Will Regression Hit the Pacers? Analyzing Game 2 Odds After Indiana’s Game 1 Stunner

The 2025 NBA Finals are off to a thrilling start, with the Indiana Pacers stealing Game 1 in a nail-biting 111-110 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now, as the series shifts back to Paycom Center for Game 2, the big question is: Can the Thunder respond, or will the Pacers take a commanding 2-0 lead?

Game 1 Recap: A Stunning Pacers Win

Few expected the Pacers to walk into Oklahoma City and steal home-court advantage, but they did just that in a down-to-the-wire thriller. Despite being underdogs, Indiana’s balanced scoring and clutch defense held off a late Thunder surge, leaving OKC searching for answers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a monster game, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Indiana’s relentless attack.

Now, the Thunder, who dominated the Western Conference all season, find themselves in uncharted territory: trailing in the Finals. Will they make the necessary adjustments, or will the Pacers continue to defy expectations?

Key Factors Heading Into Game 2

Several storylines will shape Game 2:

1. Thunder’s Home-Court Edge – Oklahoma City was nearly unbeatable at home in the playoffs before Game 1. Expect a more aggressive, focused effort in front of their crowd.

2. Adjustments from Both Coaches – OKC’s defense struggled to contain Indiana’s ball movement. Will they switch schemes? Meanwhile, the Pacers must prepare for a more physical Thunder team.

3. Momentum vs. Regression – Game 1 was close, but statistical models suggest OKC has the edge. Will variance swing back in their favor?

What to Watch For

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Dominance – Can he put the team on his back again?

• Pacers’ Three-Point Shooting – Indiana lives by the three; if they stay hot, they’ll be tough to beat.

• Rebounding Battle – With key Pacers big men out, OKC must control the glass.

Final Thoughts Before Tip-Off

Game 2 is a must-watch showdown with massive implications. If the Thunder lose, they’ll face a near-impossible 0-2 deficit. But if they win, this series could turn into a hard-fought battle.

Will Oklahoma City even the series, or will Indiana shock the world again? Stay tuned for our full breakdown and prediction—coming next!

Top AI Sports Betting Models’ Predictions

Our Custom Prediction Model

We incorporate:

• Pythagorean Win Expectation (accounts for points scored/allowed)

• Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Injury Adjustments (Isaiah Jackson & Jarace Walker out for IND; Nikola Topic out for OKC)

• Trends & Recent Performance (Pacers won Game 1, but Thunder likely to adjust)

Key Factors:

• Pacers won Game 1 by 1 point (111-110), but OKC had a higher net rating in the regular season.

• Thunder are stronger at home (projected to win by ~11 pts based on adjusted metrics).

• Injuries hurt Pacers’ depth (missing key frontcourt players).

• Game 1 was close, but regression favors OKC in Game 2.

Predicted Final Score:

• OKC 119 – 106 IND

• Spread Pick: OKC -10.5 (Confidence: Medium-High)

• Total Pick: Under 229 (Confidence: High)

Reasoning:

• ~10.5 points across models favor the Thunder, and our prediction aligns closely.

• The total (229) is inflated—Game 1 was an outlier (221 actual vs. 229 line). Expect tighter defense in Game 2.

• Pacers missing key big men could lead to OKC dominating the paint and forcing more misses.

Best Bets:

1. OKC -10.5 (Lean: Medium-High Confidence)

2. Under 229 (Lean: High Confidence)

Considering all the factors and my own prediction:

• Pick: Take the Indiana Pacers +10.5 points.