When Runners on Base Become the Deciding Factor for Chicago Against Pittsburgh’s Pitching

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates face off at Wrigley Field on Saturday, June 14, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. With the series tied 1-1, both teams are eager to gain the upper hand. This preview will break down the key factors shaping this game, analyze the starting pitchers, review recent team form, and explain why the total runs scored will likely stay under 7.5. Whether you’re a casual fan or a stats enthusiast, this detailed yet accessible guide will help you understand what to expect from this game.

Starting Pitchers: The Battle on the Mound

Matthew Boyd – Chicago Cubs (5-3, 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Matthew Boyd is the Cubs’ go-to left-hander for this game. This season, Boyd has been reliable, posting a strong 2.89 ERA and maintaining good control with a 1.23 WHIP. He strikes out nearly four batters for every walk, showing his ability to dominate hitters while limiting free passes. However, Boyd has historically struggled against the Pirates, holding an 0-3 record with a 6.53 ERA in six career starts versus Pittsburgh. In his last start against them on April 30, he allowed two earned runs over five innings.

Boyd’s strength lies in his consistent pitching style and ability to keep the ball in the park. He’s not overpowering but relies on command and mixing pitches to keep hitters off balance. At home in Wrigley Field, he tends to perform better, which gives the Cubs a slight edge.

Mike Burrows – Pittsburgh Pirates (1-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP)

Mike Burrows is a right-handed pitcher who will make his first career start against the Cubs. His season numbers are less impressive, with a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 18 innings pitched. Burrows has shown flashes of potential, striking out 17 batters while walking only 7, which indicates decent control. However, his higher ERA suggests inconsistency in run prevention.

Burrows relies heavily on a mix of fastballs and secondary pitches, including a curveball and changeup, to generate swings and misses. The Cubs’ lineup, which ranks second in MLB in runs scored, will test his ability to keep hitters off balance.

Team Form and Offensive Outlook

The Cubs come into this game with a strong 42-28 record and have shown dominance at home, winning over 70% of their games as favorites. Despite a recent loss in extra innings to the Pirates, Chicago’s offense remains potent. Players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have been key contributors, with Crow-Armstrong hitting consistently in June and Suzuki providing multiple hits in recent games.

However, the Cubs have struggled recently with runners in scoring position, going 0-for-10 in that situation in their last game. This inability to capitalize on scoring chances could limit their run output in this matchup.

The Pirates, meanwhile, have a 29-42 record and rank near the bottom offensively, averaging just 3.23 runs per game. Their pitching staff, however, is better than their offense, ranking 12th in ERA and 5th in WHIP. The Pirates have shown resilience, winning seven of their last ten games, including a recent extra-inning victory over the Cubs.

Injury Updates and Impact

Both teams have several players sidelined, but none that directly affect the starting pitchers or the core offensive lineup for this game. The Cubs are missing some bullpen depth and bench players, while the Pirates have a few key players out with shoulder and elbow injuries. These absences could influence late-game pitching decisions or bench options but are unlikely to change the overall outcome significantly.

Why the Total Runs Will Likely Stay Under 7.5

One of the most interesting aspects of this game is the projected total runs line set at 7.5. After analyzing several factors and predictive models, the evidence points toward a low-scoring game.

Key Reasons for the Under

• Strong Starting Pitching: Boyd’s solid ERA and control, combined with Burrows’ ability to strike out hitters, suggest both teams will have difficulty scoring many runs.

• Pirates’ Weak Offense: Pittsburgh’s offense is among the worst in MLB, averaging just 3.23 runs per game. Their lineup struggles to generate consistent hits and power.

• Cubs’ Recent Scoring Struggles: Chicago’s recent inability to drive in runs with runners in scoring position indicates they may not explode offensively despite their talent.

• Historical Trends: The Pirates have gone under 7.5 runs in 6 of their last 7 games, showing a pattern of low-scoring contests.

• Ballpark Factor: Wrigley Field is known for being pitcher-friendly at times, especially when the wind is blowing in, which can suppress scoring.

Predictions from Five Successful Models

To support the under 7.5 runs prediction, here are the final scores projected by five well-regarded predictive models:

All five models consistently predict a Cubs win with combined runs totaling between 7 and 8, mostly just under or right at the 7.5 line. This consensus strengthens the case for expecting a game with fewer than 8 total runs.

Final Thoughts and Game Outlook

Saturday’s game at Wrigley Field features a clear favorite in the Chicago Cubs, who have the home advantage, better overall record, and a more reliable starting pitcher. The Pirates’ recent form and pitching depth suggest they will keep the game competitive, but their weak offense will likely limit their scoring.

The Cubs’ recent struggles with runners in scoring position could keep the game closer than usual, but their overall offensive strength should be enough to secure a win. Matthew Boyd’s ability to control the game and limit runs will be crucial.

Given all these factors, expect a well-pitched, strategic game with scoring opportunities at a premium. The total runs will likely stay under 7.5, making this a classic pitchers’ duel with a final score around Cubs 5, Pirates 3.

Summary

• Starting Pitchers: Boyd (Cubs) vs. Burrows (Pirates), with Boyd favored due to better season stats and home advantage.

• Team Form: Cubs are strong at home and overall; Pirates are struggling offensively but pitching well.

• Injuries: No major impact players are missing for this game.

• Total Runs: Under 7.5 is the likely outcome due to pitching strength and offensive struggles.

• Model Predictions: Five top models agree on a Cubs win with combined runs near or below 7.5.

This game is a great example of how pitching and defense can dominate in baseball, and fans should expect a close, low-scoring affair at Wrigley Field.

My Pick: under 7.5 total runs