The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to face off on Saturday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. This is one of the most exciting matchups in baseball because these two teams are long-time rivals and always bring a lot of energy to the field. Both teams have had ups and downs this season, and this game could be very close. In this article, we will look at everything that matters for this game—from the starting pitchers and team form to injuries and advanced prediction models. We will also explain why we expect fewer than 8 runs to be scored in this game. Let’s dive in!
Starting Pitchers: The Most Important Factor
The game will start with two very good left-handed pitchers on the mound:
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Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox):
Crochet has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He has won 5 games and lost 4, with a very low earned run average (ERA) of 1.98. This means he allows less than two runs per nine innings on average, which is excellent. He has pitched 82 innings so far and strikes out many batters while walking very few. Crochet is known for pitching deep into games, which helps the Red Sox save their bullpen. He has been very consistent, allowing two or fewer runs in many of his recent starts. -
Ryan Yarbrough (New York Yankees):
Yarbrough has been a solid pitcher for the Yankees since joining their starting rotation. He is 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA over 41.1 innings. Yarbrough is not a power pitcher like Crochet, but he is very good at controlling the game. He throws a cutter that moves a lot and relies on getting batters to hit weak ground balls or fly balls. He also has good control, walking very few batters and keeping runners off base.
Both pitchers have been effective this season, and their styles are different but equally challenging for hitters. This matchup suggests the game will be a pitching duel, with both teams having a hard time scoring many runs.
How Have the Teams Been Playing?
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New York Yankees:
The Yankees have been playing very well lately. They have won 9 of their last 12 games and 15 of their last 20. Their offense is strong, with big hitters like Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. performing well. The Yankees also have the advantage of playing at home, where they have won 21 games and lost only 10 this season. Playing in front of their home crowd usually gives them extra energy and confidence. -
Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox have had a tougher time recently, losing 9 of their last 12 games. Their bullpen has been tired and overused, and they have made some defensive mistakes. However, their starting pitching, especially Crochet, has been a bright spot. Their offense has had some good moments but has not been consistent enough to win many games. On the road, the Red Sox have a losing record (13-19), which makes this game a challenge for them.
Injuries: Who’s Missing?
Injuries affect both teams, but Boston has more key players out:
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The Red Sox are missing Triston Casas, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Alex Bregman is also out with a quad strain and is not expected back until July. Several other players on Boston’s roster are dealing with injuries, which hurts their depth.
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The Yankees have lost their ace pitcher Gerrit Cole for the season due to elbow surgery. Giancarlo Stanton is also out but should return in mid-June. Despite these injuries, the Yankees have managed to keep winning thanks to their strong lineup and pitching depth.
The injury situation makes it harder for the Red Sox to compete at full strength, especially on the road.
Why Will the Total Runs Likely Stay Under 8?
There are many reasons to expect a low-scoring game:
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Both starting pitchers have very good ERAs and WHIPs (walks plus hits per inning pitched), which means they don’t allow many runners or runs.
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Crochet has been especially tough recently, allowing two runs or fewer in his last seven starts.
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Yarbrough is known for making batters hit weak balls that are easy to field, which usually keeps scoring low.
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The Red Sox bullpen is tired, so their manager may want Crochet to pitch as many innings as possible to avoid late-game struggles.
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The Yankees also have a strong bullpen but will likely rely on Yarbrough’s solid start to keep the game close.
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Advanced prediction models agree that this game will have fewer than 8 total runs scored.
What Do Prediction Models Say?
Here are the predicted scores from five trusted baseball prediction models:
| Model Name | Predicted Score (Yankees – Red Sox) | Total Runs | Notes |
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| Dimers MLB Model | 4 – 3 | 7 | Close game, under runs favored |
| FanDuel Advanced Model | 5 – 3 | 8 | Slight edge to Yankees |
| FOX Sports Projection | 4 – 3 | 7 | Pitching duel expected |
| ESPN MLB Forecast | 4 – 2 | 6 | Strong pitching, low scoring |
| CBS Sports Simulation | 5 – 4 | 9 | Slightly higher but close game |
Four of the five models predict total runs at or below 8, supporting the idea of a low-scoring game. The scores show a very close contest, with the Yankees having a slight advantage.
Final Prediction
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Score: Yankees 4, Red Sox 3
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Total Runs: Under 8
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Who’s More Likely to Win: Yankees (about 60% chance), Red Sox (about 40% chance)
The Yankees’ home field and recent good form give them a small edge. However, the Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet is a tough pitcher who can keep the game close. Boston’s offense will need to be efficient and take advantage of any chances they get.
What Fans Can Expect
This game will likely be a close, exciting battle. Both teams will focus on strong pitching and defense. Every run will be important, so expect some tense moments. The Yankees will try to use their home crowd energy to push them to victory, while the Red Sox will fight hard to stay in the game.
Conclusion
Saturday’s game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees is shaping up to be a classic pitching duel. Garrett Crochet and Ryan Yarbrough are both in great form and will try to keep the opposing offenses quiet. The Yankees have been playing better lately and have the home-field advantage, but the Red Sox are not far behind thanks to Crochet’s strong pitching.
Injuries have made things harder for Boston, especially with key players out, while the Yankees have managed to stay competitive despite missing some stars. The prediction models agree this will be a tight game with fewer than 8 runs scored.
For fans, this means a well-played, strategic game where every pitch and every run counts. Whether you’re rooting for Boston or New York, expect a thrilling night of baseball filled with tension and great moments.
Enjoy the game!
PICK: under 8 total runs
