Welcome to this year\u2019s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I\u2019ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 16 years now, and those of you who\u2019ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My arm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team\u2019s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year, or who might be breakout prospects for the 2024 rankings, will appear the week of Feb. 6.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s list is, to be blunt, not great \u2014 we had so many graduations in 2022, including seven of my top 10 and more than 30 of my top 100, that the best 50 or 100 or 150 prospects in the minors are now, in bulk, not up to the level of talent that it usually is. That might be pandemic-related, because so many players lost a year or more of development. It might also have to do with MLB\u2019s decision to eliminate all short-season leagues between the complexes and Low A, a move that especially hurts teenaged players who aren\u2019t quite ready for full-season ball after they\u2019ve finished a summer in the Arizona or Florida Complex Leagues. A draft class in 2022 that was generally seen as mediocre, with very little college pitching, didn\u2019t help matters either. That said, there are a lot of potential superstars at the top of the list, and as you move through it, you\u2019ll see a lot of players with the upside to be stars (I\u2019m thinking 5+ WAR, roughly), but who might have a lower probability of reaching those ceilings.<\/p>\n
I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn\u2019t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers \u2014 but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won\u2019t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.<\/p>\n
I refer to grades throughout the prospect rankings on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major-league average, 80 is the highest possible score, and 20 is the lowest. I\u2019ll also use similar language, referring to tools that are above (a grade of 55) or below average (45 or less), or referring to plus (60) or plus-plus (70) or maybe you should try another line of work (35). I try to discuss players\u2019 tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.<\/p>\n
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2023, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active major-league roster heading into this season. Days on the roster in September now count against the rookie threshold, whereas days on the active roster in any September prior to 2020 do not count, a change MLB made to the rookie eligibility rules in 2020. Thus new Arizona catcher Gabriel Moreno, who had 61 days on the Blue Jays\u2019 active roster last year, no longer qualifies. I also exclude players who have come here as free agents from Japan\u2019s NPB or Korea\u2019s KBO, because while they are rookies (and I would vote for them if I have a Rookie of the Year ballot), they are not prospects by my definition.<\/p>\n
Note: All ages are seasonal ages, which refers to a player\u2019s age at the midpoint of the year, so July 1, 2023.<\/i><\/p>\n1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks<\/b><\/h2>\n
Age:<\/b> 23 (as of 7\/1\/2023) | 5-10 | 165 pounds
Bats:<\/b> Left | Throws:<\/b> Left
Drafted:<\/b> No. 16 in 2019<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 16<\/p>\n
Carroll came into 2022 with just 18 career games outside of the complex league, and finished the year with 1.2 rWAR in 32 games in the big leagues, capping off a year where he hit 28 homers, stole 33 bases, drew 75 walks, and, most importantly of all, stayed healthy. Carroll was the 16th pick in the 2019 draft out of a private high school in Seattle and had a tremendous pro debut that summer, but missed 2020 due to the pandemic, and then dislocated his shoulder a week into his 2021 campaign, ending his season. He\u2019s an 80 runner by Sprint Speed, and a true center fielder who gets great reads and has the closing speed to go get the ball in the gaps. Despite his stature, he makes solid contact and has shown plus power everywhere he\u2019s played, including his stint in the majors, along with very advanced plate discipline for someone with his limited playing experience. He did struggle with high-end velocity in his month in the majors, so he has at least one clear area for improvement heading into his first full major-league season, but didn\u2019t have the same trouble with velocity in the minors. For a player to miss this much time and perform at the level Carroll did, jumping right to Double A and hitting .303\/.422\/.495 between that level and Triple A (in two hitter-friendly ballparks), speaks to both his pure athleticism and his incredible feel for the game. The Diamondbacks are building a tremendous core of young players, and Carroll will be one of their centerpieces for a long time.<\/p>\n
2. Gunnar Henderson, SS\/3B, Baltimore Orioles<\/h2>\n
Age:<\/strong> 22 | 6-2 | 210 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b>\u00a073<\/p>\n Henderson has made incredible strides as a player even just in the past two years, from swing adjustments to physical development to going from a raw athlete on defense to a potentially elite glove at third base who can stay at shortstop too. The Orioles\u2019 second-round pick in 2019, signed to a first-round bonus, Henderson performed better in High A than he did in Low A in 2021, moved up to Double A and hit better there than he had in High A, only slowing down when he reached Triple A last year at 21, hitting a measly .288\/.390\/.504 in half a season there. He\u2019s simplified his swing since he was drafted, ditching the toe-tap and using his lower half more to generate power, resulting in a more fluid swing and better adjustments to different pitch types. He\u2019s at least an average defender at short, more than good enough to stay at the position, but is at least a 70 defender at third, and could have a Scott Rolen-like upside if he ends up at the hot corner. Henderson has been much better against right-handed pitching, with a .208\/.316\/.354 line against lefties at all levels last year, although that\u2019s not unusual for a young left-handed-hitting prospect, and there\u2019s no reason to think he won\u2019t improve with experience. Rolen\u2019s a Hall of Famer, so I don\u2019t throw that comparison around lightly, but Henderson looks like a 25+ homer, high OBP guy who spends fifteen years on the left side of an infield.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 6-1 | 165 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b>\u00a0Unranked<\/p>\n Chourio won\u2019t even turn 19 until March, but he was the second-best hitter in the Low-A Carolina League thanks to a .600 slugging percentage there that ranked second only to a 23-year-old college product. The Brewers bumped him up to High A, where he continued to hit and show power, so much so that they gave him a brief cup of coffee in Double A to end the year, which probably means he\u2019ll start there in 2023 as a true 19-year-old. He\u2019s a plus-plus runner who still hasn\u2019t grown into his lanky 6-foot-1 frame yet, which is scary considering the impact he\u2019s already showing with the bat. A former shortstop, he\u2019s taken off on both sides of the ball since the Brewers moved him to center field coming out of the pandemic, adjusting very quickly to the outfield to the point where he projects as a plus defender in center. He\u2019s had on-and-off elbow issues going back to when he signed, and missed a week and a half with a sore elbow this August, although he returned to hit three homers in his first three games and four in his first five. Chourio is very aggressive at the plate, walking only 7.3 percent of the time last year and striking out 26.8 percent of the time, and he really struggled in that brief time in Double A as pitchers could exploit that lack of discipline \u2014 but he was also the youngest player to get a single at-bat in Double A in 2022. He\u2019s the same age as many high school seniors who\u2019ll be drafted this June, and he already has a 20-homer pro season under his belt. With his tools and ability to provide value on defense up the middle, he has as much upside as any player on this list.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-5 | 200 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 69<\/p>\n With the possible exception of Chourio, de la Cruz is probably the highest-upside prospect on the top 100 \u2014 it\u2019s 80 power, 80 speed, and at least a 70 arm, with crazy bat speed and quick-twitch actions all over the place. De la Cruz hit 28 homers between High A and Double A last year, with a .304\/.359\/.586 composite line, along with 47 steals (89 percent), but a 30.7 percent strikeout rate that speaks to his overaggressiveness. He has the bat speed and coverage to make good contact with pitches out of the strike zone, but also has issues with pitches in the zone, especially fastballs in the upper half. That\u2019s not unusual for a very young hitter who\u2019s learned from experience that he can mash against almost anything, but it\u2019s also not the ideal formula for major-league success, so he will have to tighten up his pitch selection going forward. He\u2019s got the actions, speed, and arm for shortstop, although at 6-5 he\u2019s at the upper end of the size spectrum for the position, and there\u2019s a good chance he\u2019ll outgrow it and end up at third or in center. Nobody listed at 6-5 or taller has played shortstop regularly in the majors, and only seven guys at least that tall have played it at all, notably Troy Glaus. That\u2019s not a guarantee, but it\u2019s the base rate here, and shows the bar de la Cruz has to clear to stay at the position. However, this kind of bat speed, power, and foot speed also means he could be a star at pretty much any position where he plays, as it\u2019s easy 30-35 home run power and the potential for high BABIPs even if he strikes out a quarter of the time. And if at some point he makes a big move in his pitch selection and recognition, he might end up the best player in baseball.