Get ready for an exciting MLB matchup as the Cincinnati Reds visit the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Saturday, June 14, 2025, at 1:10 PM ET. This game promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams with very different seasons so far. The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball, while the Reds are fighting to find consistency. Let’s dive into the details and break down why the Tigers are favored to win and why the total runs scored in this game will likely stay under eight.
Pitching Matchup: The Key to the Game
The starting pitchers set the tone for any baseball game, and this one features a compelling duel.
Jack Flaherty (Detroit Tigers)
Flaherty has been pitching with renewed confidence and form this season. Despite a slow start, he has made four consecutive quality starts and won his last three games. His season stats stand at 5 wins and 6 losses with a solid 3.41 ERA over 71.1 innings pitched. He has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.70 and a low WHIP of 1.07, showing excellent control and the ability to limit baserunners. Flaherty also has a good track record against the Reds, with a 3.67 ERA in 10 career starts versus Cincinnati. His recent outings have been impressive, allowing just one run over his last 18 innings, including a six-inning shutout performance with nine strikeouts in his last start.
Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds)
Singer has a 6-4 record with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 68.2 innings this season. While he has had some success against the Tigers in the past (6-1 record with a 3.30 ERA in 13 starts), his recent form has been shaky. Over his last seven starts, he has allowed 23 runs in 35 1/3 innings, inflating his ERA to 5.86 during that span. However, his last outing was encouraging, giving up just two runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks, though it was cut short by rain. The Reds’ pitching depth is also weakened by injuries to key arms, including ace Hunter Greene, which puts more pressure on Singer to perform well.
Team Form and Offensive Firepower
The Tigers have been one of the most consistent teams this season, boasting a 46-25 record and a dominant 24-9 mark at home. Their offense is balanced and productive, averaging about 4.87 runs per game at home. Key hitters like Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene have been driving the offense, with Torres recently hitting two home runs in the previous game against Cincinnati. The Tigers’ pitching staff complements their offense well, with a team ERA near 3.25 and a WHIP around 1.17.
The Reds, meanwhile, have a 35-35 record and have struggled to maintain momentum. They have an average offense that scores about 4.51 runs per game but have been inconsistent. Their pitching staff has a higher ERA (around 3.88) and a WHIP of 1.21, and the bullpen has shown vulnerability, allowing 11 runs in back-to-back games recently. Injuries to several pitchers, including Greene and Alex Young, have further weakened their rotation and bullpen depth.
Home Field Advantage and Crowd Impact
Playing at Comerica Park gives the Tigers a significant edge. Detroit’s strong home record (24-9) reflects their comfort and confidence in front of their home fans. The crowd has been enthusiastic, filling the stadium and creating an energized atmosphere that boosts the Tigers’ performance. Jack Flaherty himself has remarked on how playing in front of a packed home crowd elevates the team’s play.
Injury Reports: Depth Matters
The Reds are dealing with multiple injuries to key pitchers, including Hunter Greene (groin), Alex Young (elbow), and Brandon Williamson (elbow), all of whom are out for the season or expected to miss significant time. This puts more strain on Brady Singer and the bullpen to carry the pitching load.
The Tigers have some injuries but have managed their roster well. Jeimer Candelario (back) and Austin Hays (foot) are expected to return soon, and the pitching staff is relatively healthy, with Flaherty in top form.
Why the Tigers Are Favored to Win
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Recent Dominance: The Tigers won the series opener 11-5, showing their ability to score runs and pitch effectively against the Reds.
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Pitching Edge: Flaherty’s recent form and home success give Detroit a clear advantage over Singer, who has struggled lately.
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Stronger Offense: Detroit’s balanced lineup and home runs from key hitters create more scoring opportunities.
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Better Health and Depth: The Tigers’ healthier roster and bullpen depth make them more reliable down the stretch.
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Home Field: Comerica Park’s atmosphere and Tigers’ home record favor Detroit.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 8 Total Runs Prediction
Despite the Tigers’ strong offense, the total runs scored in this game are expected to stay under eight. Here’s why:
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Flaherty’s Dominance: Flaherty has allowed just one run in his last 18 innings and has excellent control, limiting baserunners and big innings.
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Reds’ Offensive Inconsistency: While the Reds can score, their recent games have shown struggles against strong pitching, and their lineup lacks consistent power.
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Bullpen Concerns: Both teams have bullpen vulnerabilities, but the Tigers’ bullpen has been more reliable, helping keep the game low-scoring.
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Game Pace and Strategy: Both teams will likely focus on pitching and defense to avoid big innings, especially with Flaherty on the mound.
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Model Predictions: Five successful prediction models agree on a low-scoring game:
| Model Name | Predicted Score (Tigers – Reds) | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers MLB Model | 5 – 3 | 8 |
| PickDawgz Model | 6 – 3 | 9 (close) |
| SportsChatPlace Model | 5 – 2 | 7 |
| BaseballSavant Model | 4 – 3 | 7 |
| Scores24 Model | 6 – 3 | 9 (close) |
Most models predict total runs right around 7 to 8, supporting the under 8 total runs line.
Final Score Prediction
Detroit Tigers 6, Cincinnati Reds 3
The Tigers’ strong pitching, home advantage, and balanced offense should carry them to a solid win over the Reds. The Reds will put up some runs but likely won’t keep pace with Detroit’s firepower.
Conclusion
This game on June 14, 2025, at Comerica Park is shaping up to be a solid victory for the Detroit Tigers. Jack Flaherty’s excellent recent form and home pitching advantage give Detroit the edge over Brady Singer and the injury-weakened Reds. The Tigers’ offense, led by power hitters like Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene, will make the most of their opportunities. Meanwhile, the Reds’ pitching struggles and bullpen issues limit their chances.
Expect a well-pitched game with controlled scoring, making the under 8 total runs a confident prediction. Whether you’re a fan of the Tigers or Reds, this game promises quality baseball and a competitive atmosphere at one of MLB’s great ballparks.
My pick: under 8 total runs
