Upset Alert? Spartans Look to Shock Cougars on the Road

Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Arena: Gesa Field at Martin Stadium Pullman, WA

are in for a treat this Friday night when the San Jose State Spartans (3-0) travel to Pullman to face the Washington State Cougars (3-0) in a battle of unbeaten teams. This intriguing non-conference matchup pits a surging Mountain West program against a Pac-12 team riding high after an emotional Apple Cup victory. Let’s explore why this game has all the makings of an upset special.

Two Teams on the Rise

The San Jose State Spartans and Washington State Cougars have both emerged as programs on the upswing, each boasting perfect 3-0 records to start the 2024 season. Let’s take a closer look at their impressive trajectories:

San Jose State Spartans

Under new head coach Ken Niumatalolo, the Spartans have become one of the most consistent Group of Five programs in the country. Their recent success includes:

• A 9-1 record in their last 10 games dating back to 2023
• Three convincing wins to open 2024:
  • 42-24 vs. Sacramento State
  • 17-7 at Air Force
  • 31-10 vs. Kennesaw State
• Niumatalolo bringing his triple-option expertise from Navy, but adapting it to fit SJSU’s personnel
• A balanced offensive attack led by QB Emmett Brown (915 passing yards, 9 TDs) and WR Nick Nash (485 receiving yards, 6 TDs)
• A stingy defense allowing just 13.7 points per game (38th nationally)

Washington State Cougars

Jake Dickert has the Cougars firing on all cylinders in his third year as head coach:

• A perfect 3-0 start, including wins over two Power 5 opponents
• Signature victory in the Apple Cup, defeating rival Washington 24-19
• Impressive wins to open 2024:
  • 50-24 vs. Portland State
  • 37-16 vs. Texas Tech
  • 24-19 at Washington
• Emergence of dual-threat QB John Mateer (712 passing yards, 7 TDs; 314 rushing yards, 4 TDs)
• Nation-leading 19.2 yards per completion
• A high-powered offense averaging 43.7 points per game (13th nationally)

Offensive Fireworks

Both teams feature explosive offenses led by dynamic quarterbacks. San Jose State’s Emmett Brown has been sensational, throwing for 915 yards and 9 touchdowns through three games. His favorite target, Nick Nash, leads the nation in several receiving categories, including touchdowns (6) and yards per game (161.7).

For Washington State, sophomore John Mateer has emerged as a dual-threat star. He’s passed for 712 yards and 7 touchdowns while also leading the team in rushing with 314 yards and 4 scores on the ground. The Cougars’ offense ranks 13th nationally, averaging 43.7 points per game.

Defensive Differences

While both teams can light up the scoreboard, their defenses tell different stories. San Jose State has been stingy, allowing just 13.7 points per game (38th nationally). Washington State, on the other hand, has been more vulnerable, giving up 21.7 points per contest (76th).

Key Matchup: Nash vs. Cougars’ Secondary

The game could hinge on whether Washington State can slow down Nick Nash. The Spartans’ star receiver is coming off a record-setting 17-catch, 225-yard performance against Kennesaw State. He’ll test a Cougars’ secondary with some cracks, ranking 68th in pass defense efficiency.

Why San Jose State +12.5 is the Play

While Washington State deserves to be favored at home, the 12.5-point spread feels too wide. Here’s why the Spartans are primed to keep this one close:

1. Offensive firepower: San Jose State has the weapons to trade punches with the Cougars.
2. Defensive edge: The Spartans’ stingier defense gives them a better chance to get key stops.
3. Letdown factor: Washington State might still be riding high from their Apple Cup win, leading to a slow start.
4. Coaching experience: Ken Niumatalolo brings a wealth of big-game experience from his time at the Navy.

Model Predictions

Let’s see how five prominent college football prediction models view this matchup:

1. ESPN’s Football Power Index: Washington State 34, San Jose State 25
2. SportsLine Projection Model: Washington State 31, San Jose State 27
3. TeamRankings Predictive Model: Washington State 33, San Jose State 31
4. Massey Ratings: Washington State 35, San Jose State 23
5. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings: Washington State 30, San Jose State 19

While the models favor Washington State to win, they suggest a closer game than the current spread indicates. The average predicted margin of victory is 11.8 points, just under the 12.5-point spread.

The X-Factor: Transfer Portal Impact

Both teams have benefited from key transfer additions. San Jose State landed running back Floyd Chalk IV from Grambling State, who’s already rushed for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. For Washington State, wide receiver Kyle Williams (184 yards, 3 TDs) has provided a big-play threat after transferring from UNLV.

Conclusion: Expect a Competitive Clash

While Washington State has the talent to pull away, San Jose State’s balanced attack and stout defense should keep them within striking distance. The Spartans have covered the spread in all three games this season, and I expect that trend to continue Friday night.

Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire, with the Cougars escaping with a narrow victory. Take San Jose State and the points in what promises to be an entertaining, high-scoring affair under the Palouse night sky.

PICK: San Jose State +12.5 point spread