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-5 | 220 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 30<\/p>\n Walker has shown an advanced approach at the plate from the moment he made his debut to start 2021, moving to Double A last year in his age-20 season and finishing third in the Texas League in slugging and seventh in OBP despite being the league\u2019s youngest everyday player on Opening Day and one of only two 20-year-olds to qualify in that league (along with teammate Masyn Winn). Walker is a big man, 6-5, listed at 220 pounds but stronger than that already, and already makes above-average quality contact, with more power projected as he continues filling out and catches up to the age of his leagues. His swing is very easy and simple, so while he doesn\u2019t have elite bat speed, he gets the bat to the zone quickly enough to hit better velocity. He\u2019s primarily a fastball hitter still, struggling more with soft stuff down and away, relatively speaking, although his zone awareness is ahead of most 20-year-old hitters\u2019, and it\u2019s hard to beat him anywhere on the inner half. He\u2019s a below-average runner who was already challenged at third base, and since the Cardinals have Brooks Robinson over there, they\u2019ve moved Walker to right field. After Aug. 1, he played just two games at third base, and all his AFL time came in right. He\u2019s a good enough athlete that he should be at least a 55 defender out there, if not more. He might be a 30-homer guy, although it\u2019s more likely he\u2019s a 20-25 homer guy who posts high averages and OBPs, maybe the sort of player who gets underrated because he\u2019s not exceptionally fast or toolsy but offers consistently stellar production over a long period.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-3 | 219 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 13<\/p>\n Cartaya played just a month in 2021 before an injury ended his season, so while that month was impressive (he hit .298\/.409\/.614 in Low A at age 19, in just 31 games), there was a \u201cprove-it\u201d sentiment among some scouts and other clubs. Well, Cartaya went back to Low A, hit .260\/.405\/.550, then moved up to High A and hit .251\/.379\/.476 there, finishing the year with 22 homers and 63 walks in 95 games, all while continuing to improve behind the plate. Cartaya hammers fastballs and offspeed, posting high exit velocities and often out-muscling pitchers with his pure strength, while already showing a good feel for the strike zone even before he turned 21 in September. He\u2019s already better on defense than he was a year ago, but he can catch the ball too close to his body, limiting him probably to fringe-average receiving at his peak, and has had some trouble throwing out runners despite plus arm strength. None of that will matter if he continues to hit for power and get on base like he has so far, and there\u2019s every reason in tools and performance to date to say that he will.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 5-10 | 233 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 8<\/p>\n \u00c1lvarez is the highest-ranked player from last year\u2019s list who didn\u2019t lose his eligibility through playing too much in the majors in 2022, although he did make his debut at the very end of the season and hit his first homer. He had a tremendous start to his year in Double A, hitting .277\/.368\/.553 with 18 homers in just 67 games for Binghamton, but ran into some bad luck in Triple A \u2014 he continued to make consistent, hard contact, but his BABIP dropped 30 points and his strikeout rate rose just a bit to 26 percent, resulting in a .234\/.382\/.443 line for Syracuse. He has a tremendous swing for generating that hard contact, with great balance throughout, excellent hand acceleration, and good use of his lower half to drive the ball. Scouts were more bearish on his defense when he moved to Triple A and had to catch better stuff, although the consensus is still that he can stay there, even just as a bat-first catcher who could stand to clean up some of his blocking and receiving. I think he can handle it, even if he\u2019s only a soft 45 on defense, because the bat will make up for any of those deficiencies. Despite the drop in his average in Triple A, his swing and history of hard contact point to stronger batting averages as well as OBPs with 25-30 homer power at his peak.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 5-11 | 180 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 10<\/p>\n Volpe got off to a terrible start in 2022, hitting .203\/.312\/.373 through the end of May \u2014 and that\u2019s with a four-hit game on May 28. He\u2019d been working through some swing changes in those two months, but in late May\/early June he decided to go back to his old swing, and it showed, as the 2019 first-rounder hit .279\/.369\/.528 the rest of the way for Double-A Somerset, earning a September promotion to Triple A to finish the year. Volpe has a beautiful right-handed swing \u2014 I don\u2019t know why anyone would try to mess with it \u2014 that produces a lot of quality contact and keeps the ball in the air for extra-base power, although I think he\u2019ll settle in as more of a high-doubles guy who might hit 20 homers than a 30-homer guy. He\u2019s a 55-60 runner but it plays up on the bases because he has great instincts both for reading pitchers and reading situations. While at shortstop, he\u2019s got great hands and gets himself into the right position to make plays more than most shortstops I see. I caught a lot of Volpe last year, and he was playing a different game than his teammates. We talk about how the game speeds up for some players as they move up the ladder; Volpe plays like the game is too slow and he\u2019s waiting for it to catch up. I don\u2019t know for a fact that the Yankees have sat out the free-agent shortstop market because they think Volpe\u2019s a star, but I<\/em> think Volpe\u2019s a star, so I can hardly blame them.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b>\u00a031<\/p>\n Lawlar\u2019s 2021 pro debut ended after two games when he injured his shoulder and had season-ending surgery, making his 2022 season even more remarkable. As a 19-year-old with all of six professional plate appearances before this year, he hit .351\/.447\/.603 in Low A, then hit .288\/.385\/.478 in High A before finally struggling in 20 games in Double A, where he was one of only three teenagers in the Texas League all season. Lawlar has a very advanced approach for his age and experience level, and even in Double A he didn\u2019t get overly aggressive or wild, struggling a little with pitchers who changed speeds more effectively against him. He gets into a good position to start his swing and has excellent hand acceleration, with good loft for line-drive power. He\u2019s a true shortstop with the hands and arm to stay there, needing work on his footwork and making routine plays consistently, while his instincts and game clock are above-average and let him succeed even when he isn\u2019t in the right position to start a play. It\u2019s easy to see why there was talk early in 2021 that he might be the first pick, as he projects to hit for a high average and get on base, with maybe 50-55 power, while playing above-average to plus defense at shortstop. Once he gets more reps in Double A and sees more changeups, he should adjust quickly, given how fast he adjusted last year just to better velocity and seeing more sliders. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised at all to see him debut in 2023.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-8 | 220 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 64<\/p>\n P\u00e9rez won\u2019t even turn 20 until April, but the Marlins\u2019 top prospect \u2014 and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball \u2014 is certainly all grown up, as he\u2019s 6-8, pushing 6-9, and has already conquered Double A. P\u00e9rez already sits in the upper 90s, reaching 99 mph in the Futures Game last summer, coming from a low slot that mitigates some of the benefit he might get from his height but that makes it nearly impossible for right-handed batters to see the ball out of his hand. He pairs it with a plus changeup that has hard tumbling action and looks just like the fastball out of his hand, leaving him with no platoon split at all in 2022, while he also has a mid-80s slider that has a short, mostly vertical break, enough to keep right-handers from sitting on the heater. He\u2019s a strike-thrower who walked two or fewer batters in 14 of his first 15 starts last year, although his command is probably a full grade below his control right now. Pitchers this tall do not have a great track record of health, and P\u00e9rez himself has missed time in the last two years, getting shut down for about five weeks in August and September last year due to \u201carm fatigue,\u201d so there is real risk here around his durability. If he just stays healthy, though, he has No. 1 starter upside. There is no one in the minors with this kind of stuff, deception, and ability to throw strikes.