While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a dominant force for the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, there are a few factors that suggest betting the under on his 27.5-point prop might be a smarter play.
Why Under 27.5 Points?
- Tough Defensive Matchup: The Golden State Warriors, despite their defensive struggles this season, have the personnel to slow down Gilgeous-Alexander. Players like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson can be disruptive defensively and force Gilgeous-Alexander into tough shots.
- Home-Court Advantage: While the Thunder have been impressive at home, the Warriors are a tough team to beat on the road. The hostile environment can impact a player’s performance, especially a high-usage player like Gilgeous-Alexander.
- Regression to the Mean: Gilgeous-Alexander has been on an incredible scoring streak, but it’s reasonable to expect some regression to the mean. As defenses adjust and focus on him, it might be harder for him to consistently score at such a high level.
- Team Dynamics: The Thunder have a deep roster with other talented scorers. While Gilgeous-Alexander is the primary option, the team’s offense can be distributed among multiple players. This could lead to fewer scoring opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Conclusion
While Gilgeous-Alexander is a phenomenal talent, betting the under on his 27.5-point prop offers a solid opportunity for a positive return. By considering factors such as the matchup, home-court advantage, and statistical trends, we can make informed betting decisions and increase our chances of winning.
Pick: Under 27.5 for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
