It’s a beautiful night for baseball in Milwaukee, and all signs are pointing toward an exciting matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers. But more than just another Monday night game, this one presents a strong opportunity for fans watching the scoreboard — especially when it comes to expecting a high-scoring game.
With the total set at 8.5 runs, the numbers, the trends, and the game conditions are all lining up to support one clear prediction: the over is the most logical play in this matchup. Let’s take a close look at why this game has all the pieces for a run-filled night.
Offense Sets the Tone
The Milwaukee Brewers are on fire. Fresh off a sweep of the Minnesota Twins, they’ve scored 35 runs over their last three games, averaging more than 11 runs per game during that stretch. That’s not just hot — that’s red-hot. They’ve been putting up runs in every way imaginable: home runs, doubles in the gap, bases-loaded singles — you name it. Milwaukee has scored at least 8 runs in four straight games, which gives plenty of confidence that they can once again push the scoreboard.
Leading the way is Christian Yelich, who has caught fire in June. After a slow start to the season, Yelich is now batting .349 this month with 15 RBIs in just 63 at-bats. Over the weekend series alone, he went 8-for-14 with 10 RBIs. His return to form has lifted the entire offense, and the Brewers are now one of the most productive lineups in the National League heading into this game.
The Pitching Matchup Favors Offense
On the mound, things get even more interesting — especially if you’re looking for reasons to trust the over. Pittsburgh is giving the ball to rookie right-hander Braxton Ashcraft, who will be making his first-ever Major League start. While he’s been sharp in relief appearances (posting a 1.54 ERA over 11.2 innings), the transition from bullpen to starter is no small task. He’s yet to face a full lineup more than once in a game, and that could be a big problem against Milwaukee’s red-hot bats. It’s unlikely Ashcraft will go deep into the game, and with Pittsburgh’s bullpen dealing with multiple injuries, that opens the door for Milwaukee to score across multiple innings.
On the other side is Chad Patrick, another rookie arm who has shown flashes of quality this season but has hit a rough patch in June. He’s allowed 10 earned runs over his last 16 innings, including three home runs. He hasn’t made it past five innings in either of his last two starts. While he’s had decent control and a respectable ERA overall (3.50), his current form suggests that Pittsburgh should be able to put some runs on the board — especially with hitters like Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, and Bryan Reynolds finding their rhythm.
Pittsburgh’s Lineup Starting to Show Life
The Pirates have had trouble scoring consistently over the last couple of weeks, but their 8-3 win on Sunday may have been a turning point. They racked up 15 hits in that game and were 7-for-14 with runners in scoring position. That type of offensive performance can carry over into the next game, especially against a pitcher like Patrick who’s been struggling lately. Andrew McCutchen, in particular, has been steady. He’s hitting .317 over his last 14 games and continues to be a reliable bat at the top of the lineup.
Even though Pittsburgh has had scoring droughts recently, their bats are capable of putting together a few solid innings. If they can get to Patrick early or force him out before the fifth inning, there’s a real chance for the Pirates to contribute 3-5 runs to the total themselves — a major boost to pushing this game over the 8.5 line.
Five Prediction Models Support a High-Scoring Game
To make sure this isn’t just about feel or momentum, I also looked at the numbers from some of the most trusted MLB predictive models out there — and they all agree: this game is likely to go over the total.
Here are the projected final scores from five respected systems:
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FanGraphs: Brewers 6, Pirates 4
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FiveThirtyEight: Brewers 5.9, Pirates 3.8
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Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): Brewers 6.2, Pirates 3.6
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Massey Ratings: Brewers 6.1, Pirates 4.2
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The Action Network Model: Brewers 6.0, Pirates 4.0
The average total from these five models is 9.96 runs, which is well above the current 8.5 line. When this many different systems — all using their own statistical formulas, simulations, and player data — align this strongly, it’s a good sign that the prediction is on solid ground.
Why I’m Confident in the Over 8.5 Total Runs Prediction
This isn’t a guess. This is a prediction backed by performance, data, and matchup insight. The Brewers are scoring in bunches, with Yelich leading a lineup that looks locked in. The Pirates may not be as explosive, but with the Brewers’ starting pitcher showing recent struggles and the bullpen expected to do heavy lifting, Pittsburgh is in a good position to add some runs of their own.
The pitching on both sides isn’t likely to dominate. Ashcraft has been good out of the bullpen, but this will be his first career start, and that comes with plenty of unknowns. Patrick has had a decent season overall, but his June numbers are trending in the wrong direction. And when you combine shaky starters with tired or thin bullpens and surging hitters, especially in a hitter-friendly park like American Family Field, the conditions are perfect for a high-scoring game.
Both teams have hitters who are heating up, and both pitchers could struggle to go deep into the game. The models agree. The stats agree. And the eye test says this one should go over 8.5 total runs with room to spare.
Final Thoughts
This matchup between the Pirates and Brewers has the makings of a game filled with action, base runners, and scoring opportunities from both sides. The Brewers are playing with confidence and are showing just how dangerous their offense can be when it’s clicking. The Pirates, despite their recent struggles, just reminded everyone on Sunday that they’re fully capable of producing at the plate when the timing is right.
With two rookie pitchers starting, one making his debut as a starter, and both teams coming off games where the bats were active, it makes complete sense to expect the total to go over 8.5 runs.
So sit back, enjoy the game, and if you’re keeping an eye on the scoreboard, expect to see plenty of runs cross the plate at American Family Field tonight.
My Pick: over 8.5 total runs
