What’s at Stake When UCLA Visits Rutgers With Both Teams Looking for Confidence

The UCLA Bruins are reeling. After a three-game losing streak, they’re searching for answers on the road against a Rutgers Scarlet Knights team that has its own issues to resolve. When these two teams clash on January 13, 2025, at Jersey Mike’s Arena in Piscataway, NJ, you can expect drama, intensity, and plenty of action. Both teams are coming off tough stretches, with UCLA struggling defensively and Rutgers trying to regroup after some disappointing losses. This game is pivotal—not just for momentum but for pride.

Date: Monday, January 13, 2025

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Arena: Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, NJ

So, how does it all play out? Let’s dive in and break it down.

UCLA Bruins: Looking to Rebound

After starting the season strong, UCLA (11-5, 2-3 Big Ten) has faced a series of setbacks. The team was ranked as high as No. 2 in the nation, but recent road trips have left them exposed. With losses to Nebraska (66-58), Michigan (94-75), and Maryland (79-61), the Bruins’ defense, once their shining star, has faltered. They’ve allowed more than 75 points in their last two games, something that was unheard of earlier in the season.

Key Stats:

• Points per Game (PPG): 75.0 (15th in Big Ten)
• Opponent Points per Game (OPP PPG): 62.6 (17th nationally)
• Field Goal Percentage: 45.6% (5th in Big Ten)
• 3-Point Percentage: 33.8% (8th in Big Ten)

The Bruins’ offense has been inconsistent, and they are struggling to generate points in their recent losses. A key issue has been their inability to get more than one player going at a time. Leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (14.9 PPG) has carried the load, but there’s not enough offensive depth to compete with the likes of Michigan or Maryland.

Their defense has also taken a hit, especially against fast-paced teams, something they’ll need to tighten up moving forward. UCLA’s defensive efficiency has dropped since their impressive start to the season, but they are still capable of locking down when they focus.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Searching for Stability

Rutgers (8-8, 1-4 Big Ten) is in the middle of a rough patch. They’ve lost three straight games, all at home, and their struggles on both ends of the floor are glaring. The Scarlet Knights were beaten by Wisconsin (63-50) and Purdue (63-50), two teams they usually match up well with. The absence of freshman star Dylan Harper has been a significant blow to their offensive production. Harper, who leads the team with 20.1 points per game, has been dealing with illness, and his impact has been notably missing in recent losses.

Key Stats:

• Points per Game (PPG): 74.6 (7th in Big Ten)
• Opponent Points per Game (OPP PPG): 67.1 (9th in Big Ten)
• Field Goal Percentage: 44.2% (7th in Big Ten)
• 3-Point Percentage: 33.3% (9th in Big Ten)

Without Harper at full strength, Rutgers has struggled to find consistent scoring. They’ve been held under 60 points in their last two games, a stark contrast to their earlier-season form when they were averaging closer to 80 points per game. The Scarlet Knights need more production from their role players, particularly in terms of scoring and creating opportunities from the perimeter. If they can get Harper back to form, they might turn the tide in their favor, but it remains to be seen how quickly he’ll bounce back.

Key Injuries: A Major Factor

• UCLA: Aside from the typical nicks and bumps that come with a long season, the Bruins don’t have any major injuries affecting their lineup. Their struggles have been more about overall performance rather than personnel issues.
• Rutgers: The biggest injury concern here is the status of Dylan Harper. If he’s not fully recovered from his illness, Rutgers will have a tough time keeping up with UCLA, especially given their lack of offensive firepower in his absence.

Why the Over 139 Total Points Is the Optimal Pick

When it comes to predicting the total points in a game like this, we have to look at a few key factors: scoring trends, recent team performances, and matchups. Here’s why the over 139 total points is the most logical and confident pick:

1. UCLA’s Defensive Woes: While the Bruins’ defense has been solid for most of the season, they’ve given up 75 or more points in their last two games. This shows that when they face a team that can push the pace or hit from the outside, they are vulnerable. Rutgers, even with their scoring issues, still has the firepower to put up points, especially if Harper is back in full form. They’ve scored 60+ points in almost every game this season, and with UCLA’s shaky defense, they can be expected to score in the 60s, if not the low 70s.
2. Rutgers’ Offensive Revival: Even though Rutgers has struggled offensively in their recent losses, they are still averaging 74.6 points per game. If Harper can return to his usual self, that would immediately improve their offensive output. Against UCLA’s defense, which is not as sharp as it once was, Rutgers could very well push their scoring into the mid-70s, which will help push the total points.
3. UCLA’s Offensive Potential: UCLA has struggled on the road but is still capable of putting up solid offensive numbers. While they’ve been inconsistent, they’re averaging 75.0 points per game, which should be enough to cover a significant portion of the total points here. If UCLA gets back on track and plays at its usual pace, expect them to score in the mid-70s as well.
4. Pace of Play: Both teams are capable of playing at an up-tempo pace when needed. UCLA, while not a fast-break team, can score efficiently in transition. Rutgers has a solid offense when they can push the ball, and with both teams needing to get back on track, expect a faster game than some may anticipate.

Predicted Final Score Using Five NCAA BB Prediction Models

1. KenPom: UCLA 74, Rutgers 70
2. Sagarin Ratings: UCLA 75, Rutgers 71
3. Bart Torvik: UCLA 73, Rutgers 69
4. Haslametrics: UCLA 72, Rutgers 70
5. Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Metrics: UCLA 75, Rutgers 71

As you can see, the predicted final score from various respected prediction models ranges from 70 to 75 points for UCLA and 69 to 71 points for Rutgers. This aligns well with the total points being set at 139, as the models all predict a high-scoring game. This reinforces the idea that the over is the best pick, given both teams’ offensive capabilities and UCLA’s recent struggles defensively.

Conclusion: The Over Is the Safe Pick

This game is primed for an exciting, back-and-forth battle. While UCLA has struggled recently, their offense is still capable of putting up points, and Rutgers, especially with a healthy Dylan Harper, can score effectively. When you factor in both teams’ offensive capabilities, recent trends, and the fact that UCLA’s defense has been less effective than usual, the over 139 total points is the safest pick.

Expect a game in the high 70s or even low 80s. If you’re looking for an exciting, high-scoring game, this is it. Get ready for an intense showdown that could go down to the wire—make sure you don’t miss it.

PICK: over 139 total points