World Series Thrills: Can the Yankees Extend the Series Against the Dodgers?

As the tension mounts in the 2024 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the New York Yankees in a pivotal Game 5 showdown. With the Dodgers leading the series 3-1, the Yankees are determined to claw back and keep their championship hopes alive. Both teams are navigating a landscape of injuries, but with star pitchers Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees on the mound, fans can expect an electrifying battle. Will the Yankees capitalize on their home-field advantage, or can the Dodgers seal their victory and claim the title? Tune in for what promises to be a thrilling clash!

AI Sports Betting Models

1. BetQL: Known for its real-time analytics and historical performance data, BetQL emphasizes bets with a 55% win rate over at least 10 games. Their model suggests a strong value on the Yankees due to their recent form and home advantage.
2. ESPN: ESPN’s model often incorporates player statistics, team performance metrics, and situational factors. Their predictions lean towards the Yankees winning given their recent victory in Game 4 and home-field advantage.
3. SportsLine: This model simulates each game 10,000 times, providing detailed projections. SportsLine favors the Yankees based on their pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole, who has been performing well throughout the postseason.
4. Additional Models: Other models such as those from various betting forums and analytics sites suggest similar trends favoring the Yankees due to their recent performance and home advantage.

Average Predictions from Models

• Yankees Win Probability: Approximately 60%
• Dodgers Win Probability: Approximately 40%
• Predicted Final Score Average: Yankees 5 – Dodgers 3

My Prediction

Using the Pythagorean theorem for baseball, we can estimate runs scored based on expected win percentages:

For this matchup:

• Dodgers’ runs scored (based on season averages): 5.5
• Yankees’ runs allowed (based on season averages): 4.5

Using these figures:

• Dodgers’ expected runs = (5.5)²÷​(5.5)²+(4.5)² ≈ 3.3
• Yankees’ expected runs = (4.5)²​÷​(5.5)²+(4.5)² ≈ 4.7

Adjusting for Strength of Schedule

The Dodgers have faced tougher opponents in recent games compared to the Yankees, which may slightly lower their expected output.

Considering injuries (notably both teams missing key players), current trends, and pitching matchups:

• My Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4 – Dodgers 3

Key Player Injuries

• Dodgers: Connor Brogdon, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, River Ryan, Dustin May.
• Yankees: DJ LeMahieu, J.T. Brubaker, Carlos Rodon, Kevin Smith, Lou Trivino, Jonathan Loaisiga.

Both teams are significantly impacted by injuries; however, the Yankees have a slight edge with Gerrit Cole on the mound.

Recent Trends

The Yankees have momentum after winning Game 4 and will leverage home-field advantage to push for a comeback in this series.

Pick: Under 8 total runs. ***LOSE***