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-3 | 188 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 18<\/p>\n Mayer had a tough full-season debut in 2022, as he missed a month with a sprained wrist in the first half and struggled to drive the ball for four or five weeks after he returned, and then fought through some back tightness in July that may also have hurt his power. (I saw him twice, once when he first tried to come back from the wrist sprain and wasn\u2019t ready, and the other in the game when his back tightened up on him. Perhaps I should never try to see him again.) The good news is despite the injury troubles, he still showed an extremely advanced approach at the plate, even when he wasn\u2019t at full strength, and finished strongly in Low A and after an early August promotion to High A, hitting .287\/.435\/.492 from July 1 through the end of the season. Mayer has a smooth left-handed swing that should get him to plus power when he fills out, with loft in his finish and evident hand strength already. I haven\u2019t seen great bat speed from him, bearing in mind I am putting a rare Sicilian curse on him any time I\u2019m in the ballpark, and he might be a high-OBP, 25+ homer guy who doesn\u2019t hit for high averages if that\u2019s the case. He\u2019s a no-doubt shortstop with great actions and quick hands \u2014 at least, when I haven\u2019t graced him with my presence and caused his vestigial organs to turn necrotic mid-play \u2014 and a plus arm. I know I haven\u2019t seen his best, and I take responsibility for my actions. I still think he\u2019s going to be a star.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-2 | 200 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 82<\/p>\n Harrison ranked second in minor-league baseball in strikeouts in 2022, a year after he finished ninth while throwing just 98 innings on the season, and he does it with huge stuff and deception and pretty good feel. He\u2019s 92-94 mph, touching 97, with a plus slider at 80-82, showing good shape to the pitch, with the depth of a curveball but the sharpness of a power slider. He has a changeup that flashes average with good bottom, but uses his slider in changeup counts even to right-handers. Harrison has a very deceptive delivery, with a low three-quarter slot and an arm action that keeps the ball behind his body for a long time, although he struggles with timing and his arm can be late relative to his front leg, a potential red flag for future injuries. If he stays healthy, which he has so far in pro ball, this is No. 1 starter stuff, and while it\u2019s not Chris Sale\u2019s body or arm swing, there are definitely enough similarities to think that\u2019s Harrison\u2019s ceiling.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20| 6-7 | 215 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n The Phillies took a high school pitcher with their first-round pick in 2021, the second time in a row they\u2019d done so, and so far both of those prospects look very promising. Painter was the second of those two picks and he\u2019s quickly become their best prospect, dominating at three levels as a 19-year-old last year with two plus pitches and a good chance he\u2019ll end up with a third. He\u2019s huge, 6-7, listed at 215 but probably 10-15 pounds stronger than that already, and could just bully hitters with his fastball in Low A, where he started 2022. He\u2019s already working at 94-97 mph over full starts and can reach 99, coming from a high three-quarter slot that makes his two-plane curveball at 76-81 even more devastating. He also throws both pitches for strikes, even improving his control as he moved up the ladder \u2014 he walked just two of 109 hitters he faced in Double A, his lowest walk rate at any of the three levels where he pitched. He does have a changeup that projects to a 55 but he barely uses it, while he has a slider that is behind the curveball in effectiveness and isn\u2019t as hard as it should be given his fastball velocity. Painter won\u2019t even turn 20 until April, so he has a lot of time to continue developing, but also a lot of time to get hurt, unfortunately. His delivery is good and he repeats it well, but we\u2019ve seen way too many guys like him get hurt on their way to the majors to ignore the possibility here. If your crystal ball says he\u2019ll stay healthy, he\u2019s a top-10 prospect in baseball, and might have a case to be in the top 6.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 6-4 | 180 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> Ineligible<\/p>\n Jones was the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 draft class and went second to the Diamondbacks, one pick behind Jackson Holliday, who went No. 1 to the Orioles. Jones, like his father Andruw, is a superb defensive center fielder with plus power; unfortunately, like the two Arizona prospects ahead of him on this list, he hurt his shoulder on a swing and needed season-ending surgery, in this case before he even got his first professional at-bat. Jones is already taller than his father at 6-4 and has begun to fill out his frame, so while there are similarities, he\u2019s going to be a different player. He\u2019s a plus defender now and could end up a 70 or 80 with experience, while at the plate, he has shown plus-plus raw and game power, although he\u2019s more power than hit right now, and will have to show a different approach in pro ball than he did in high school, where he could more easily wait for a pitch he could destroy. He\u2019s a plus runner now but may slide toward average as he matures physically. He has an enormous ceiling as an elite defensive center fielder who hits 30 homers a year and maybe steals 20 bags with a solid OBP, with a reasonable floor as a regular even if he doesn\u2019t hit for much average. He could easily be the No. 1 prospect in baseball at this time next year.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23| 6-5 | 220 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 14<\/p>\n Rodriguez really should have seen the majors last year, but he strained his right latissimus dorsi (\u201clat\u201d) muscle \u2014 an injury that is notorious for how long it takes to heal \u2014 in June, after which the Orioles shut him down for three months. He did return to pitch in September but Baltimore chose not to call him up for his debut, which I assume will come this April instead. When he did pitch, he was his usual self, sitting 95-96 mph, touching 99, with a plus changeup, two distinct breaking balls that are both average or slightly above, and even a cutter he threw a few times a game. The changeup is so good that it\u2019s even his best pitch against right-handed batters, making up for the slider, which is his worst offering, with just average spin and break and not much velocity separation from the curveball. He could improve the slider given his incredible arm strength, but he also may not need the fourth pitch. I\u2019ve heard more from scouts who view Rodriguez not as a No. 1 starter, but as a good No. 2 for a long time, especially since he has no history of arm trouble. It\u2019s also possible that the fastball\/change combo is so good that he ends up an ace even without a plus breaking pitch to go with them.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-7 | 240 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Wood has done nothing but hit in pro ball since the Padres took him in the second round in 2021 and paid him a high first-round bonus to draw him away from Mississippi State. He\u2019s since gone to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, playing 21 games for Low-A Fredericksburg before an injury ended his season, but his total pro line between the Arizona Complex League and two Low-A teams sits at .326\/.430\/.536 with a 14 percent walk rate and 24 percent strikeout rate. Wood is an exceptional athlete, a plus-plus runner even at 240-plus pounds who glides to catch balls in center field, and he can show 70 raw power, although that hasn\u2019t manifested as much yet in games. He\u2019s also shown a much better approach in pro ball than he did as an amateur, which of course is part of why he went in the second round despite several 70s on his scouting report. He does have some swing and miss in his game and his swing can get long, which is hardly surprising for a 6-7 hitter \u2014 I\u2019ve written in a few places about the high risk of position players that tall. I do think he\u2019s going to struggle more with contact as he moves up the ladder, but he has the power, speed, and defense to succeed even with a strikeout rate over 25 percent, and with the patience he\u2019s already shown he may find a way to keep his contact rate up and become a 30\/30 guy with a .350 OBP.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 18 | 6-2 | 210 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Ineligible<\/p>\n Collier was the No. 2 player on my draft board this year, as the 17-year-old graduated from high school two years early and played the spring at two-year Chipola College, outhitting most of his older teammates while facing pitchers two to four years older than he was. The Reds got him at the 18th pick, paying him an over-slot $5 million bonus, and naturally I think they got a steal. The son of former Pirates outfielder Lou Collier, Cam projects to hit for average and for power thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing and exceptional bat speed. He\u2019s short to the ball, with loose hands and plenty of wrist and hand strength to drive the ball to all fields. He has plus raw power now but doesn\u2019t always get to it in games because he can drift forward over his front side, which fortunately isn\u2019t that difficult to fix. He\u2019s a former shortstop with a plus arm and should be no worse than an average defender at third, although some scouts voiced concerns in the spring that he\u2019d end up too big for the position. