Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 6:45 p.m. ET, Nationals Park in Washington D.C
As the crisp autumn air settles over Washington D.C., baseball fans eagerly anticipate the upcoming four-game series between the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals. This matchup brings together two teams with vastly different seasons, each looking to make their mark in the final stretch of the 2024 MLB campaign.
The Struggling Marlins: A Season of Challenges
The Miami Marlins have faced a tumultuous season, currently sitting at 54-92. Their struggles are evident in both their offensive and defensive performances. With a team batting average of .241, the Marlins have struggled to generate consistent offense, scoring only 556 runs this season. Their pitching staff has also faced challenges, posting a team ERA of 4.73.
Despite these difficulties, the Marlins have shown flashes of potential. Rookie second baseman Otto Lopez has been a bright spot, riding a six-game hitting streak and batting an impressive .458 during that span. However, injuries have plagued the team, with key players like Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo sidelined for the remainder of the season.
The Nationals: Finding Their Stride
In contrast, the Washington Nationals have shown signs of improvement, boasting a 65-80 record. While still below .500, the Nationals have outperformed expectations, particularly in their head-to-head matchups against the Marlins this season, winning 8 out of 9 games.
The Nationals’ offense has been more productive than their opponents, scoring 609 runs with a team batting average of .245. Their pitching staff has also performed better, maintaining a team ERA of 4.35. Young talents like Dylan Crews and James Wood have injected energy into the lineup, with both players showcasing their ability to get on base consistently.
A Tale of Two Pitchers
The mound duel for this game features an intriguing contrast of experience and potential.
For the Marlins, right-hander Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.40 ERA) takes the hill. McCaughan has limited MLB experience this season, pitching 24.1 innings with a WHIP of 1.85 and a SO/BB ratio of 1.40. His performance on the road has been particularly challenging, with a 10.66 ERA in three appearances away from home.
The Nationals counter with left-hander DJ Herz (3-7, 3.82 ERA). Herz has shown promise in his 75.1 innings of work, maintaining a respectable WHIP of 1.22 and an impressive SO/BB ratio of 3.21. As a rookie, Herz is just two wins shy of tying the Nationals’ record for wins by a first-year pitcher.
The Case for a Low-Scoring Affair
While the over/under for this game is set at 9, there are compelling reasons to consider the under as a potentially smart bet:
- Pitcher’s Park: Nationals Park tends to favor pitchers, which could suppress offensive output.
- Marlins’ Offensive Struggles: Miami’s low team batting average and run production suggest they may have difficulty putting up big numbers.
- Nationals’ Improved Pitching: Washington’s team ERA indicates their pitching staff has been more effective than Miami’s this season.
- Herz’s Potential: The young Nationals starter has shown the ability to limit runs and could be motivated to chase the rookie wins record.
- Late Season Fatigue: As the season winds down, both teams may be feeling the effects of a long campaign, potentially leading to lower offensive output.
- Head-to-Head History: While the Nationals have dominated the season series, many of the games have been relatively low-scoring affairs.
Pick: Under 9
