The Minnesota Twins look to salvage the series finale against the New York Mets. Both teams have shown resilience, and with playoff implications looming, this matchup carries added weight.
The Mets are favored at home, but both teams are dealing with significant injuries. Here’s how they might affect the AI picks:
- BetQL: Mets (-135) – Adjusted slightly down to Mets -130 due to the Twins’ recent hot streak.
- ESPN: Mets (58% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Mets 56% due to the Mets’ pitching injuries.
- SportsLine: Mets (-1.5) – Adjusted to Mets -1.25 due to the Mets’ pitching injuries.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Mets (-125) – Adjusted slightly down to Mets -120 due to the Twins’ recent hot streak.
- NumberFire (high win %): Mets (56% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Mets 54% due to the Mets’ pitching injuries.
Average Adjusted Pick: Mets (-124) with a 55% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
Both teams are slightly above their win totals based on runs scored and allowed, suggesting a potential close game, aligning somewhat with the Over/Under line. Injuries and pitching matchups might play a bigger role here.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Twins: Jose Miranda’s return is a boost, but they are still missing key players. Their recent wins have shown positive momentum.
- Mets: They are dealing with multiple pitching injuries, but their recent wins have improved their confidence.
Matchup Analysis:
- Twins: Pablo Lopez needs to continue his strong pitching against the Mets’ offense.
- Mets: Luis Severino has shown improvement, and the Mets’ offense has been productive.
Considering All Factors:
- The Twins’ offense is potent, but their pitching depth is tested.
- The Mets’ offense has shown improvement, and Luis Severino has been solid.
Minnesota Twins 3 – New York Mets 4
Reasoning:
- The Mets’ offense might be too much for the Twins’ pitching staff.
- The Twins’ offense could put up a fight, but the Mets’ home-field advantage might be a factor.
- The total score (Over/Under 8.5) leans slightly towards Over due to both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Mets Win Close Interleague Matchup
The AI models favor the Mets (average: Mets -124, 55% win probability), and our analysis leans towards them as well. The Mets’ offense and home-field advantage give them the edge, but the Twins could make it a close game. The total score is likely to be around the Over/Under line.
Pick: Take the New York Mets -105 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
