Will the Nationals Stop the Bleeding? Miami Goes for Sweep in D.C.

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals wrap up their three-game series on Sunday, June 15, 2025, in a matchup that could have implications for the bottom of the NL East standings. While neither team is in playoff contention at this stage of the season, both are looking to build momentum and avoid falling further behind in the division.

Series Recap & Recent Form

The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series in dramatic fashion, winning 11-9 on Friday and 4-3 on Saturday. Miami’s offense has shown flashes of explosiveness, while Washington’s pitching staff has struggled to contain key hitters late in games. The Nationals, now on a three-game skid, will look to salvage the finale behind left-hander MacKenzie Gore, while the Marlins counter with their young flame-thrower, Eury Pérez.

Key Injuries & Bullpen Concerns

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, particularly in their bullpens. The Marlins are without relievers Andrew Nardi and Ryan Weathers, which could be a major factor if Pérez doesn’t go deep into the game. Meanwhile, the Nationals are missing key arms like Andrew Chafin and Mason Thompson, leaving their late-inning options thin.

Offensively, Washington will be without Dylan Crews, one of their most promising young hitters, while Miami is missing depth pieces like Derek Hill and Griffin Conine. These absences could play a role in how each team approaches scoring opportunities.

Trends to Watch

• Recent High-Scoring Games: The first two games of this series averaged 12.5 runs, suggesting that pitching may not dominate this finale.

• Home vs. Road Splits: The Nationals are slightly better at home (17-18) compared to Miami’s 12-22 road record.

• Late-Inning Drama: Both teams have had bullpen meltdowns this season, meaning the game could swing dramatically in the final innings.

What’s at Stake?

With the Marlins (27-41) and Nationals (30-40) both sitting at the bottom of the NL East, this game is more about pride and building for the future. A series sweep for Miami could provide a morale boost, while Washington will be desperate to avoid falling further behind.

As the first pitch approaches, all eyes will be on whether the Nationals can finally solve the Marlins’ recent dominance or if Miami will complete the sweep and gain a little breathing room in the standings.

AI Model Predictions

Average Prediction:

• Washington Nationals: ~4.2 runs

• Miami Marlins: ~3.3 runs

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Marlins: 27-41 (Run Diff: -45) → Expected W% = 0.415

• Nationals: 30-40 (Run Diff: -38) → Expected W% = 0.443

Implied Strength: Slightly favors WAS (~5% edge).

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment

• Marlins’ SOS: Tougher (faced more top-10 offenses)

• Nationals’ SOS: Slightly easier (weaker pitching opponents)
  → Adjust Nationals’ offensive projection slightly down.

3. Pitching Matchup (Eury Pérez vs. MacKenzie Gore)

• Pérez (MIA): 3.50 ERA, high K-rate, but injury risk (recent return).

• Gore (WAS): 3.80 ERA, better recent form (2.70 ERA last 3 starts).
  → Slight edge to Gore at home.

4. Injuries & Bullpen Impact

• Marlins: Missing key relievers (Nardi, Weathers) → bullpen vulnerable.

• Nationals: Missing Chafin, Law → middle relief weaker.
  → Late-game runs likely (lean Over).

5. Recent Trends & Ballpark Factors

• Last 2 games: MIA 11-9, 4-3 (high-scoring trends).

• Nationals Park: Slightly pitcher-friendly, but humidor effect → fewer HRs.

Final Custom Prediction:

• WAS 4.4 – MIA 3.5 (~7.9 total runs)

Combined Prediction (AI Models + Custom Model)

Key Takeaways:

1. Moneyline Pick: Washington Nationals (-180) is the consensus, but not a strong value.

2. Total Runs: Models average 7.7, suggesting slight value on Over 7.5.

3. Key Factors: Bullpen injuries, Gore’s form, and recent high-scoring trends favor Over.

Final Best Pick:

• Over 7.5 Runs (-110)