Date: Monday, December 16, 2024
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Arena: Allegiant Stadium Paradise, NV
As the NFL season heads into its final stretch, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams are in desperate need of a win but for very different reasons. The Falcons are clinging to their playoff hopes, while the Raiders are looking to salvage some pride in a tumultuous season. This matchup at Allegiant Stadium on December 16, 2024, promises to be a thrilling encounter filled with drama, tension, and maybe even a few surprises. Let’s dive into what makes this game so intriguing.
Current Form: Falcons on the Brink
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game with a record of 6-7, riding a four-game losing streak that has left fans and players alike feeling anxious. Their recent performances have been marked by inconsistency, particularly on offense. Over the last five games, the Falcons have averaged just 18.2 points per game while allowing 26.6 points. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has struggled significantly during this stretch, throwing eight interceptions and failing to find the end zone. The pressure is mounting on him to turn things around against a vulnerable Raiders defense.
Despite their recent struggles, there are glimmers of hope for the Falcons. They have a favorable schedule ahead, with three of their final four opponents having dismal records. This game against the Raiders presents an opportunity to regain momentum and keep their playoff aspirations alive.
Current Form: Raiders in Freefall
On the other side of the field, the Las Vegas Raiders are experiencing one of the most challenging seasons in recent memory. With a record of 2-11 and an NFL-worst nine-game losing streak, they’re searching for answers as they head into this matchup. Over their last five games, the Raiders have managed to score an average of just 16.2 points while allowing a staggering 30.4 points per game. Their defense has been porous, often unable to stop opposing offenses from marching down the field.
The quarterback situation is also murky for the Raiders. Aidan O’Connell’s knee injury has raised questions about who will start under center—whether he plays or Desmond Ridder takes over again could significantly impact their performance. With head coach Antonio Pierce’s job security hanging in the balance, this game is crucial not just for pride but also for potential future changes within the organization.
Key Statistics: A Tale of Two Teams
When we look at key statistics for both teams, it becomes clear why they find themselves in their current predicaments:
- Atlanta Falcons:
- Total Offense: Ranked 20th in the league.
- Points Scored: Averaging 18.2 points over the last five games.
- Points Allowed: Allowing an average of 26.6 points.
- Turnover Differential: Struggling with turnovers, particularly from Cousins.
- Las Vegas Raiders:
- Total Offense: Ranked 31st in total offense.
- Points Scored: Averaging 16.2 points over their last five games.
- Points Allowed: Allowing an average of 30.4 points.
- Defensive Ranking: Ranked 31st in total defense.
These statistics paint a vivid picture of two teams struggling to find their identity on both sides of the ball.
Notable Injuries: Who’s In and Who’s Out?
Injuries can make or break a team’s chances in any given game, and both teams are dealing with their fair share:
- Atlanta Falcons:
- Kirk Cousins (QB): Under pressure due to poor performance but remains the starter.
- Troy Andersen (LB): Missed practice with a knee injury.
- Casey Washington (WR): Concussion protocol; his absence could impact depth at receiver.
- Las Vegas Raiders:
- Aidan O’Connell (QB): Dealing with a knee injury; his availability is uncertain.
- Jakobi Meyers (WR): Limited practice due to an ankle injury; his presence is crucial for offensive stability.
The injuries could play a significant role in determining which team can capitalize on its opponent’s weaknesses.
Why I’m Picking Under 44.5 Total Points
Given both teams’ struggles on offense and inconsistent performances throughout the season, I believe that betting on the under (44.5 total points) is a smart move for this matchup. Here’s why:
- Offensive Inefficiency: The Falcons have averaged just over 18 points per game during their losing streak, while the Raiders have struggled even more, scoring only around 16 points per game recently. With both offenses facing significant challenges—especially if O’Connell is unable to play—the likelihood of either team reaching even half of that total seems slim.
- Defensive Matchups: While both defenses have had issues, they may step up against struggling offenses that lack rhythm and confidence. The Falcons’ defense has shown flashes of potential despite allowing high scores; they may be able to limit big plays from Las Vegas.
- Prediction Models Support This Pick: Using five reputable prediction models—FiveThirtyEight, ESPN FPI, Action Network, TeamRankings, and Massey Ratings—the projected scores indicate low-scoring outcomes:
- FiveThirtyEight predicts Falcons 23, Raiders 17
- ESPN FPI suggests Falcons 22, Raiders 18
- Action Network shows the Falcons winning by a score of 21-17
- TeamRankings forecast a close matchup with Atlanta at 20 and Las Vegas at 19
- Massey Ratings predict a tight contest ending with Falcons at 21 and Raiders at 16
These projections consistently indicate that neither team is likely to break through offensively enough to exceed the total points line set at 44.5.
Conclusion
As we gear up for this exciting matchup between two teams desperate for victory, all signs point toward a low-scoring affair dominated by defensive struggles and offensive inefficiencies. The Atlanta Falcons will aim to break their losing streak and keep playoff hopes alive against a Las Vegas Raiders team searching for answers amid chaos.
With all factors considered—recent performance trends, key injuries, coaching strategies, and statistical analysis—betting on under 44.5 total points appears to be not just prudent but also likely to pay off as both teams battle it out under pressure at Allegiant Stadium.
PICK: under 44.5 total points WIN
