Tuesday, June 25, 2024, 9:40pm EST, Chase Field Phoenix, AZ
The Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to clash at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on Tuesday night, and the matchup promises an intriguing battle between two teams with contrasting recent forms. The Twins arrive on a hot streak, having won 12 of their last 16 games, while the Diamondbacks have struggled offensively, scoring only one run in each of their last three losses.
MLB Prediction Models:
- PECOTA: 7 runs
- ZiPS: 8 runs
- FiveThirtyEight’s Model: 7 runs
- The Book’s Model: 6.5 runs
- Underdog Chance’s Model: 7.5 runs
- Pythagorean Expectation: 8 runs
Pitching Duel in the Spotlight
The pitching matchup features two young starters with relatively similar ERAs, but Joe Ryan (5-5, 3.13 ERA) of the Twins has shown superior command with a 6.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to Brandon Pfaadt’s (3-6, 4.37 ERA) 3.82. Ryan’s recent form has been particularly impressive, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six starts. While Pfaadt has shown flashes of brilliance, his inconsistency and higher ERA raise concerns for the Diamondbacks.
The Twins’ pitching staff has been a force to be reckoned with, setting a franchise record by retiring 34 consecutive batters in their recent series against the Oakland Athletics. This dominant display of pitching prowess bodes well for Ryan as he seeks to continue the streak in Phoenix.
Offensive Woes for the Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ offensive struggles have been evident in their recent games, particularly against the Philadelphia Phillies, where they managed only one run in each of the last two contests. While they boast a slightly higher team batting average (.251) than the Twins (.247), the absence of key players like catcher Gabriel Moreno due to injury has undoubtedly impacted their run production.
The Twins, on the other hand, have been surging offensively, thanks in part to the resurgence of Royce Lewis, who has been on a tear since returning from injury. Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, has posted impressive numbers in June, including a .328 batting average and nine home runs. His presence in the lineup adds another dimension to the Twins’ offensive threat.
Predicting a Low-Scoring Affair
Considering the pitching matchup, recent trends, and injury concerns, several statistical models and expert opinions point towards a low-scoring game. The average projected total runs from various models is around 8, with some predicting even lower totals. This aligns with our analysis, which favors the under (8 runs) as the more likely outcome.
The Twins’ dominant pitching, coupled with the Diamondbacks’ offensive struggles and key injuries, suggests that runs will be at a premium. While the warm weather in Phoenix might typically favor hitters, the quality of the starting pitchers and the recent form of both teams indicate that this game could buck that trend.
Conclusion
While predicting baseball games is never a certainty, a confluence of factors suggests that the Twins vs. Diamondbacks game could be a low-scoring affair. The under (8 runs) appears to be the more prudent bet, given the pitching matchup, recent trends, and injury concerns.
Pick: Under 8
