Date: Friday, September 6, 2024

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Arena: Gerald J. Ford Stadium Dallas, TX

Excitement fills the air at Gerald J. Ford Stadium where the BYU Cougars will take on the SMU Mustangs. This matchup isn’t just another game on the schedule; it’s a clash between two teams looking to establish their identities early in the season. With the Cougars coming off a convincing win and the Mustangs riding high after a dominant performance, fans can expect a thrilling contest under the Friday night lights.

Importance of the Game

This game carries significant weight for both teams. For SMU, a victory would solidify their status as a contender in the Atlantic Coast Conference after a strong start to the season. Meanwhile, BYU, having recently transitioned to a new league, aims to prove they can compete at a higher level. With both teams eager to make a statement, this matchup promises to be a showcase of talent, strategy, and determination.

Team Analysis

SMU Mustangs Overview

The Mustangs enter this game with a 2-0 record, highlighted by a resounding 59-7 victory over Houston Christian. Their offense has been explosive, averaging 44.5 points per game, while their defense has been stingy, allowing just 17.5 points per game.

Key Players:

Preston Stone (QB): Stone has been effective, throwing for multiple touchdowns and showcasing his ability to lead the offense.
Brashard Smith (RB): With 108 rushing yards in the last game, Smith is a key component of the Mustangs’ ground game.
Anthony Booker (DT): The 348-pound nose tackle not only anchors the defensive line but also scored a touchdown last week, demonstrating his impact on both sides of the ball.

Strengths: SMU excels in offensive explosiveness and defensive tenacity. Their ability to create turnovers and capitalize on short fields has been a game-changer.

Weaknesses: Despite their strong start, questions remain about their consistency against tougher competition. The Mustangs will need to prove they can maintain their high level of play against a Power Five opponent.

BYU Cougars Overview

BYU comes into this matchup with a 1-0 record after a convincing 41-13 win over Southern Illinois. The Cougars displayed a balanced offense and a solid defense, averaging 41 points while allowing just 13 in their season opener.Key Players:

Jake Retzlaff (QB): Retzlaff had an impressive debut, throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns, establishing himself as a leader on the field.
LJ Martin (RB): The talented running back contributed significantly in the last game, providing balance to the offense.
Isaiah Nwokobia (DB): As a key member of the secondary, Nwokobia’s ability to disrupt passing plays will be crucial against SMU’s aerial attack.

Strengths: BYU’s offense is versatile, capable of both running and passing effectively. Their defense has shown resilience, allowing them to control the game tempo.

Weaknesses: The Cougars need to improve their offensive line play, especially in pass protection, to give Retzlaff time to operate against a formidable defense.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Offense vs. Defense

SMU’s Offense vs. BYU’s Defense: The Mustangs’ high-powered offense will face a solid BYU defense that has shown it can limit scoring. SMU will need to establish the run early to open up passing lanes for Stone, especially against a secondary that has returned all its starters.

BYU’s Offense vs. SMU’s Defense: Conversely, BYU’s balanced attack will test SMU’s defense. Retzlaff’s ability to connect with his receivers, particularly Chase Roberts, will be pivotal. If BYU can exploit any weaknesses in the Mustangs’ secondary, they could find success moving the ball.

Special Teams

Special teams could play a crucial role in this matchup. Both teams have shown potential in their return games, and any mistakes on special teams could shift the momentum in favor of either side.

Key Factors to Watch

Injuries: Monitoring injury reports leading up to the game is essential, as key players missing from either side could significantly impact the outcome.

Weather Conditions: The weather in Dallas is expected to be clear, which is ideal for a high-scoring game. However, any unexpected changes could affect gameplay.

Coaching Strategies: The decisions made by head coaches Rhett Lashlee and Kalani Sitake will be critical. Their ability to adapt to the flow of the game and make necessary adjustments could determine the winner.

Prediction

Score Prediction

After analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances of both teams, the predicted final score is SMU 34, BYU 27. This score reflects the expectation that SMU will leverage their home-field advantage and offensive explosiveness, while BYU will keep it competitive with its strong defense and capable offense.

Reasoning

The key factors leading to this prediction include:

SMU’s offensive firepower has proven effective against weaker opponents.
BYU’s ability to stay competitive, particularly with Retzlaff’s leadership and the defense’s solid performance.
The models suggest that BYU can cover the spread, with predictions indicating a closer game than the 11.5 points suggest.

Why Take BYU +11.5

Considering the models and analysis, taking BYU +11.5 appears to be a wise choice. Here’s how five successful NCAA football prediction models view the game:

Action Network Model: SMU 34, BYU 23 – Pick BYU +11.5
Covers Model: SMU 35, BYU 28 – Pick Under 56.5
RotoWire Model: SMU 31, BYU 20 – Pick BYU +11.5
ESPN FPI Model: SMU 38, BYU 27 – Pick SMU -11.5
S&P+ Model: SMU 42, BYU 27 – Pick Over 55.5

With predictions showing a competitive score, it’s reasonable to believe that BYU can keep the game within the spread. The Cougars have historically performed well against SMU, winning all four previous matchups, including a nail-biting 24-23 victory in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl.

Conclusion

As the Cougars and Mustangs prepare to clash, you can expect an exciting game filled with big plays and strategic battles. Both teams have much to prove, and the outcome could set the tone for the rest of the season. With BYU’s potential to cover the spread, this matchup is not just a game; it’s an opportunity for the Cougars to assert themselves in their new league. So, grab your popcorn and settle in for what promises to be a memorable night of college football!

PICK: BYU +11.5 WIN