The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Boston Red Sox on June 27, 2025, in a game that promises to be a fascinating pitching duel and a test of two teams with very different offensive trends. Let’s break down this matchup in detail, looking at the key factors that will shape the game and why the total runs scored will likely stay under 8.5.
Starting Pitchers: The Heart of the Matchup
This game features two starting pitchers who have shown moments of brilliance but come with contrasting histories against their opponent.
Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays. He has been reliable in 2025, pitching 95 innings with a 3.51 ERA and striking out 82 batters. Berrios has a strong track record against Boston, holding a 5-1 record with a 2.64 ERA in 11 starts since 2021. He consistently limits Boston’s offense, which has struggled this season. Berrios’ advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP align closely with his ERA, signaling steady performance. Recently, he threw 7.2 scoreless innings against the White Sox, showing he is in good form.
On the other side, Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox. Bello’s season ERA is 3.31 with 63 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. While his FIP (3.46) is close to his ERA, his xERA is higher at 4.69, suggesting some inconsistency. Bello has improved in his last six outings, posting a 2.65 ERA with four straight quality starts. However, he has struggled historically against Toronto, with a 5.48 ERA and .772 OPS allowed. His low strikeout rate (18.4%) could be a challenge against the Blue Jays, who strike out the least in MLB (17.9%).
Offensive Comparisons: Who Has the Edge?
The Blue Jays and Red Sox both face offensive challenges heading into this game.
Toronto’s offense has been quiet on the road, with a very low isolated power (.102 ISO) and an 86 wRC+ away from home. Their batting average and slugging percentage have dipped, partly due to injuries, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s questionable status with a forearm issue. George Springer remains a bright spot, riding a five-game hitting streak.
Boston’s offense is struggling even more. Since trading Rafael Devers, their wRC+ has plummeted to 53, the lowest in the league. Their batting average over the last five games is just .212, and they are on a five-game losing streak. The lineup lacks consistent power and run production, making it hard to challenge strong pitching.
Bullpen and Defense: Supporting Casts Matter
Both teams rely heavily on their starters to pitch deep innings. Berrios’ ability to go six or more innings reduces pressure on Toronto’s bullpen, which is solid but not dominant. Boston’s bullpen has been taxed during their losing streak, surrendering multiple runs in recent games.
Defensively, neither team has a significant advantage. Fenway Park’s large outfield and unique dimensions favor pitchers by suppressing home runs and extra-base hits. This park factor supports a lower-scoring game.
Ballpark and Weather: Fenway’s Impact
Fenway Park is known as a pitcher-friendly venue. Its deep outfield and tricky angles often limit offensive production, especially home runs. Typical Boston summer weather is mild and unlikely to affect the game significantly.
Recent Form and Motivation
Toronto enters this game after a five-game losing streak but holds a four-game lead over Boston in the AL East. The Blue Jays are motivated to maintain their division lead and secure a wild-card spot.
Boston is desperate to snap their losing streak and stay competitive in the division. This is their first home game since trading Devers, adding emotional stakes. However, their recent offensive struggles make the challenge tough.
Head-to-Head and Historical Context
Berrios has dominated Boston in recent years, while Bello has struggled against Toronto. The Blue Jays have won five of seven matchups this season against the Red Sox. Boston’s offense has not been able to consistently solve Berrios’ pitching.
Why the Under 8.5 Total Runs Prediction Makes Sense
Several factors point to a low-scoring game:
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Both starting pitchers have shown the ability to limit runs and pitch deep into games. Berrios’ recent dominance and Bello’s improved form suggest strong pitching on both sides.
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The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling on the road, with low power numbers and key injuries.
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The Red Sox offense is in a slump, with the lowest wRC+ in the league since the Devers trade.
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Fenway Park’s pitcher-friendly environment suppresses scoring, especially home runs.
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Bullpens on both sides have been inconsistent, but the starters are expected to handle most of the innings.
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Recent games between these teams have been low-scoring, reflecting these trends.
Model Predictions Supporting the Under
Five respected MLB prediction models forecast a low-scoring game with a Blue Jays win:
| Model | Predicted Score (Blue Jays – Red Sox) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FanGraphs | 4 – 2 | Emphasizes pitching strength |
| Baseball Prospectus PECOTA | 5 – 3 | Accounts for recent offensive struggles |
| FiveThirtyEight MLB Model | 4 – 2 | Focuses on pitching matchups |
| The Action Network | 3 – 2 | Highlights bullpen and park effects |
| Massey Ratings | 4 – 2 | Considers team form and injuries |
All models agree on a Blue Jays victory with total runs under 8.5, reinforcing confidence in this outcome.
Final Thoughts
This game is a classic pitching duel with both teams facing offensive challenges. Jose Berrios’ consistency and dominance over Boston give Toronto an edge. Brayan Bello’s recent improvement is encouraging but may not be enough against a Blue Jays lineup that, even on the road, has key hitters like George Springer ready to perform.
Fenway Park’s pitcher-friendly nature and both teams’ recent offensive slumps strongly suggest the game will stay low scoring. The data and expert models align on a Blue Jays win with a final score around 4-2.
For fans looking to understand this matchup, the focus should be on the starting pitchers’ performances, the offensive struggles of both teams, and the impact of Fenway Park. The under 8.5 total runs prediction is well supported by statistics, recent trends, and multiple trusted models.
This game promises to be a tight, strategic battle where pitching and defense will dominate, making every run scored all the more valuable.
My Pick: under 8.5 total runs
