With the Losing Streak Behind Them, the Orioles Test a Vulnerable Boston Rotation on the Road

The Baltimore Orioles head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox on Thursday night, and there’s more on the line than just another game. After snapping a frustrating eight-game losing streak on Wednesday, the Orioles come in with renewed energy. Meanwhile, the Red Sox look to bounce back after striking out a season-high 16 times in their last outing. With shaky starting pitching, injury news, and both teams capable of scoring in bunches, this matchup is shaping up to be an exciting, offense-driven battle.

Let’s break down the key factors influencing this game, analyze both teams’ recent form, explore injury reports, and show how leading predictive models support the final pick and predicted score.

📍 Game Details

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox

• Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025

• Time: 6:45 PM ET

• Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA

• Moneyline: Orioles +110 | Red Sox -129

• Total Runs (O/U): 8

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Cade Povich (Orioles) – LHP

• Record: 1-3

• ERA: 5.23

• WHIP: 1.45

• SO/BB: 2.71

• Innings Pitched: 41.1

• Career vs. Red Sox: 0-2, 5.28 ERA in 3 appearances

Povich has shown occasional flashes of strikeout potential (19 Ks in 15.1 innings vs. Boston), but command and consistency remain concerns. He’s allowed multiple runs in each of his last three outings and has struggled in high-pressure innings.

Lucas Giolito (Red Sox) – RHP

• Record: 1-1

• ERA: 7.08

• WHIP: 1.52

• SO/BB: 2.83

• Innings Pitched: 20.1

• Career vs. Orioles: 3-2, 5.19 ERA

Giolito has a higher ERA this season than any point in the last five years. While his strikeout-to-walk ratio is decent, he’s giving up hard contact far too often, and right now, there’s little to suggest he’s trending in the right direction.

Recent Team Form

Baltimore Orioles

• Snapped an 8-game losing streak on Wednesday with an 8-4 extra-innings win vs. Milwaukee.

• New interim manager Tony Mansolino just picked up his first win.

• Adley Rutschman hit his 5th home run of the season, a clutch three-run shot in the 11th inning.

Despite their recent skid, Baltimore has the offensive firepower to compete in any game. They’re still scoring over 4.6 runs per game this season and have been effective in extra-base hits, even during their slump.

Boston Red Sox

• Lost to the Mets 5-1 on Wednesday.

• Struck out a season-high 16 times.

• Manager Alex Cora is limiting starters like Crochet to avoid fatigue and injury.

Boston has been inconsistent. While their bullpen has been solid at times, the offense is feast or famine. Still, they average 4.8 runs per game at home and typically bounce back after weak offensive showings.

Key Injuries to Watch

Orioles

• Jordan Westburg (Hamstring) and Colton Cowser (Thumb) are out until at least May 30.

• Kyle Bradish (Elbow) and Grayson Rodriguez (Lat) are also sidelined.

• The bullpen has been stretched thin due to extra innings and pitcher injuries.

Red Sox

• Triston Casas (Knee) is out for the season.

• Tanner Houck (Elbow) and Masataka Yoshida (Shoulder) remain unavailable.

• Several bullpen and rotation pieces like Chris Murphy and Richard Fitts are still recovering.

These absences impact bullpen depth and late-game defense, which often leads to run-scoring opportunities, especially when pitching matchups aren’t strong.

Predictive Model Insights

Here’s how five respected MLB prediction models see the score:

Average Prediction: Orioles 5.1 – Red Sox 4.8
Total Predicted Runs: 9.9

All five models agree: this game is expected to go over the total of 8 runs.

Why Over 8 Total Runs Makes Sense

1. Pitcher ERAs Are Inflated – Povich (5.23 ERA) and Giolito (7.08 ERA) both struggle to control damage. These are not pitchers who go deep into games, and their WHIPs show they allow too many baserunners.

2. Bullpen Overuse & Injuries – Both teams have multiple relievers on the injured list and recently played extra-inning games. This means a tired bullpen is likely to allow late-inning runs.

3. Fenway Park Factor – Fenway is one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB, particularly in warmer months and especially with the nor’easter moving out and humid air expected.

4. High Strikeout Offense Meets Inconsistent Pitching – While Boston struck out 16 times last game, don’t expect a repeat. Povich doesn’t have the swing-and-miss arsenal of the Mets. Both lineups should settle into early offense.

5. Weather Conditions – Rain is expected to clear by game time. Humid, post-storm air in Fenway often boosts offensive output, especially with low 90s fastballs from Giolito and shaky command from both starters.

Final Score Prediction

Baltimore Orioles: 6
Boston Red Sox: 5
Total Runs: 11

Everything points toward a high-scoring matchup, especially when you factor in:

• Poor starting pitching stats

• Bullpen issues

• Injuries to defensive contributors

• Fenway Park’s hitting conditions

• And the pressure both teams are under to perform offensively after recent losses

This Orioles vs. Red Sox matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game. From struggling starters to a tired bullpen, and from offensive talent to predictive data, the expectation is that runs will come early and often. While it’s a tight call between two unpredictable teams, the edge goes slightly to Baltimore due to their momentum and deeper offensive approach—even in the absence of a few key players.

My PICK: over 8 total runs