Date: Sunday, June 23, 2024
Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
Arena: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, CA
As the Minnesota Twins and the Oakland Athletics prepare to wrap up their three-game series, fans are eager to see how the finale will unfold. With both teams showcasing their strengths and weaknesses in the first two games, the final match promises to be an exciting showdown. In this analysis, we’ll break down the key aspects of each team, evaluate the starting pitchers, and provide a compelling argument for why betting over 8 total runs is the best pick for this game.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have shown a resilient spirit throughout this series. After suffering a 6-5 loss in the opener, they bounced back with a commanding 10-2 victory. The Twins have a solid record against left-handed pitchers, boasting a 13-8 record, and they demonstrated this strength by scoring eight runs off Oakland’s JP Sears in just over an inning.
Key players like Manuel Margot, Byron Buxton, Willi Castro, and Jose Miranda have been instrumental in their offensive success. Margot’s home run and the doubles from Buxton, Castro, and Miranda highlighted the team’s ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Twins’ overall batting average stands at .255, a testament to their balanced and effective lineup.
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency. Despite winning the first game, their inability to contain the Twins’ offense in the second game exposed their vulnerabilities. With a team batting average of .235, the Athletics have found it challenging to generate runs consistently.
The Athletics will be looking to Hogan Harris to turn their fortunes around. Harris has shown promise with a 2.37 ERA, but his previous outing against the Twins was less than stellar, giving up five runs in four innings. Nevertheless, Harris has been solid in his recent starts, posting a 1.66 ERA over his last four outings.
Starting Pitchers
Pablo López – Minnesota Twins: Pablo López, the Twins’ right-handed pitcher, has had a mixed season so far. With a 6-6 record and a 5.63 ERA, López has struggled in June, failing to pitch beyond the sixth inning in any of his starts this month. However, he has shown potential, as evidenced by his career 1-0 record against the Athletics, with a 5.63 ERA in three starts.
Hogan Harris – Oakland Athletics: Hogan Harris, the Athletics’ left-hander, has a 1-0 record and a 2.37 ERA. Despite a rough start against the Twins last season, he has improved significantly in his recent outings. Harris has recorded a 1.66 ERA over his last four starts and secured his first win of the season against the Kansas City Royals.
Top MLB Prediction Models
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model
- Total Runs Prediction: 8.5
- TeamRankings Model
- Total Runs Prediction: 9.2
- Baseball-Reference’s Pythagorean Expectation
- Total Runs Prediction: 7.9
- FanGraphs’ Projections
- Total Runs Prediction: 8.3
- SportsLine’s Model
- Total Runs Prediction: 10
Why Betting Over 8 Total Runs is a Good Pick
- Twins’ Offensive Power: The Minnesota Twins have demonstrated their ability to score heavily, especially against left-handed pitchers. Their offensive explosion in the second game of the series, where they scored 10 runs, underscores their potential to rack up runs. With a batting average of .255 and key players in good form, the Twins are likely to continue their aggressive approach.
- Athletics’ Inconsistency: While the Athletics have shown flashes of brilliance, their inconsistency has been a significant drawback. Their team’s batting average of .235 and struggles to generate runs consistently make it challenging for them to keep up with high-scoring opponents. However, they have the capability to contribute to the total runs, especially if they capitalize on López’s recent struggles.
- Pitchers’ Vulnerabilities: Both starting pitchers have had their struggles. Pablo López has a high ERA of 5.63, indicating his vulnerability to giving up runs. Hogan Harris, although impressive recently, has had trouble against the Twins in the past. These factors suggest that both teams could exploit the weaknesses of the opposing pitchers, leading to a high-scoring game.
- Recent Trends: The Twins’ recent performances indicate a trend towards high-scoring games. Their record against left-handed pitchers and their ability to score runs in bunches make a strong case for expecting a high total in this game.
Conclusion
The Minnesota Twins and the Oakland Athletics are set to deliver an exciting finale to their series. With the Twins’ potent offense and the Athletics’ potential to surprise, this game promises plenty of action. The vulnerabilities of both starting pitchers further support the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
Considering all these factors, picking on over 8 total runs is a compelling choice. This prediction is backed by both statistical analysis and recent trends, making it a smart bet for fans and bettors alike.
Let’s look forward to an entertaining and high-scoring game!
PICK: over 8 total runs LOSE
