Date: Saturday, September 21, 2024

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET

Arena: Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA

Get ready for a thrilling showdown as the Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-1) travel to Ames to face the No. 20 Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) at Jack Trice Stadium this Saturday, September 21, 2024. This non-conference clash promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams looking to make a statement early in the season.

The Cyclones are riding high after a dramatic 20-19 victory over in-state rival Iowa, thanks to a clutch 54-yard field goal by redshirt freshman Kyle Konrardy. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is coming off a respectable 28-18 loss to powerhouse Michigan, where they showed some fight against a top-tier opponent.

Let’s take a closer look at how these teams stack up:

Iowa State Cyclones: Building Momentum

Iowa State has started the season strong, with their defense leading the charge. They’ve allowed just one touchdown and 22 points in their first two games. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht has been efficient, completing 70.5% of his passes for 539 yards, 4 touchdowns, and only 1 interception.

The Cyclones’ receiving corps is led by senior Jaylin Noel, who has 13 receptions for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 134 yards per game. On the defensive side, keep an eye on defensive back Malik Verdon, who has racked up 21 tackles and 2 tackles for loss.

Arkansas State Red Wolves: Underdogs with Bite

Don’t let Arkansas State’s 2-1 record fool you – this team has shown some serious potential. Sophomore quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 712 yards and 3 touchdowns, while also contributing 122 rushing yards and 2 scores on the ground. His dual-threat capabilities could pose problems for the Cyclones’ defense.

Wide receiver Corey Rucker has been Raynor’s favorite target, hauling in 17 receptions for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Red Wolves’ offense is averaging a respectable 26.7 points per game, which is significantly higher than Iowa State’s 20.5 points per game.

Matchup Analysis

Iowa State’s stingy defense will be put to the test against Arkansas State’s more prolific offense. The Cyclones have excelled in red zone defense, allowing only one touchdown in five opponent trips inside the 20-yard line. However, they haven’t faced an offense as dynamic as the Red Wolves’ yet this season.

On the flip side, Arkansas State’s defense has struggled, allowing 27.7 points per game. This could be an opportunity for Iowa State’s offense to find its rhythm and put up some points.

Why Take Arkansas State +20.5

While Iowa State is favored in this matchup, there are compelling reasons to consider taking Arkansas State with the 20.5-point spread:

Arkansas State’s offense is more prolific, averaging 26.7 points per game compared to Iowa State’s 20.5.
The Red Wolves showed resilience against Michigan, keeping the game relatively close.
Iowa State’s offense hasn’t been explosive, which could make it difficult to cover such a large spread.
Arkansas State has a dual-threat quarterback in Jaylen Raynor, who could create problems for the Cyclones’ defense.

Prediction Models

Let’s look at what five successful NCAA football prediction models say about this matchup:

ESPN’s Football Power Index: Iowa State 40, Arkansas State 23
Dimers.com Predictive Model: Iowa State 37, Arkansas State 26
Sagarin Ratings: Iowa State 42, Arkansas State 20
SP+ (Bill Connelly): Iowa State 38, Arkansas State 24
Massey Ratings: Iowa State 39, Arkansas State 22

This indicates that Arkansas State covering the 20.5-point spread is within reach, especially if their offense can find success against the Cyclones’ tough defense.

Conclusion

This matchup between Iowa State and Arkansas State promises to be more competitive than the odds might suggest. While the Cyclones are rightfully favored at home, the Red Wolves have shown they can hang tough against quality opponents. Their dynamic offense, led by Jaylen Raynor, could keep this game closer than expected.

Taking Arkansas State with the 20.5-point spread looks like a smart play. The Red Wolves have the offensive firepower to potentially keep pace with Iowa State, and the Cyclones haven’t shown the kind of explosive offense needed to run up the score. While an outright upset might be a stretch, don’t be surprised if Arkansas State keeps this one within three touchdowns.

PICK: Arkansas State covering the 20.5-point spread LOSE