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Quarterbacks move the odds more than any other position on the roster. Of course, a cluster injury to a particular position can also have an impact. The news will follow. The latter will be a staple of Week 18 and bettors will have to decide whether or not to score points in the playoffs against his one starter on the worst team in the league in his team’s backup.
Rather than play that guessing game, I prefer to focus on quarterback changes and see if I can find an edge based on market reaction. Two of those were exchanges with the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. The commander’s QB carousel finally landed in the future, and rookie Sam Howell made the first move. Meanwhile, Justin Fields sits this one out in Chicago, handing Nathan Peterman a very limited attack.
My approach was to set my sights on the team total market in both games, but I attacked from a different angle.
Sam Howell has a chance to prove he’s a long-term solution, and it’s dangerous for QBs to play with house money. The North Carolina native has the athleticism to buy time against Dallas’ formidable pass rushes, and the commander has the arsenal to be vertical against the Cowboys’ secondary. Past 5 For the week, Dallas ranked 26th and 23rd in dropback success rate and EPA per dropback in litter-free hour conditions. Howell’s determination and aggression are a double-edged sword, producing both impressive drives and bad interceptions, but he puts the ball into the hands of commanding playmakers. In that case, you may take your foot off the gas in the second half.
Washington has value when Wentz isn’t watching the field. In his nine games without Wentz, Washington beat his 16.5 points eight times. I think Howell can look like a rookie at times, but this bet will keep firing until it gets home.
When Chicago announced Nathan Peterman as the starter, we all wanted to undermine him in some way, but to bet on Minnesota’s defense, we had to really get down. Hmm. Sunday’s spending on investing in the Vikings’ defense, which allowed 486 yards to the Jets and 33 points in the half to the Colts, isn’t on anyone’s bucket list. So it makes sense to pivot and bet on the more reliable side of the ball in Minnesota. Given that the Bears are more focused on the future than this game, neither side of the ball can be overly aggressive.
There really is no Chicago offense without Justin Fields. So what impact does a very ineffective Bears offense have? Great field position and scoring chances for the Vikings.
Minnesota needs positive momentum heading into the playoffs, and the Bears seem happy to give it. Chicago has allowed him more than 450 yards per game in the last three weeks, and more importantly, his rush on passes to take advantage of Minnesota’s makeshift offensive line is lacking. The Bears’ 20 sacks in a season is the fewest in the NFL. Cousins will operate in clean pockets and work short fields, so expect to light up the scoreboard on a huge offensive day. Encourage your team to step into the gas.
Statistics provided by teamrankings, rbsdm and football outsiders
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