As the calendar year comes to a close, college basketball fans are gearing up for an exciting matchup between the Norfolk State Spartans and the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. This game, set for December 31, 2024, at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams look to solidify their standing ahead of conference play.
Date: Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Arena: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
With Tennessee riding high on a perfect season and Norfolk State eager to prove themselves against a powerhouse, this clash is sure to captivate audiences.
Current Form: A Tale of Two Teams
Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers have been nothing short of spectacular this season. With a flawless record of 12-0, they’ve demonstrated their prowess on both ends of the court. Tennessee has averaged an impressive 81.2 points per game while allowing just 67.4 points, showcasing their defensive tenacity and offensive firepower. Their last two outings saw them score over 80 points against Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee, with standout performances from Chaz Lanier, who has been lighting up the scoreboard with an average of 19.3 points per game.
The Volunteers are not just about one player; they boast a well-rounded attack with four players averaging double figures in scoring. Zakai Zeigler has been instrumental in orchestrating the offense, leading the team with 8.3 assists per game while also contributing significantly on the scoreboard. This depth makes Tennessee a formidable opponent for any team.
Norfolk State Spartans
On the flip side, Norfolk State enters this game with a record of 9-6 and a recent surge in form, having won three consecutive games. Their latest victory was a thrilling 77-74 win over High Point, where Brian Moore Jr. shone brightly with a career-high 33 points. Moore leads the Spartans this season with an average of 19.4 points per game and has been consistent in his scoring ability.
Norfolk State’s offense is characterized by its execution; they run set plays effectively and have shown resilience in close games. However, their defensive statistics tell a different story, as they allow an average of 74.1 points per game, which could be a significant concern against a high-scoring team like Tennessee.
Key Statistics: A Closer Look
When we delve into the numbers, several key statistics stand out:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: Tennessee’s effective field goal percentage sits at around 44%, while Norfolk State is slightly better at 45.9%. This indicates that both teams can score efficiently but highlights that Norfolk may have an edge in shooting.
- Turnover Rates: Tennessee has managed to keep their turnover rate at approximately 16.8%, which is commendable given their pace of play. In contrast, Norfolk State struggles more with turnovers at around 19.3%, which could lead to easy scoring opportunities for Tennessee.
- Rebounding: Tennessee holds a rebounding margin of +5.8 per game compared to Norfolk State’s -1.0 margin. This difference could play a crucial role in determining possession and second-chance opportunities during the game.
Notable Injuries
As of now, both teams appear to be relatively healthy heading into this matchup. However, it’s worth noting that Tennessee recently dealt with some internal turmoil as sophomore guard Cameron Carr left the team due to injury concerns and plans to transfer. While this may not significantly impact their current rotation, it could affect team chemistry.
Why I Pick the Over on Total Points
With the total set at 140.5 points, I believe betting on the over is the optimal strategy for this matchup based on several factors:
- Tennessee’s Offensive Firepower: The Volunteers have consistently scored over 80 points in their recent games and are averaging over 81 points for the season. Their ability to score quickly and efficiently will likely push the total higher.
- Norfolk State’s Scoring Ability: The Spartans are not just passengers in this game; they have shown they can put up points, averaging around 74 points per game themselves. If they can maintain or exceed this average against Tennessee’s defense, it will contribute significantly to hitting the over.
- Prediction Models Support: Various NCAA basketball prediction models provide insights into expected outcomes:
- KenPom predicts a final score of 82-68, which totals 150 points, very close to our line.
- Bart Torvik offers a similar projection of 81-59, totaling 140 points.
- Sagarin Ratings suggest a score of 83-60, totaling 143 points.
- BPI (Basketball Power Index) forecasts 84-59, totaling 143 points.
- Finally, another model predicts 80-65, giving us 145 total points.
These predictions indicate that reaching or exceeding the total is highly plausible given both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Conclusion: A High-Scoring Affair Ahead
As we gear up for this exciting matchup between Norfolk State and Tennessee, it’s clear that both teams bring unique strengths to the court. While Tennessee boasts an impressive record and formidable offensive depth, Norfolk State has shown resilience and scoring potential that could surprise many observers.
Expect an action-packed game filled with fast breaks, three-pointers, and intense competition as these two teams clash on New Year’s Eve!
PICK: over 140.5 total points LOSE
