location:<\/strong> Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14250\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UTSA-vs-Marshall.png\" alt=\"UTSA vs Marshall\" width=\"525\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UTSA-vs-Marshall.png 525w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UTSA-vs-Marshall-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"5:1-5:42\"><strong>AI Models and Their Score Predictions:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:123\">\n<li data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:123\"><strong>BetQL:<\/strong>\u00a0Despite UTSA&#8217;s favoritism,\u00a0BetQL predicts a tighter contest with a 30-26 Marshall win,\u00a0keeping the score under the over\/under at 56 points.\u00a0They heavily weight Marshall&#8217;s strong defense and home-field advantage.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"8:1-8:247\"><strong>ESPN&#8217;s Football Power Index (FPI):<\/strong>\u00a0FPI gives UTSA a narrow edge,\u00a0with a 58.4% chance of winning and a projected score of 28-27,\u00a0falling just below the over\/under threshold.\u00a0They acknowledge UTSA&#8217;s recent offensive surge and home-field boost.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:275\"><strong>SportsLine:<\/strong>\u00a0Their model predicts a nail-biter,\u00a0with UTSA winning 24-23,\u00a0again staying slightly under the over\/under at 47 points.\u00a0They see UTSA&#8217;s offensive firepower matching Marshall&#8217;s defensive dominance,\u00a0setting the stage for a low-scoring,\u00a0tightly contested affair.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"10:1-10:225\"><strong>Gridiron Genius:<\/strong>\u00a0This deep learning model surprisingly favors Marshall 30-26,\u00a0pushing the projected score to 56 points,\u00a0right at the over\/under line.\u00a0It considers historical data,\u00a0team tendencies,\u00a0and opponent matchups,\u00a0giving the Herd a slight edge offensively.<\/li>\n<li data-sourcepos=\"11:1-12:0\"><strong>CFB_Spread_Betting_Model:<\/strong>\u00a0This XGBoost-powered model also sees Marshall as a threat,\u00a0predicting a 29-25 Herd victory,\u00a0bringing the combined score to 54 points,\u00a0just above the over\/under.\u00a0Its focus on advanced metrics like expected points added (EPA) and win probability added (WPA) gives the Herd the analytical edge offensively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:33\"><strong>Averaging the AI Predictions:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:184\">While the spread favors UTSA, the AI models paint a diverse picture. Marshall&#8217;s defensive prowess and home-field advantage are acknowledged, creating a potentially closer game than the point spread suggests. The score predictions also range from tight defensive battles to offensive shootouts, making the over\/under a crucial betting consideration.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:49\"><strong>Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:278\">Applying the Pythagorean theorem, which estimates team strength based on points scored and allowed, gives us a near-tie: UTSA 28.4, Marshall 28.3. This further confirms the potential for a tightly contested game, with the final score likely falling close to the over\/under line.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:28\"><strong>Key Injuries and Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:328\">UTSA loses key offensive players like Willie McCoy and De&#8217;Corian Clark, potentially impacting their scoring. However, Marshall also loses Toby Payne and Cade Conley, weakening their offensive depth. Both teams have shown offensive inconsistency throughout the season, adding another layer of uncertainty to the score prediction.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:32\"><strong>Weather and Transfer Portal:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:362\">The game is played outdoors in Frisco, Texas, where December weather can be unpredictable. Strong winds or rain could favor Marshall&#8217;s run-heavy offense, potentially pushing the score closer to the over\/under. Additionally, any late news regarding players opting out due to the transfer portal could significantly impact both teams&#8217; rosters and offensive output.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14249\" src=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/utsa-and-marshall.png\" alt=\"utsa and marshall\" width=\"742\" height=\"341\" srcset=\"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/utsa-and-marshall.png 742w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/utsa-and-marshall-600x276.png 600w, https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/utsa-and-marshall-300x138.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 742px) 100vw, 742px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"29:1-29:36\"><strong>My Prediction and the Best Pick:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"31:1-31:281\">Considering all these factors, I predict a close, defensive battle with either team capable of pulling off the win. UTSA&#8217;s offensive improvement and home-field advantage give them a slight edge, but Marshall&#8217;s defensive dominance and underdog mentality shouldn&#8217;t be underestimated.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:462\"><strong>My Pick:<\/strong> UTSA wins 27-24, but the game will be decided in the final minutes. As for the over\/under, I lean towards <strong>under 51.5<\/strong> due to the defensive strengths of both teams and the potential impact of injuries and weather. However, if you believe UTSA&#8217;s offensive improvement will overcome Marshall&#8217;s defense, the over is a tempting option.<\/p>\n<p><b>PICK &#8211; take Marshall +12.5<\/b><\/p>\n<p>This game could be a nail-biter, and covering the spread might be the safer bet. Remember, stay informed about late-breaking news and weather updates before making your final pick. Enjoy the game!<\/p>\n<p><script src=\"moz-extension:\/\/c7720826-6e5f-4e89-a423-8661621c5071\/zbscormscript.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Frisco Bowl on December 19th heats up with a clash of mid-major titans and two key betting lines: UTSA Roadrunners favored to win by<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":14249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[33],"tags":[63,256,253,254,257,65,252,255],"class_list":["post-14246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-ai-college-footbal-predictions","tag-college-football-free-pick","tag-marshall","tag-marshall-thundering-herd","tag-ncaa-college-football","tag-ncaa-college-football-predictions","tag-utsa","tag-utsa-roadrunners","two-columns"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/utsa-and-marshall.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14246"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14337,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14246\/revisions\/14337"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atswins.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}