Date: Thursday, December 12, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: Cassell Coliseum Blacksburg, VA
As the college basketball season heats up, fans are gearing up for an exciting matchup between the North Carolina A&T Aggies and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Scheduled for Thursday night at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia, this game features two teams eager to break their losing streaks. With both squads struggling to find their rhythm, this clash promises to be a pivotal moment in their seasons.
Will the Hokies leverage their home-court advantage, or can the Aggies pull off an upset? Let’s dive into the details!
Current Form: North Carolina A&T Aggies
The North Carolina A&T Aggies enter this game with a record of 3-6, currently on a four-game losing streak. Their recent performances have been marked by inconsistent shooting and defensive lapses. In their last outing against UNC Greensboro, they managed only 55 points while shooting a dismal 13% from beyond the arc. This lack of offensive firepower has been a recurring theme for the Aggies, who are averaging just 65.6 points per game this season.
Key Statistics:
- Offensive Efficiency: 65.6 PPG (ranked 306th nationally)
- Defensive Efficiency: 77.9 PPG allowed (ranked 324th)
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: 38.8%
- Turnover Rate: 19.3%
- Rebounding Percentage: 31.9%
Despite these struggles, there are glimmers of hope for the Aggies. Ryan Forrest leads the team with an impressive average of 19.9 points per game, showcasing his ability to score under pressure. Additionally, Landon Glasper is expected to return after missing time due to disciplinary issues, which could provide a much-needed boost to their offensive capabilities.
Current Form: Virginia Tech Hokies
On the flip side, the Virginia Tech Hokies also sit at 3-6 but have faced a tougher slate of opponents in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). They are currently on a six-game losing streak, with their most recent loss coming against then-No. 18 Pittsburgh in a close 64-59 battle. While they’ve struggled to find consistency on offense—failing to score more than 64 points in any of their last six games—the Hokies have shown flashes of potential.
Key Statistics:
- Offensive Efficiency: 74.9 PPG (ranked 137th)
- Defensive Efficiency: 71.0 PPG allowed (ranked 139th)
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: Approximately 47.4%
- Turnover Rate: 12.7%
- Rebounding Percentage: 28.9%
Tobi Lawal leads Virginia Tech with an average of 11.9 points per game, while Jaden Schutt has emerged as a key contributor from beyond the arc, hitting four three-pointers in the recent game against Pittsburgh. The Hokies’ ability to move the ball effectively and create open shots will be crucial if they want to snap their losing streak.
Notable Injuries
Injuries can significantly impact team dynamics, and both squads have had their share of challenges this season:
- North Carolina A&T:
- Landon Glasper is expected to return after missing the last game due to disciplinary reasons, which could enhance their scoring options.
- Virginia Tech:
- The Hokies appear to be healthy overall, with no significant injuries reported that would affect their rotation.
Why I Pick the Under on Total Points (145.5)
Given both teams’ recent struggles on offense and defensive inconsistencies, I’m leaning towards betting on the under for total points set at 145.5. Here’s why:
- Scoring Trends: Both teams have shown difficulty in consistently putting up points lately. NC A&T has averaged just over 65 points per game this season and has struggled significantly from three-point range (13% in their last outing). Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has not surpassed 64 points in any of its last six games.
- Defensive Focus: While both teams have faced challenges defensively, Virginia Tech’s ability to limit scoring opportunities can play a significant role in keeping the total under control. Their recent performance against a potent Pittsburgh offense demonstrates that they can execute defensively when needed.
- Prediction Models Support: Utilizing five respected NCAA basketball prediction models—KenPom, Bart Torvik, Sagarin Ratings, Haslametrics, and BPI—provides insight into expected scoring outputs for both teams:
- KenPom predicts a final score of Virginia Tech 75, NC A&T 62.
- Bart Torvik projects Virginia Tech at around 74 points and NC A&T at approximately 61.
- Sagarin Ratings suggest a score of Virginia Tech 76 and NC A&T 60.
- Haslametrics offers a similar view with Virginia Tech at about 73 points and NC A&T at around 62.
- BPI forecasts Virginia Tech scoring around 75 points while limiting NC A&T to about 61.
These projections indicate that total scoring will likely fall below the set line of 145.5, reinforcing my pick for the under.
Predicted Scores
Based on all this analysis and model projections:
- Virginia Tech Hokies: 75
- North Carolina A&T Aggies: 62
Conclusion
As we approach tip-off for this intriguing matchup between North Carolina A&T and Virginia Tech, it’s clear that both teams are fighting for momentum amid challenging seasons. The Hokies will look to leverage their home advantage and break their losing streak against an Aggies squad desperate for a win.
With both teams struggling offensively and relying heavily on key players like Ryan Forrest and Tobi Lawal, expect a tactical battle that may not yield high scores but will keep fans engaged until the final buzzer.
Betting on the under at 145.5 points seems like a wise choice given recent trends and statistical analyses supporting lower-scoring outputs from both sides.
PICK: under 145.5 total points WIN
