Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Arena: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
The upcoming NCAA basketball game between the Alabama State Hornets and the SMU Mustangs is generating buzz, and for good reason. With both teams looking to assert their dominance, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash of styles and strategies. The Mustangs, riding high on a recent championship win, are set to host the Hornets at Moody Coliseum in Dallas on December 3, 2024. As we dive into this analysis, we’ll explore each team’s current form, key statistics, notable injuries, and why betting on the under 156.5 total points could be a savvy move.
Current Form: Alabama State Hornets
Alabama State enters this game with a record of 3-4, but their recent performances have been a mixed bag. After a promising start, the Hornets have struggled on the road, currently holding a 0-4 record away from home. Their most recent outing was a tough 77-59 loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats, where Amarr Knox shone with a standout performance, scoring 24 points. Despite this individual brilliance, the team has had difficulty translating strong individual efforts into wins.
Key Statistics:
- Points Per Game: 79.1
- Field Goal Percentage: 42.7%
- Three-Point Shooting: Averaging 9.4 made three-pointers per game.
- Rebounds Per Game: 37.3
The Hornets have shown they can score but need to tighten their defense, as they allow an average of 78.1 points per game. Their ability to rebound effectively will be crucial against a strong SMU team.
Current Form: SMU Mustangs
On the other side of the court, the SMU Mustangs boast an impressive record of 6-2 and are coming off back-to-back victories against Cal Baptist and Washington State. Under first-year coach Andy Enfield, SMU has established itself as a formidable offensive force, averaging 86.8 points per game—ranking them among the top teams nationally.
Key Statistics:
- Points Per Game: 86.8
- Field Goal Percentage: 48.1%
- Three-Point Shooting: Averaging 8.3 made three-pointers per game.
- Rebounds Per Game: 41.8
SMU’s offensive efficiency is complemented by their defensive capabilities; they recently held Washington State to a season-low in scoring during their championship win at the Acrisure Holiday Invitational.
Notable Injuries
As of now, both teams appear to be relatively healthy with no significant injuries reported that would impact their rotations or strategies for this matchup. This is crucial as both coaches will rely heavily on their key players to perform at peak levels.
Why Bet the Under (156.5 Total Points)
Given the analysis of both teams’ current form and statistical profiles, betting on the under (156.5 total points) makes sense for several reasons:
- Defensive Improvements by SMU: The Mustangs have shown significant defensive improvement in recent games, particularly in their championship victory where they limited their opponent’s scoring opportunities effectively. If they maintain this level of defensive intensity against Alabama State’s high-scoring offense, it could lead to a lower-scoring affair.
- Alabama State’s Road Struggles: The Hornets have struggled offensively on the road, averaging fewer points compared to their home games. Their last outing against Cincinnati saw them score just 59 points—indicative of potential difficulties in replicating their scoring prowess away from home.
- Historical Matchup Trends: Previous matchups between these two teams suggest that when facing tougher defenses like SMU’s, Alabama State tends to struggle to reach high point totals.
Predicted Scores from Prediction Models
To further support our pick for the under-total points line, here are predictions from five respected NCAA basketball models:
- KenPom: SMU wins 82-66 (Total: 148)
- Sagarin Ratings: SMU wins 80-65 (Total: 145)
- Bart Torvik: SMU wins 81-67 (Total: 148)
- Haslametrics: SMU wins 79-68 (Total: 147)
- BPI (Basketball Power Index): SMU wins 83-64 (Total: 147)
These models consistently project totals well below the set line of 156.5 points, reinforcing the notion that a lower-scoring game is likely.
Conclusion
As we gear up for this thrilling matchup between Alabama State and SMU, it’s clear that both teams have something to prove. The Mustangs are looking to solidify their status as a powerhouse in college basketball while Alabama State aims to bounce back from recent setbacks and find their rhythm.
In terms of betting strategy, placing your chips on the under (156.5 total points) seems like a smart move based on statistical analysis and prediction models’ insights. With both teams’ current form and historical trends at play, expect a competitive yet potentially lower-scoring game as they clash on Tuesday night at Moody Coliseum.
PICK: under 156.5 total points LOSE