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s likely, and he\u2019s athletic enough to stay on the dirt. The bat is the carrying tool; with some modest adjustments, he should hit for high averages and power, and the fact that he\u2019ll play all of next year at 18 also gives him more time to develop than anyone else on this list.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 5-7 | 175 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Ineligible<\/p>\n Johnson was the best pure hitter in the high school ranks in the 2022 draft class, although he had some competition from players like Holliday. Johnson, who went fourth to the Pirates, played against awful competition for his Atlanta high school, often dealing with pitchers who\u2019d pitch around him, but hit when he got the chance while also working like an extra coach, encouraging teammates, giving them tips at the plate while he was on base, and more. It\u2019s one thing to talk about a player having great makeup, but you could see Johnson\u2019s great makeup in tangible ways. He has a small hitch in his swing, but has exceptional hand-eye coordination and great bat speed to overcome it, and in a small sample in pro ball he showed he could hit good velocity and deal with better pitch shapes than he\u2019d ever seen in his life. He has great hands to stay on the dirt, but he\u2019s not a shortstop, and his footwork there makes me think he\u2019ll end up at second base. He\u2019s still growing, and might end up a little bit taller \u2014 he\u2019s already a baller \u2014 and a lot stronger, with 20 homers within reach given his hit tool. With the way he carries himself on the field, I\u2019m happy to bet on him reaching his ceiling.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Ineligible<\/p>\n Holliday is the son of longtime outfielder Matt Holliday, and entered the spring of 2022 as someone who might go in the back of the first round. He worked hard that offseason on gaining strength and adjusting his swing to drive the ball more, and after a big showing on his school\u2019s trip to Arizona over spring break \u2014 it never hurts to travel where half the GMs in baseball are hanging out \u2014 he vaulted up into the top echelon of prospects, eventually going first to the Orioles. Holliday has a pretty left-handed swing that produces hard line-drive contact, and he\u2019s shown advanced feel for the strike zone at a young age. It\u2019s a tiny sample, but he walked more than he struck out in his pro debut \u2014 10 walks to two whiffs in the complex league, then 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in Low A, even though he was still 18 and just three months out of high school. He has more doubles\/gap power now, but as he fills out he\u2019s going to put more balls over the fence, probably becoming a 20-25 homer guy at his peak. He\u2019s a plus runner who shows plenty of range at shortstop with enough arm for the left side of the infield, but if he outgrows short or ends up lacking the footwork for it, he could move to center field. I caught Holliday at the end of 2022 when the Orioles promoted him to Low-A Delmarva, and the worst thing I can say about him is that he tried to do too much \u2014 I\u2019m sure he\u2019s so used to being the best player on the field that he tried to make plays when he should have deferred to other fielders. That\u2019s barely a flaw, just a testament to how good he is at such a young age. I can see why the O\u2019s wanted him with the first pick, and I won\u2019t be surprised at all if we see him in High-A Aberdeen by the middle of this year.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-3 | 195 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Merrill was the Padres\u2019 first-rounder in 2021 out of a Maryland high school, then spent the following offseason working on strength and conditioning, returning a completely different hitter. He\u2019s got an advanced approach at the plate, including a real-life two-strike approach \u2014 I thought those were extinct! He also stays back on the ball well, producing gap power now that should end up as double-digit home run power when he fills out. He\u2019s a plus runner with above-average range at shortstop, moving better to his right, and has a 55 arm, so while there was talk of him moving off the position when he was an amateur, I think he stays there long-term. Merrill fractured his wrist on a freak play in April, missing almost three months with the injury, but actually hit better after his return, and then held his own despite being one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. Merrill\u2019s ultimate ceiling probably comes down to how good the hit tool is. Right now it looks like he\u2019ll have a future 60, if not better, hit tool, which would give him a chance to be an impact bat even with 8-12 homers a year. If not, though, I see a high floor here, where he\u2019s got a very good chance to at least be a solid regular at short who plays 55 defense and gets on base at an above-average clip.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-2 | 178 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 15<\/p>\n Luciano\u2019s 2022 season in High A was a disappointment, as a lower back strain cost him about half of the year, and when he came back in mid-August he wasn\u2019t the same hitter. He was off to a good start before the injury, hitting .288\/.360\/.507 before he hit the injured list, so there\u2019s reason to remain optimistic about his long-term upside, where he projects to a plus hit tool with plus power if it all comes together. He even showed a solid approach and continued to keep his contact rate up, even after the injury. Luciano is a physical kid, listed at 6-2 and a laughable 178 pounds, even though he\u2019s a lot bigger and stronger than that now, and he hits the ball extremely hard when he squares it up, giving him that elite offensive upside where he could hit .300 and still get to 30 homers. He\u2019s still playing shortstop but that\u2019s always been unlikely, and I think it\u2019s becoming even less so as he moves up the ladder; he should move to third base or first, but there\u2019s a decent chance he\u2019s a corner outfielder. The bat will still play there, or anywhere, although the positional question creates a wide range in his expected outcomes. At third, he might be a top 5-10 player in baseball. In the outfield, he might just be a star.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 5-10 | 170 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 22<\/p>\n Rocchio got off to a slow start in Double A last year, although he was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League at age 21, but improved as the season went on, hitting .316\/.383\/.539 in his last 50 games (of 99) before he was promoted to Triple A for the last five weeks of the season. He\u2019s a smaller guy but makes hard contact, hitting 15 homers in 2021 and 18 last year, although he puts the ball on the ground a little too often for this type of hitter. He\u2019s always had a compact, direct swing, and over the past few years he\u2019s learned to stay back on the ball, with great balance through contact. He hits well from both sides but his swing is slightly better right-handed. He\u2019s an above-average defender at shortstop with good hands and 55 speed, although once again, he was bad at the whole basestealing thing, going 14-for-23 (61 percent) to bring his career success rate down to 64 percent. I guess it\u2019s a good thing he can field, hit, and hit for power. He could stand to walk a little more, although some of his impatience may stem from him always being young for his levels, and he needs to continue to put the ball in the air. I still see All-Star upside here, a shortstop who saves a few runs a year with his glove and adds a ton more with .280-.300 averages, adequate walk rates, and 15-20 homers a year.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-3 | 205 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 62<\/p>\n Vargas was arguably the best hitter in the PCL last year, and certainly the best one under the age of 26, hitting .304\/.404\/.511 with just a 14.6 percent strikeout rate for Oklahoma City while playing four different positions, putting him in line to be the Dodgers\u2019 second baseman this year if Gavin Lux slides over to short. Vargas has always been able to hit, but his body has improved substantially since he first broke out in 2019, when scouts questioned whether he\u2019d get too heavy or slow-footed for third base; now he\u2019s a plus runner underway and there\u2019s no doubt he could stay at third or handle second. We didn\u2019t see his best bolts in the majors but he\u2019s topped 110 mph off the bat in the minors and hits a ton of line drives, with a swing that might make him more of a 40 doubles\/20 homers guy than a 30 homer guy, although either way he\u2019s likely to post OBPs in the upper .300s. I think he\u2019ll be the former, a high-OBP hitter who smashes a ton of doubles, maybe getting to 50 or so in his peak years, with solid-average defense at second or third, but maybe has years where he hits \u201conly\u201d 15-18 homers and is quietly excellent instead.