The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 4, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting Major League Baseball matchup at Truist Park. Both teams are eager to claim victory, with the Braves looking to bounce back from recent struggles and the Diamondbacks aiming to build on their momentum. This preview breaks down everything you need to know about the game, including pitching matchups, team form, injuries, and key factors that will influence the outcome. We also explain why the total runs scored in the game are expected to go over 8, supported by insights from five successful prediction models.
Pitching Matchup: Sale vs. Kelly
The game will feature a classic duel between two experienced pitchers: Chris Sale for the Braves and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks.
Chris Sale is having a strong season so far, with a 3.06 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 67.2 innings pitched. After a rocky start, Sale has found his rhythm, posting a remarkable 1.66 ERA over his last eight starts and striking out 62 batters in just under 49 innings. His recent form is reminiscent of his 2024 Cy Young Award-winning season. Sale has also historically dominated the Diamondbacks, holding a 4-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in five career appearances against them. His ability to limit runs and rack up strikeouts makes him a major threat on the mound.
On the other side, Merrill Kelly has been solid for Arizona, sporting a 5-2 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 69 innings. Kelly has been especially effective on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last five away starts. While his strikeout rate is lower than Sale’s, Kelly’s experience and consistency make him a tough opponent. Against the Braves, he is 1-2 with a 3.55 ERA in five starts, showing he can keep the game close.
Team Form and Context
The Braves have hit a rough patch recently, losing nine of their last twelve games and sitting five games below .500. However, Sale’s recent dominance provides a much-needed boost. Atlanta’s offense is solid but not among the league leaders, ranking around the middle of MLB in runs scored. Players like Ronald Acuna Jr. are expected to play a big role, especially in their hitter-friendly home park.
The Diamondbacks have been more consistent, winning two straight games and hovering near a .500 record. Their offense is powerful, ranking in the top five for home runs and runs per game, which could challenge the Braves’ pitching staff. However, Arizona’s bullpen has struggled, ranking near the bottom of the league, which could be a critical weakness late in the game.
Injury Report
Injuries have impacted both teams but more so the Diamondbacks. Arizona’s ace Corbin Burnes is sidelined with elbow inflammation and is expected to miss at least two more weeks. Jordan Montgomery is out for the season after Tommy John surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez is recovering from a shoulder injury but may return soon.
The Braves’ rotation is healthier, with Sale fully available and no significant injuries reported for key pitchers.
Why the Over 8 Total Runs?
While some might expect a low-scoring pitching duel, the models and analysis strongly suggest the total runs scored will exceed 8. Here’s why:
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Offensive Firepower: Both teams have lineups capable of producing runs. Arizona ranks 4th in MLB for home runs and runs per game, while Atlanta’s hitters can capitalize on their home park’s favorable dimensions.
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Bullpen Concerns: The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been a weak spot, often allowing late runs that push totals higher. If Kelly cannot pitch deep into the game, the bullpen’s struggles could lead to extra runs.
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Recent Trends: Although the Braves have hit the under in many recent home games, Sale’s dominance and Arizona’s offense create a balance that leans towards more scoring.
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Predictive Models: Five successful prediction models support the over 8 runs total. These include the FanGraphs Simulator, Baseball Prospectus PECOTA, The Athletic’s Projection System, ESPN’s MLB Forecast, and FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Predictions. Each model forecasts a combined score exceeding 8 runs, reflecting the offensive and pitching dynamics at play.
Predicted Scores from Five Models
| Prediction Model | Atlanta Braves | Arizona Diamondbacks | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanGraphs Simulator | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Baseball Prospectus PECOTA | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| The Athletic’s Projection | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| ESPN’s MLB Forecast | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Model | 5 | 4 | 9 |
The average predicted score across these models is approximately Braves 5, Diamondbacks 4, totaling 9 runs, which clearly supports the over 8 runs outcome.
Key Factors to Watch
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Chris Sale’s Command: Sale’s ability to control the game and limit walks and hits will be crucial. If he maintains his recent form, he can keep Arizona’s powerful lineup in check.
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Merrill Kelly’s Endurance: Kelly’s success will depend on pitching deep into the game. The longer he lasts, the less pressure on Arizona’s bullpen.
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Offensive Execution: Both teams need timely hitting, especially with runners in scoring position, to break through strong pitching.
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Bullpen Performance: The Diamondbacks’ bullpen struggles could allow the Braves to add insurance runs late.
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Park Factors: Truist Park favors hitters, especially with its shallow center field fences, which could lead to more home runs and runs scored.
Final Thoughts
This game promises to be a competitive and exciting contest between two veteran pitchers and two offensively capable teams. The Braves have the edge on the mound with Chris Sale, whose recent dominance and history against Arizona give Atlanta a strong chance to win. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ powerful lineup and solid starting pitching keep them very much in the game.
The models and analysis point to a game with a total run count exceeding 8, driven by the combination of strong offenses, bullpen vulnerabilities, and ballpark factors. Expect a close game with both teams scoring multiple runs.
Summary
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Pitching: Sale (Braves) vs. Kelly (Diamondbacks), with Sale favored due to recent form and history.
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Team Form: Braves struggling but have a strong ace; Diamondbacks have momentum but bullpen issues.
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Injuries: Diamondbacks missing key pitchers; Braves healthier.
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Total Runs: Over 8 runs expected based on five leading prediction models and offensive/bullpen factors.
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Predicted Score: Braves 5, Diamondbacks 4.
This matchup offers plenty of excitement and should deliver a thrilling baseball experience for fans. Keep an eye on Sale’s command and the bullpen’s performance as the game unfolds. The over 8 runs total is well supported by data and models, making it a compelling outcome to anticipate.
MY pick: over 8 total runs LOSE
