Baseball fans, get ready for an electrifying night! The rivalry is heating up as the Chicago Cubs clash with the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their series at Busch Stadium on Tuesday, June 24, 2025, at 7:45 PM ET. This isn’t just any game; it’s a divisional battle with significant implications, and all signs point to an offensive explosion!
You’ve tuned in for the ultimate breakdown, powered by the latest data, in-depth analysis, and top prediction models. We’re diving deep into every angle to give you the clearest picture of what’s to come. Forget the complexities; we’re breaking it down in simple, easy-to-understand terms so everyone can follow along. Our focus is crystal clear: expect a barrage of runs!
The Pitching Picture: More Hits Than Shutdowns?
On the mound for your Chicago Cubs is Jameson Taillon, a right-handed pitcher with a 2025 season record of 7 wins and 4 losses, sporting an earned run average (ERA) of 3.84. While that ERA looks decent, a closer look at advanced numbers, like his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.81, tells a slightly different story. FIP tries to show a pitcher’s true performance by only looking at what they can control, like strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Taillon’s higher FIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky this season and could be in for a bumpier ride.
Facing him for the St. Louis Cardinals is fellow right-hander Erick Fedde. He holds a 3-6 record with a more favorable 3.54 ERA. While his strikeout numbers might not be as flashy as Taillon’s, his lower ERA hints at better run prevention. He’s been a steady presence for the Cardinals, and they’ll rely on him to navigate the Cubs’ powerful lineup.
Both pitchers are right-handers, which is important for how each team’s hitters perform. Neither pitcher boasts dominant numbers that scream “total shutdown.” This sets the stage for offenses to shine, especially when both teams bring serious firepower.
Offensive Powerhouses: Cubs and Cardinals Light Up the Scoreboard
When it comes to scoring runs, the Chicago Cubs are a force! They lead Major League Baseball, averaging an incredible 5.84 runs per game. They also sit at the top for total hits, with 9.70 per game, and rank third in the league for home runs, smashing 113 so far this season. The Cubs’ lineup features red-hot hitters like Ian Happ, who has been on a tear with 8 home runs this month alone. Seiya Suzuki also poses a significant threat to any pitcher. This is an offense that can put up big numbers quickly.
The St. Louis Cardinals are no slouches either! They rank 8th in MLB for runs scored, averaging 4.89 runs per game, and are second in the league for total hits, with 9.13 per game. While they don’t hit as many home runs as the Cubs (ranking 24th), they still have dangerous hitters like Brendan Donovan, who boasts an impressive .308 batting average, and power threats in Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Crucially, the Cardinals’ offense tends to perform even better when playing at their home stadium, Busch Stadium.
Bullpen Battle: Who Holds Up in the Late Innings?
The bullpens, or relief pitchers, are crucial, especially in games where the starters might not go deep. The Chicago Cubs bullpen has had some recent struggles, giving up 31 runs in their last three losses and 38 runs over their past four games. While some sources say their bullpen has improved overall, these recent outings are a clear warning sign. They seem vulnerable, and that means more chances for opponents to score.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen, on the other hand, has been a more reliable unit. They are considered one of the more improved bullpens in the league and have generally performed well, helping them win close games. This difference in bullpen reliability could lead to late-inning scoring opportunities for both sides.
Defense and Ballpark Magic: A Closer Look
The Chicago Cubs have an excellent defense, ranking second in the league in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This means their fielders are very good at preventing runs. This strong defense can sometimes help their pitchers, even when things get tough.
Busch Stadium, where the game is played, has its own unique characteristics. While it’s generally considered a neutral park for overall run scoring, it significantly suppresses home runs. This means it’s harder to hit balls out of the park here. This factor might slightly favor the Cardinals, who rely less on home runs, but it won’t stop these two strong offenses from racking up hits and scoring runs through other means.
The Weather Report: Heat Means More Offense!
Get ready for a hot one! The forecast for Tuesday in St. Louis calls for very high temperatures, reaching up to 97 degrees Fahrenheit, with “feels like” temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit due to humidity. What does this mean for baseball? When it’s hot and humid, the air is thinner, allowing the baseball to travel farther. This usually leads to more offense and more runs scored. A light wind from the South might also give a slight push to balls hit towards left field.
Recent Form and Key Players
The Chicago Cubs are having a great season overall, leading their division. However, they’ve stumbled a bit recently, losing three of their last four games and giving up a lot of runs. Their offense, led by the sensational Ian Happ and power hitter Seiya Suzuki, remains top-tier.
The St. Louis Cardinals are chasing the Cubs in the standings and have been playing well at home. They had a five-game winning streak snapped recently but are generally in good form. Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras are always dangerous hitters for St. Louis, and Brendan Donovan has been hitting for a high average. This rivalry brings out the best in both teams, adding extra motivation to score.
Why I’m Confident in the Over 9 Total Runs Prediction
All signs point to a high-scoring affair. When we combine the offensive strength of both teams with the current pitching situations and bullpen trends, it’s clear that runs will be plentiful. Here’s why predicting Over 9 total runs is a confident choice for this matchup:
First, both teams bring formidable offenses to the table. The Cubs lead the entire league in runs scored, while the Cardinals are comfortably in the top 10. They consistently generate hits and put pressure on opposing pitchers. Even though Busch Stadium might limit home runs, these teams are capable of stringing together hits, finding gaps, and manufacturing runs in other ways.
Second, consider the starting pitchers. While both Taillon and Fedde are capable, neither is truly an elite shutdown pitcher. Taillon’s advanced FIP metrics suggest he’s due for more runs against him than his ERA indicates. Fedde, while having a slightly better ERA, isn’t known for overpowering hitters. This means both offenses will have opportunities to make contact and drive in runs.
Third, the bullpen situation is a major factor. The Cubs’ bullpen has been giving up a lot of runs lately, which is a significant concern for them but a green light for opposing hitters. Even if Taillon has a good start, the later innings could see a surge in scoring as the Cubs’ relievers take over. While the Cardinals’ bullpen is generally more reliable, even strong bullpens can have off nights, especially in high-intensity rivalry games.
Fourth, the weather conditions are highly favorable for offense. High temperatures and humidity make the ball travel further, turning routine fly balls into extra-base hits or even home runs. This hot weather acts as an invisible offensive boost, helping both teams rack up runs.
Finally, let’s look at what some respected baseball prediction models suggest:
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Model: Cardinals 6, Cubs 5
- Massey Ratings: Cubs 4, Cardinals 3 (total 7, but this is an outlier and their analysis shows high offensive averages for both teams)
- Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): High run totals over a full season strongly support individual games being high-scoring.
- The Action Network Model: Cardinals 6, Cubs 5
- Stats Insider’s Model: Cardinals 7, Cubs 5
Putting it all together, the offensive firepower, the starting pitching situations, the recent bullpen struggles for the Cubs, and the hot weather at Busch Stadium create a perfect storm for a game where the scoreboard will be very active. We expect both teams to cross the plate multiple times, easily pushing the final score past 9 runs.
My pick: over 9 total runs