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 6-2 | 171 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 94<\/p>\n Mead was off to a great start in 2022 when his elbow started to bark, limiting him to just four games after July 23, although he did not have surgery on the joint. The Australian infielder, acquired from the Phillies for Cristopher S\u00e1nchez, hit .305\/.394\/.548 as a 21-year-old in his first go-round in Double A, then hit .278\/.377\/.486 in 20 games in Triple A before the injury shut him down. His best position is in the batter\u2019s box, where he\u2019s a high-contact doubles machine who hammers fastballs but can do damage against offspeed too. He\u2019s extremely strong, driving the ball to all fields, even with a swing that always keeps his hands well out from his body. It\u2019s a simple swing with big hand acceleration and a short but firm stride that gets him some additional power from his legs. He\u2019s playable at third base and has dabbled at second, although he\u2019ll likely just be a 45 defender at any skill position. His bat is his ticket, though; he should hit for average, and might be a 35-40 doubles guy in his first few years, while he could find another half-grade of power and convert some of those to homers in his peak.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-4 | 205 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Montgomery was a risky pick in the first round in 2021 \u2014 he was 19 at the draft and came from a high school in rural Indiana where he didn\u2019t face much good pitching. He\u2019s panned out so far, reaching Double A last year after very strong performances as a 20-year-old in Low A and High A where he showed advanced plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Before fading in August as he got tired, he was hitting .309\/.420\/.462 between the two levels, and then struggled after the White Sox promoted him, along all of their key prospects, to Double A to finish the year. He\u2019s 6-4 with long limbs, and his swing can get long when he\u2019s going for pitches on the outer edge or beyond, but he\u2019s disciplined enough that he hasn\u2019t chased much at the lower levels. The consensus among scouts is that he\u2019ll move off shortstop, and he may very well outgrow it, but he gets very good reads and comes in well on balls, with plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. With his strong hit\/OBP skills, Montgomery\u2019s ceiling comes down to power; right now it\u2019s below-average, but as he fills out he should get at least to average, which would make him a solid regular at third or an above-average regular at short.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-0 | 184 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Crow-Armstrong underwent shoulder surgery after just six pro games in 2021, his debut season after the Mets took him in the first round in the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft, and then found himself heading to Chicago as the return for Javier B\u00e1ez at the 2021 deadline. Coming out of high school, he was a premium defensive center fielder with good feel to hit but not much potential for power, but he\u2019s adjusted his swing and transformed his body so that he\u2019s a double-digit homer guy who will put enough balls in the gaps to make him a potential star. He\u2019s still a plus-plus defender in center and shows exceptional bat-to-ball skills, with just an 18 percent strikeout rate in Low A to start last year, and projects as a throwback sort of hitter who doesn\u2019t walk or strike out a ton. He\u2019s a plus runner who has exploited bad minor-league defenses to gain extra bases, helping him hit 10 triples in 101 games, tied for fourth in the minors. Crow-Armstrong will need to tighten up his approach to stay a 10-15 homer guy going forward, as his aggressiveness won\u2019t let him get to pitches he can drive as he moves up the ladder, but he has that sort of power in him. Combined with his ability to hit for average and premium defense at a position up the middle, he has a very high floor that should let him be a regular for a long time, with the chance to make some All-Star teams if he gets to his power upside.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 6-0 | 195 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 29<\/p>\n Valera and Rocchio have been on nearly parallel tracks the last two years, moving up from High A to Double A and then Double A to Triple A within two weeks of each other. Rocchio is the safer bet with the higher floor, but Valera offers more upside, especially with the bat, where he could be a high-OBP, 30-homer guy if he can keep his contact rate intact. Valera works the count extremely well, rarely chasing fastballs out of the zone, and is comfortable hitting with two strikes, only expanding slightly in those counts. He has very easy power to pull and the other way, with 30 homers a realistic projection for him, especially as he continues to learn which pitches to take and which to attack. After barely facing southpaws in 2021, he showed only a small platoon split in 2022, hitting better against right-handers but making almost as much contact against lefties. He\u2019s a \u201cflashy\u201d player, but I say that as a compliment, as I think the game needs more guys who play with flair and energy. With average defense in right, he could be a huge impact bat who has OBPs near .400 with the aforementioned power, as long as he can hold or reduce his strikeout rate (25.6 percent last year) as he moves up the ladder.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 24 | 6-5 | 220 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking:<\/b> 50<\/p>\n For pure stuff, Miller has few peers, if any, among minor-league starter prospects. He can sit 96-100 mph and has touched 102 in shorter outings, working with a four-pitch mix where everything is above-average. His changeup has unusual power to it \u2014 it shouldn\u2019t be that surprising, if Miller were to throw in the towel, he\u2019d do it harder than anyone else \u2014 but also is very deceptive out of his hand, generating swings and misses about half the time he throws it. His slider is 85-91 with sharp downward break, and he\u2019s got a power breaking ball \u2014 again, he has power stuff, in case you didn\u2019t catch that earlier \u2014 that\u2019s pretty close to 12-6, and I\u2019d probably put it a half-grade over the slider if I didn\u2019t know that the slider was slightly more effective at getting whiffs and chases this year. The one flaw in Miller\u2019s game is that he\u2019s worse with runners on base, in results but also in stuff, losing about a half a mile an hour on his pitches and missing fewer bats when he\u2019s working from the stretch. With the bases empty, hitters hit .188\/.263\/.259 off Miller, but with men on base they hit .278\/.335\/.451, including eight of the 12 homers Miller allowed on the season. It\u2019s enough that Miller is going to have to make an adjustment at some point to reach his ceiling. It\u2019s No. 1 starter stuff, with close to average command. If he can hold it better when he works from the stretch, he\u2019ll be a top-10 pitcher in baseball.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-6 | 188 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Alc\u00e1ntara was the main part of the return for Anthony Rizzo when the Cubs traded the fan favorite to the Bronx in 2021, and since then he\u2019s emerged as one of the highest-upside prospects in the minors. Alc\u00e1ntara debuted in the GCL at age 16 back in 2019, when he was gangly and uncoordinated but also oozed projection. After the pandemic, he came back a different guy, adding probably 20 pounds of muscle and gaining coordination, hitting .345\/.423\/.588 in 34 games in the two complex leagues. In 2022, he moved to full-season ball at 19, hitting .273\/.360\/.451 for Myrtle Beach, historically a bad place for power hitters, finishing eighth in the Carolina League in slugging and 16th in OBP. (He hit .306\/.368\/.508 on the road, which would have led the league in slugging and put him 10th in OBP.) Alc\u00e1ntara has loose hands and a great swing with a strong first move toward the ball, after which he lets his legs do some of the work. He already recognizes spin well for his age and drives the ball to the opposite field, while he\u2019s a plus runner who could stay in center even though he\u2019s likely to add another 20-25 pounds of muscle. He carries some risk, as he\u2019s 6-6 and has long levers, striking out 24.8 percent of the time last year. If he can hold that down, though, he could be a top-5 prospect in baseball in a year or two, a potential superstar with plus-plus power and speed in a solid or better center fielder.