1) Sources / what I found quickly online

• Odds / game market: Chargers road favorite, moneyline ~ LAC -186 / LV +154, spread LAC -3.5, total 46.5 (books and reporting consistent).

• ESPN matchup analytics shows Chargers ~59.5% win probability and publishes team totals (LAC ~24.5 / LV ~21.5).

• Reuters / local beat reports: Raiders TE Brock Bowers returned to practice and is listed questionable (looking likely to play), while Raiders OL Jackson Powers-Johnson missed practice / is ruled out.

• Chargers official injury report: Chargers have several defenders listed (Elijah Molden OUT, Denzel Perryman OUT; Del’Shawn Phillips questionable).

• Public model / pick pages with explicit projected scores: FOX Sports (predicted Chargers 26 – Raiders 17). Dimers (simulation model) predicted Chargers 24 – Raiders 21. OddsShark shows model outputs that imply about Chargers ~25.6 – Raiders ~18.0 (I round to practical integers when averaging). ESPN publishes team totals (24.5 / 21.5) that I converted to an implied 24.5–21.5 predicted score for averaging. (I could not find a public BetQL numeric final-score post to copy verbatim — many services provide win% or parlays rather than a single final-score output).

2) Model-score collection (what had an explicit numeric score or usable team-total)

I used the public numeric/team-total projections I could find from widely read outlets and simulation sites:

1. FOX Sports projection: LAC 26 – LV 17.

2. Dimers (simulation): LAC 24 – LV 21.

3. OddsShark (model output): LAC 26 – LV 18 (rounded from 25.6/18.0).

4. ESPN team totals converted to implied score: LAC 24.5 – LV 21.5 → treat as 24.5–21.5.

Note: BetQL and SportsLine publish probabilities, player projections and DFS numbers but did not expose a single final-score string I could cite publicly when I searched. Because the user asked for the “top 5” models, I prioritized the most-cited public projections; when a model did not publish an explicit final-score I noted it and used the other high-quality projections for the numeric averaging.

3) Averaging the model predictions (simple arithmetic)

I averaged the four explicit numeric/team-total predictions above.

• Chargers predicted points: (26 + 24 + 26 + 24.5) / 4 = 25.625 → 26 (rounded)

• Raiders predicted points: (17 + 21 + 18 + 21.5) / 4 = 19.875 → 20 (rounded)

Averaged public-model prediction = Chargers 26, Raiders 20 (Total = 46).
This averaged total (46) sits right under the market 46.5 total. Sources used in the average: FOX, Dimers, OddsShark, ESPN team totals.

4) My independent analysis (how I generated my own prediction)

A. Data / contextual inputs I used

• Recent Week-1 performance: Chargers beat KC 27–21 in the international game; Raiders beat New England 20–13. Both QBs (Herbert, Geno) looked good in Week 1.

• Rest / travel: Chargers played in Brazil on Sept 5 (long travel but extra rest before Week 2). Raiders played Sept 7 in New England (shorter rest). Extra rest historically tends to favor the rested team, especially for travel-sensitive positions (QB/OL/defense).

• Injury situation: Chargers are missing some defensive pieces (Elijah Molden out, Denzel Perryman out per team report), which weakens their run/pass defense depth. Raiders had Brock Bowers questionable but he returned to practice and looks likely to play; Raiders lost starting guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (out), which could hurt pass protection vs Chargers pass rush.

• Trends / stylistic matchup: Chargers have a top defense historical profile and a high-powered passing game (Herbert + weapons). Raiders under Chip Kelly can push tempo and generate big plays; Week-1 showed explosiveness from Geno. Historical Chargers vs Raiders matchups often produce competitive, moderately high-scoring games.

B. Pythagorean-style check (expected win % from scoring)

• With one week of limited data you can’t build a full-season Pythagorean view, so I used the model-average score (26–20) as the best available expected points baseline and reasoned margins from that:

  • A 6-point average margin (26–20) converts to roughly a ~60–65% win probability band for the favorite in typical NFL-score→win% mappings. That aligns with ESPN’s ~59.5% win probability.

C. Strength of Schedule (SOS) and other external factors

• SOS early in the season is noisy; both teams already played different Week-1 opponents (KC vs NE). Be cautious — single-game SOS is low-signal. The larger durable factors: Chargers’ defensive unit (returning core) and QB edge (Herbert) favor Chargers; Raiders’ home crowd and Chip Kelly pace favor Raiders. Injury swings (Chargers defensive absences vs Raiders OL out) largely offset each other in terms of net advantage.

D. Final independent score projection (my pick)

• Taking the averaged model baseline (26–20), adjusting for:

  • Chargers QB advantage (+),

  • Chargers defensive injuries (−),

  • Raiders OL out (− for Raiders),

  • Raiders TE Brock Bowers likely available (+ for Raiders offense),

  • Chargers longer rest (+ small advantage),
    I tilt slightly to the Chargers but expect a closer game than some models. My independent projected final score:

My prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 27 — Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Total = 48).

Rationale: I give Chargers the win (+6 margin) but expect both offenses to move the ball under favorable matchups, so total leans slightly higher than the averaged model (46 → my 48) because both QBs flashed big passing weeks and Chip Kelly’s pace tends to generate more plays.

5) News & injury check (critical recent items)

• Brock Bowers (Raiders TE): Returned to practice, listed questionable but likely to play. If he’s active, Raiders’ offense improves meaningfully.

• Jackson Powers-Johnson (Raiders G): Missed practices / out — OL change could hurt Raiders pass protection.

• Chargers injuries: Elijah Molden (CB) OUT; Denzel Perryman (LB) OUT; Del’Shawn Phillips questionable. Those defensive absences matter for Chargers’ run/pass defense depth.

6) Final Pick (straight answer)

• Quantified model average: Chargers 26 — Raiders 20 (average of public model/team-total projections I found).

• My independent projection: Chargers 27 — Raiders 21 (I expect Chargers to win and to cover the spread).

Bet recommendation (clear): Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread +3.5