The NHL playoffs are reaching a critical point as the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes head into Game 3 of their Eastern Conference series on Saturday, May 10, 2025. The series is tied 1-1 after both teams won on the road in the first two games. Now, the battle moves to Raleigh’s Lenovo Center, where the Hurricanes hope to use their home-ice advantage to take control of the series. This game promises to be a tight, physical contest where defense and goaltending will play a huge role.
In this preview, we’ll break down what each team brings to the ice, how injuries affect their lineups, what the numbers say, and why the total goals scored will likely stay under 5.5. We’ll also look at five trusted prediction models to support our final score prediction.
Carolina Hurricanes: Home Ice and Heavy Pressure
The Hurricanes have built their playoff identity around relentless pressure and strong defense. They are one of the stingiest teams in the league when it comes to goals allowed, giving up just 1.92 goals per game in the playoffs. Their strategy is to shoot a lot, wear down opponents, and create scoring chances through volume.
Offensive Approach
Carolina’s offense is built on speed and skill. Players like Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho are dangerous every time they touch the puck. However, in the first two games, the Hurricanes have struggled to convert their chances into goals. They took 61 shots on goal but scored only three times, which is well below their regular-season shooting percentage.
Despite this, the team remains confident. Coach Rod Brind’Amour has said, “We’re generating chances and shots. The goals will come.” The Hurricanes’ power play is a major weapon, converting at a 28% rate, one of the best in the NHL. If Washington takes penalties, Carolina’s power play could be a deciding factor.
Defense and Goaltending
The Hurricanes’ defense is anchored by players like Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns, who provide both physicality and puck-moving ability. But the real key to their success is goalie Frederik Andersen. Andersen has been excellent this postseason, with a goals-against average (GAA) of 1.92 and a save percentage over .930. His ability to make big saves under pressure gives Carolina confidence to play aggressively.
Injuries
The Hurricanes are missing Jesper Fast due to a neck injury. Mark Jankowski is day-to-day and may return for Game 3, which would add depth to their forward group. Overall, Carolina’s lineup is relatively healthy compared to Washington’s, and playing at home gives them an extra boost.
Washington Capitals: Resilience and Timely Scoring
The Capitals have shown toughness and determination in this series. After losing Game 1, they bounced back with a solid 3-1 victory in Game 2. Their success was largely due to strong goaltending and balanced scoring from their forwards.
Offensive Strategy
Washington’s offense is led by veteran superstar Alex Ovechkin, who brings leadership and scoring ability. While Ovechkin has been quiet in terms of goals so far, he remains a constant threat, especially on the power play.
Other players like Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael have stepped up with important goals. The Capitals tend to rely on quality over quantity when it comes to shots. They don’t shoot as much as Carolina but try to make their chances count.
Defense and Goaltending
Logan Thompson has emerged as the Capitals’ key player in goal. His performance in Game 2 was outstanding, stopping 27 shots and making 16 saves in the third period alone. His confidence and composure have given Washington a chance to compete against Carolina’s heavy shot volume.
The Capitals’ defense has been disciplined, blocking 20 shots in Game 2 and limiting Carolina’s best scoring chances. Players like John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun are vital in both defending and starting offensive plays.
Injuries
Washington is dealing with several long-term injuries. Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, two important forwards, are out for the season. Martin Fehervary is also sidelined. These absences reduce Washington’s depth but have not stopped the team from competing hard.
Why Expect a Low-Scoring Game (Under 5.5 Goals)
Both teams have strong defenses and excellent goaltending, which usually leads to lower-scoring games in the playoffs. Let’s look at the main reasons why the total goals will likely stay under 5.5:
1. Elite Goaltending on Both Sides
Frederik Andersen and Logan Thompson are among the best goalies in the playoffs. Andersen has a GAA under 2.00 and a save percentage above .930, showing he can stop high-quality chances. Thompson has been equally impressive, especially in Game 2 where he made several critical saves in the final period.
2. Defensive Systems Limit Scoring
Both Carolina and Washington play disciplined defense. Carolina allows just 1.92 goals per game, the lowest in the playoffs. Washington isn’t far behind, giving up around 2.11 goals per game. Both teams block shots and protect the crease, making it difficult for opponents to find open shooting lanes.
3. Carolina’s Shooting Struggles
Even though Carolina takes many shots, their shooting percentage in this series is just 4.9%, much lower than their regular-season average of about 8%. This suggests some bad luck or strong goaltending from Washington. While this might improve over time, Washington’s defense and Thompson’s form will keep scoring tough.
4. Playoff Hockey is More Cautious
In the playoffs, teams tend to play more carefully. Mistakes are costly, so players focus on defense and making smart plays. This usually results in fewer goals than in the regular season.
What the Prediction Models Say
To support this analysis, here are the predicted scores from five well-known hockey prediction models:
| Model Name | Predicted Score | Total Goals |
|---|---|---|
| AP News Predictor | Hurricanes 2 – Capitals 1 | 3 |
| CBS Sports Analytics | Hurricanes 3 – Capitals 2 | 5 |
| Dimers Pro Model | Hurricanes 2 – Capitals 1 | 3 |
| Sporting Post AI | Hurricanes 3 – Capitals 1 | 4 |
| FanDuel numberFire | Hurricanes 2 – Capitals 0 | 2 |
Four out of five models predict fewer than 5.5 total goals, confirming the expectation of a low-scoring, defensive game.
How the Game Might Play Out
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First Period: Both teams start cautiously, feeling each other out. The goalies are sharp, and scoring chances are limited.
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Second Period: Carolina increases pressure, firing more shots and controlling possession. Washington looks for counterattack opportunities.
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Third Period: If the game is close, tension rises. Carolina’s power play might get chances if Washington takes penalties. Washington will rely on Thompson to make key saves and protect any lead.
Final Prediction
This game will be a tight, physical battle where every shot and save counts. Carolina’s home advantage and shot volume give them a slight edge, but Washington’s goaltending and disciplined defense keep the game close.
Final Score: Hurricanes 2, Capitals 1
Total Goals: Under 5.5
What to Watch
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Carolina’s power play: Their ability to score with the man advantage could decide the game.
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Logan Thompson’s performance: If Thompson stays hot, Washington has a chance to steal a win on the road.
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First goal: The team that scores first has won both games so far in this series.
Conclusion
Game 3 between the Capitals and Hurricanes promises to be a classic playoff hockey contest. Both teams are strong defensively and have top goalies who can steal games. Carolina’s home crowd and relentless pressure will push hard, but Washington’s resilience and goaltending will keep them in the fight. Fans should expect a tense, low-scoring game where small moments make a big difference.
Make sure to tune in on Saturday night to catch all the action as these two teams battle for control of the series.
PICK: under 5.5 total goals