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-2 | 210 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 20<\/p>\n Davis had a really rough go in his first full pro season, as he played in just 59 regular-season games around two IL stints due to a wrist injury. He was hit by a pitch 20 times in those 59 games, and then seven more times in 17 Arizona Fall League games, with one of those HBPs causing a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist that he tried to play through, returned after a one-month trip to the injured list, then went back to the IL in early July and missed more than seven more weeks due to soreness in the same wrist. He still hit .264\/.380\/.472 during the regular season and .260\/.435\/.440 in the AFL, losing some power after all the wrist trouble and seeing an OBP boost because he thinks he\u2019s Don Baylor at the plate. Davis is a very athletic catcher with a plus-plus arm and plus power, already showing the ability to hit even high-end velocity. He doesn\u2019t have the same results against offspeed stuff \u2014 with lower contact quality he\u2019ll need to improve. He\u2019s an extremely hard worker, bringing that reputation from his time at Louisville, and has already made progress as a receiver, but you can still find many scouts who think he can\u2019t catch and\/or want to move him to another position, such as third base or right field. I\u2019m in the camp that thinks he\u2019ll stick behind the plate, and that his on-base and power skills will make him an occasional All-Star \u2014 but he has to stay healthy and get a lot more reps to get to that point, too.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-3 | 210 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 41<\/p>\n Baty was nearly out of a job a few weeks ago, so I imagine he was the one person in the Mets organization happy when the Carlos Correa signing fell through. Baty is a strong hitter, topping out at 113 mph in his major-league stint last year and averaging over 91 mph on 30 batted balls (so yes, small sample size caveats apply). He returned to Double A to start 2022 after spending 40 games there to finish the prior year, and demolished the level, hitting .312\/.406\/.544 and cutting his ground-ball rate from 61 percent there in 2021 to 42.6 percent last year. He did backslide a little in the majors, so there\u2019s some swing maintenance for the Mets to do so he stays rotational enough to get the ball in the air. Baty is big for third baseman but a solid athlete who\u2019s worked hard on his defense, which is more than just playable there, but I don\u2019t know if he\u2019d be as good in an outfield corner, so staying at third is by far his best chance to be an above-average regular. The Mets should just give him 500 at bats this year, as there\u2019s nothing left for him to learn in the minors, and he\u2019s by far their best option there. He has the raw power for 30 homers, but I think he\u2019ll be more 40 doubles\/20 homers with OBPs well above .350.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 5-10 | 190 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 78<\/p>\n Is there a bigger example of a \u201cpost-hype prospect\u201d than Dom\u00ednguez? Touted as the next Mickey Mantle as the Yankees gave him their entire international bonus pool when he was 16, he didn\u2019t get to play in a minor-league game until he turned 18 because of the pandemic. He hit a very credible .258\/.346\/.398 in full-season ball, for Low-A Tampa, in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2021, as one of only three 18-year-olds to get at least 200 plate appearances in the league (along with Alex Ram\u00edrez, also on this list). He returned to Tampa this year as a 19-year-old, still young for the level, improved to .265\/.373\/.440, moved up to High-A Hudson Valley, hit .306\/.397\/.510 there, and finished with a week in Double-A Somerset. I\u2019ll recap: He started 2022 with 57 games of pro experience, total, and that\u2019s all he had had since signing in July of 2019. He ended up hitting well enough in High A that he would have finished in the top 10 in the Sally League in OBP and slugging if he\u2019d qualified. Why do I get the sense people think he\u2019s a disappointment? And it\u2019s not like he lacks tools \u2014 he has electric bat speed, 70 raw power, 70 run, probably 70 defend in center. He does have work to do as a hitter, and during that one week in Double A you could see he needs to learn to adjust to pitchers who can change speeds on him and locate their secondary stuff more than anything he\u2019s seen before. The body is maxed out, but there\u2019s also no need for him to get stronger or develop more power. I see a guy with three plus-plus tools who is the age of a college sophomore and has earned his way to Double A. What\u2019s not to like?<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 6-2 | 225 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 51<\/p>\n Espino looked incredible in spring training and in April, when he made four starts for Akron and punched out 35 of the 68 hitters he faced \u2014 not literally, that would be battery \u2014 for a strikeout rate of 51.4 percent. Then he suffered patellar tendinitis in his knee, going on the injured list in May \u2026 and never returned, as his shoulder came up sore while he was trying to return from the knee injury in late June and early July. When healthy, he shows a four-seamer in the mid- to upper-90s, touching 100, that he works with up in the zone, and then works down with a plus slider with fierce vertical break. He has a curveball that he\u2019s largely dismissed in favor of the slider, and a changeup that\u2019s still a work in progress but was mostly solid-average in late 2021. He also came out throwing strikes in 2022, which was the main area left for him to improve after his incredible season the year before. Now it\u2019s down to health; he\u2019s supposed to be ready for spring training, and if we had a crystal ball that said he was going to hold up all year, he\u2019d be the Guardians\u2019 top pitching prospect \u2014 which is really saying something.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-0 | 170 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n The Mets traded Rodriguez to Pittsburgh to get Joey Lucchesi as part of the three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego; Lucchesi threw 38 innings for the Mets in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, while Rodriguez has become one of the best catching prospects in baseball. Rodriguez can really hit, and he\u2019s shown he can play multiple positions, including catcher. Early in the season, he was splitting time with Henry Davis, but after Rodriguez became a full-time catcher on July 2, his bat really took off: he hit .379\/.461\/.731 the rest of the way, despite two promotions in that span that landed him in Triple A to end the year. It\u2019s not elite bat speed or exit velocity, but the ball carries well off his bat, even more so after he reduced his leg kick and initial hand movement partway through the season. He\u2019s improved substantially behind the plate with experience, blocking better, receiving more smoothly, backpicking runners, and nailing 45 percent of would-be basestealers while he was in Double A. He\u2019s also excellent at first base, showed this year he could play second base in a pinch and has some experience in the outfield, where he\u2019s average in a corner. He might not be a star, but I\u2019m not ruling it out, and he seems very, very likely to be an average regular, whether it\u2019s as someone\u2019s full-time catcher or a sort of unicorn who catches and also plays several other positions.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 19 | 6-3 | 225 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Ineligible<\/p>\n Green was the fifth pick in the 2022 draft out of IMG Academy, which also produced fellow Nats farmhand James Wood (further up this list). Green and Wood are both very toolsy, athletic outfielders with unusual strength and size for their ages, although Green isn\u2019t as tall as Wood and has more of a football body \u2014 unsurprising, since his dad, Eric Green, was a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers and played 10 years in the NFL. Elijah has plus power already that projects to grade 70, with tremendous hand acceleration and loud contact when he gets his arms extended. As a result, his power comes on pitches middle and away, while he shows lower-impact contact on pitches on the inner third. He does have some swing and miss even in the zone on fastballs in the upper half and he\u2019ll chase breaking stuff down and away. He\u2019s a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a very strong arm, and might have gotten more attention for his range and reads if he hadn\u2019t had the misfortune to be in the same draft class as the son of Andruw Jones. There\u2019s risk here in the bat, but it\u2019s an unusual power\/speed combo in a center fielder \u2026 so unusual that the Nats have two prospects who fit that description.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 24 | 6-2 | 205 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Bibee is yet another command right-hander taken by Cleveland from a California college whose last name starts with B who has entered their system and seen his velocity jump from fringy to plus. The other guy was a fourth rounder, and Bibee was a fifth rounder, so the symmetry isn\u2019t quite perfect, but work with me here. Bibee saw his velocity increase across most of the season, to the point where he hit 99 mph a few times in July and August, and was still sitting 93-97 when I saw him at the start of September. His fastball has some ride to it, but it\u2019s probably his third-best pitch. He has a wipeout changeup at 82-84 with late, biting fade to it, and it\u2019s so effective that hitters whiff on it more than half of the time they swing. (Maybe they should stop swinging?) He also has an above-average slider in the mid-80s, up to 88, with solid tilt, that he uses almost exclusively to right-handers, and a show-me curveball that looks pretty but that he probably shouldn\u2019t use more than a few times a game. Even with the big jump in velo, he\u2019s still a strike-thrower, with a walk rate of just 5.2 percent, thanks to a repeatable delivery that keeps him online to the plate, with added deception from his high three-quarters slot. He looks like a potential No. 2 starter, especially if he goes heavy changeup\/slider and doesn\u2019t rely too much on the fastball.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 22 | 5-8 | 152 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Rafaela is one of the smallest players on this ranking, listed at 5-8, 152 pounds, and that\u2019s not that far off from reality, but he was the big breakout guy in Boston\u2019s system this year after he started driving the ball a lot more often and emerged as a potential 70 or 80 defender in center. Rafaela, who was born in Cura\u00e7ao, swings first and asks questions later, with a very fast bat and excellent bat control that helps him make contact even on pitches out of the zone, although it also leads to a lot of weaker contact on those same pitches. He doesn\u2019t miss fastballs and actually hangs in there (pun intended) well on curveballs, but given how high he starts his hands, he doesn\u2019t always have time to adjust on other pitches, and he\u2019s going to have to start to pick them up sooner out of pitchers\u2019 hands. His defense is elite and he\u2019s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn\u2019t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he\u2019s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 24 | 6-4 | 220 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 87<\/p>\n Pfaadt was the Diamondbacks\u2019 last pick in the five-round 2020 draft, 12 picks from the end of the round, and signed for well under slot as a junior out of Division II Bellarmine. He has since become their best pitching prospect after two years of striking out everyone in sight, including a minor-league-leading 218 punchouts last year. Pfaadt does a lot of it just with his fastball, touching 97-98 mph and sitting 92-94, filling up the strike zone with a four-pitch mix, using the slider as his primary out pitch against right-handers and both changeup and slider to lefties, with nearly 70 percent of his pitches going for strikes last year. He\u2019s built like a workhorse starter, 6-4 and listed at 220 pounds, with a good delivery he repeats very well. As is, he\u2019s at least a mid-rotation starter, but there could still be some further upside if either of those two main offspeed pitches improves.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Stone was the Dodgers\u2019 fifth-round pick in 2020, a money-saver out of Central Arkansas who had only just become a full-time starter for the Bears that spring. (His bonus of $97,500 was the fourth-lowest in the entire fifth round, and one of the dozen lowest in the whole draft.) He\u2019s since emerged as the Dodgers\u2019 second-best pitching prospect and isn\u2019t that far behind their top guy, Bobby Miller, who was their first-rounder in the same year. Stone is a very athletic right-hander who works at 94-96 mph with a plus-plus changeup that hitters can\u2019t touch \u2014 the whiff rate on the pitch was over 50 percent last year and it\u2019s effective against left- and right-handed hitters, a major reason why he had as close to zero platoon split. His slider is solid-average, mid-80s with short, downward break, good enough to get right-handers to swing and miss but not a pitch he\u2019ll use much against lefties. Stone pitched at three levels last year, from High A to Triple A, and his highest ERA at any of those stops was 1.60; he finished the year with 168 strikeouts in 121 2\/3 innings (33.8 percent of batters faced) and a hilarious 1.48 ERA. His command and control are the only things keeping him from a major-league rotation right now, as they\u2019re no better than grade 45, but he\u2019s also not that far away, and he repeats his delivery well enough that I expect him to get to average or better soon and end up at least a No. 3 starter.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-4 | 252 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 56<\/p>\n Casas is a boring prospect, but not in a bad way; he projects as an above-average or better regular at first base and he\u2019s ready to take over in Fenway right now, but he doesn\u2019t have a huge tool, no 80 power or elite defense and definitely not big speed. He\u2019s patient, disciplined, and has very good feel to hit, with hard contact that so far has produced a ton of doubles although there\u2019s no real reason to think he can\u2019t put more of those balls over the fence. Casas is big and very strong; his swing makes excellent use of his upper and lower half as he rotates his hips to get more power from his legs. Boston tried him at third base but let\u2019s just pretend that never happened. He\u2019s a first baseman who rakes, and should be the traditional slugger for that position, hitting for some average with a ton of walks and either 40-odd doubles or 25-plus homers.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 5-10 | 180 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 88<\/p>\n Frelick was the Brewers\u2019 first-round pick in 2021, a surprise selection given the top-10 buzz he\u2019d had all spring, although the lack of home run power and his smaller size may have steered some teams away from him. He went out right away that summer and played 35 games, finishing in High A, which set him up well for 2022, where he was in Double A in less than a month and ended the year banging on the doors of Miller Park, hitting .365\/.435\/.508 in 46 games for Triple-A Nashville. Frelick is a plus defender in center and plus-plus runner who hits the ball harder than you\u2019d expect for a 5-10 guy of medium build, although I think Alex Bregman should probably have made us all get over any biases on that front. He puts the ball on the ground quite a bit, which isn\u2019t the worst thing when you can run like he does, but he could be a high doubles\/triples guy if he can swap out some groundballs for more hits in the air. His short swing has always made him tough to strike out, and he punched out just 11 percent of the time last year, dropping below 10 percent in that stint with Nashville, where he hit like the next line drive was going to carry him all the way to Milwaukee. There\u2019s a lower ceiling on a player like Frelick even with the performance, between his lack of power and the batted-ball profile, but he will be an everyday center fielder for a long time, and even if he\u2019s \u201cjust\u201d an average regular, that\u2019s a very valuable guy.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 23 | 6-6 | 255 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Unranked<\/p>\n Williams fell to the 23rd pick in the 2021 draft despite having clear top-10 stuff and results because some teams were concerned about the health of his back at the time. Cleveland has a history of taking pitchers with medical concerns in the first round, hitting on some (Danny Espino) and whiffing on others (Brady Aiken, Ethan Hankins). Williams might be another hit, as his elite fastball helped him tear through High A and Double A in his full-season debut last year, with strikeout rates of 40 percent and 29 percent at the two levels and an ERA on the season of just 1.96. His fastball is up to 98 mph and he\u2019ll sit 95 with big-time vertical break, while his power slider is an above-average pitch at 86-89 and he\u2019ll show an average curveball with good shape and tight spin. His changeup is a below-average pitch, lacking much deception or action, even though he has a good idea of when and how to use it. Lefties hit for 100 more points of OBP and 200 more points of slugging against him last year, yet he still struck a third of them out on the season, so there\u2019s reason to think he can close that platoon split at least part of the way. The fastball\/slider and his above-average control point to a No. 2 starter ceiling if he does.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-2 | 195 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> 24<\/p>\n Hassell was part of the return for Juan Soto, which included three prospects from last year\u2019s top 100 (Hassell, C.J. Abrams, and Mackenzie Gore) and two on this year\u2019s (Hassell again, and James Wood). Hassell was the outlier out of the five \u2014 right-hander Jarlin Susana, who can hit 102 mph as a starter, was the fifth \u2014 in that he\u2019s a high-floor, lower-ceiling guy, without superstar upside but with a very good chance to be a solid regular for a long time. Hassell, who was the Padres\u2019 first-round pick in the 2020 draft, is a hitter first who might come into average power down the road, working with a short swing and excellent hand acceleration. He lets the ball travel on him so he has more time to recognize pitches, and if he gains some strength he could be a 30-doubles, 15-homers guy, although contact and getting on base will always be his predominant skills as a hitter. He\u2019s an above-average runner who\u2019s been a high-percentage base stealer in his two years in the minors (87 percent) and plays 55 defense in center. He reached Double A after the trade at age 20, and there\u2019s physical development still ahead of him. If he makes somewhat harder contact as he gets stronger, he\u2019ll be a solid regular thanks to high averages and his secondary skills on the bases and in center. I\u2019m not sure there\u2019s a real path for him to be a star, though, given his frame and the quality of the contact he\u2019s making now.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 6-1 | 197 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>: <\/b>Ineligible<\/p>\n Parada was one of the best college hitters in the 2022 draft class, hitting .361\/.453\/.709 for Georgia Tech and striking out in just 10.4 percent of his plate appearances, and he continued to get on base in his 13 games in pro ball after signing. He\u2019s a bat-first catcher who has an unusual setup at the plate, holding the bat over his back shoulder like it\u2019s a golf bag, but he gets the bat head to the zone on time, even against better stuff. I wouldn\u2019t rule out someone trying to change that eventually, but for now, it works for him. He made a lot of hard, loud contact, including 26 homers, tying him for sixth among all Division I players even though he faced good quality pitching in the ACC. Behind the plate he\u2019s a bit rough, with some scouts questioning whether he\u2019d stay at the position. He has a 55 arm and he\u2019s fine blocking, but has trouble framing and some issues receiving better stuff. He\u2019s a sneaky good athlete who has already improved substantially on defense since high school, and doesn\u2019t have that much farther to go to be average-ish with the glove. His bat is the carrying tool, with high contact rates and the potential for 20-25 homers a year.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 5-10 | 165 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>:<\/b> Sleeper<\/p>\n Quero was snakebit in 2021, suffering a concussion, a hamstring injury, and a dislocated shoulder, enough that he might as well have been one of those Unlucky Andersons. I guess he put some butter on it, since he played 95 games in 2022 plus a stint in the AFL at just 19 years old, hitting .286\/.342\/.439 between Low A and High A with just a 19 percent strikeout rate. He\u2019s an above-average to plus defender with an easy plus arm, throwing out 30 percent of runners during the regular season and 46 percent in the AFL, so the bar for him to clear to just project as a backup is pretty low. He has a short, slashing swing that produces a lot of contact, with some sneaky pop, hitting 10 homers in 2022, and he might get to 45 power at his peak. He\u2019s at the smaller end of the range for catchers, and the 80 games he caught last year (including the fall) were obviously his career high, so durability is the main variable when considering his future. I see a high floor here, with a good chance for an above-average regular who hits for average with some doubles power and even steals a few bags.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 21 | 5-11 | 180 pounds Last year\u2019s ranking<\/b>: <\/b>Unranked<\/p>\n Winn has the best shortstop arm in the minors, probably the best infield arm in the minors, and one of the best arms attached to any human being, anywhere; he uncorked a throw in the Futures Game that was the hardest ever recorded by Statcast from an infielder at 100.5 mph. He also has electric bat speed, the kind where you worry it might be in and out of the zone too quickly. He\u2019s killed fastballs so far and has a very good feel for the strike zone; he has the most trouble right now with pitchers changing speeds on him. He\u2019s a plus runner who has stolen 75 bags in two years with an 88 percent success rate, more tangible evidence of how good his instincts and feel for the game are. Even as is, he should be a plus defender who hits for average and slaps the ball around the field, but with his bat speed, he might surprise with his power when he fills out. You can really dream on Winn\u2019s tools and see a better ceiling than even teammate Jordan Walker, especially since Winn plays up the middle, but with more volatility in his potential outcomes.<\/p>\n Age:<\/strong> 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 42 in 2019<\/p>\n3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
International signing in 2021<\/p>\n4. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Switch | Throws:<\/strong> Right
International signing in 2018<\/p>\n5. Jordan Walker, OF\/3B, St. Louis Cardinals<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 21 in 2020<\/p>\n6. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
International signing in 2018<\/p>\n7. Francisco \u00c1lvarez, C, New York Mets<\/h2>\n
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International signing in 2018<\/p>\n8. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 30 in 2019<\/p>\n9. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 6 in 2021<\/p>\n10. Eury P\u00e9rez, RHP, Miami Marlins<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
International signing in 2019<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2022\/01\/31230049\/GettyImages-1234133084-scaled-e1643688913693.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Boston\u2019s Marcelo Mayer practicing at Fenway Park in 2021. (John Tlumacki \/ The Boston Globe via Getty Images)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n11. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 4 in 2021<\/p>\n12. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Left
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 85 in 2020<\/p>\n13. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 13 in 2021<\/p>\n14. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 2 in 2022<\/p>\n15. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 11 in 2018<\/p>\n16. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 62 in 2021<\/p>\n17. Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 18 in 2022<\/p>\n18. Termarr Johnson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h2>\n
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Drafted: No. 4 in 2022<\/p>\n19. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 1 in 2022<\/p>\n20. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 27 in 2021<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2022\/01\/31165146\/GettyImages-1236983883.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n The Giants\u2019 Marco Luciano played for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the 2021 AFL. (Chris Bernacchi \/ Diamond Images via Getty Images)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n21. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2018<\/p>\n22. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Switch | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2017<\/p>\n23. Miguel Vargas, 3B\/2B\/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
International signing in 2017<\/p>\n24. Curtis Mead, 3B\/2B, Tampa Bay Rays<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2018<\/p>\n25. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 22 in 2021<\/p>\n26. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Left
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 19 in 2020<\/p>\n27. George Valera, OF, Cleveland Guardians<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Left
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2017<\/p>\n28. Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 29 in 2020<\/p>\n29. Kevin Alc\u00e1ntara, OF, Chicago Cubs<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2018<\/p>\n30. Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 1 in 2021<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/28141017\/USATSI_18945392-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Brett Baty appeared in 11 games for the Mets last season. (Gregory Fisher \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n31. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 12 in 2019<\/p>\n32. Jasson Dom\u00ednguez, OF, New York Yankees<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Switch\u00a0 | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2019<\/p>\n33. Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 24 in 2019<\/p>\n34. Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Switch | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2018<\/p>\n35. Elijah Green, OF, Washington Nationals<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 5 in 2022<\/p>\n36. Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 156 in 2021<\/p>\n37. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF\/SS, Boston Red Sox<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2017<\/p>\n38. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 149 in 2020<\/p>\n39. Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 159 in 2020<\/p>\n40. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox<\/h2>\n
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Drafted:<\/strong> No. 26 in 2018<\/p>\n41. Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 15 in 2021<\/p>\n42. Gavin Williams, RHP, Cleveland Guardians<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 23 in 2021<\/p>\n43. Robert Hassell, OF, Washington Nationals<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left | Throws:<\/strong> Left
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 8 in 2020<\/p>\n44. Kevin Parada, C, New York Mets<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 11 in 2022<\/p>\n45. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> International signing in 2019<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/01\/28141447\/GettyImages-1245439155-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n The Cardinals\u2019 Masyn Winn bats in the AFL Fall Stars Game last November. (Chris Bernacchi \/ Diamond Images via Getty Images)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n46. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Right | Throws:<\/strong> Right
Drafted:<\/strong> No. 54 in 2020<\/p>\n47. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays<\/h2>\n
Bats:<\/strong> Left |