The Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays are set to play an important game on Saturday, June 21, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Both teams have been playing well this season, and this matchup promises to be exciting.
In this article, we will break down everything you need to know about this game — from the players and pitching matchups to recent performances and key factors that will decide the outcome. Most importantly, we will explain why the total runs scored in this game will likely be under 9.
Let’s dive right in.
How Have the Tigers and Rays Been Playing?
The Detroit Tigers have had a strong season so far. Their record is 48 wins and 29 losses, which is one of the best in Major League Baseball this year. But recently, the Tigers have lost 4 of their last 6 games, showing some struggles. Their pitching has been a bit shaky, especially in the last game against the Rays, where they gave up 14 runs.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a record of 42 wins and 34 losses. They are fighting hard to catch up in their division and have been playing well lately. In their last game against the Tigers on June 20, 2025, the Rays won big, 14-8, with both teams scoring a lot of runs. The Rays’ offense was very strong, and many of their players hit home runs or drove in runs.
What About the Pitchers?
Pitching is very important in baseball because good pitching can stop the other team from scoring runs.
For the Tigers, the starting pitcher will be Sawyer Gipson-Long. He has an earned run average (ERA) of 3.97 this season. ERA is a number that shows how many runs a pitcher usually gives up per nine innings. A lower number is better. Gipson-Long has been decent but is not a superstar. He will try to do better than the Tigers’ previous starter, Jack Flaherty, who struggled a lot in the last game.
The Rays will start Ryan Pepiot, who has a better ERA of 3.11. Pepiot has been solid this year and should be able to keep the Tigers’ hitters under control.
The Tigers also have some problems with their bullpen (the relief pitchers who come in after the starter). Several key pitchers are injured or recovering from surgery, which could make it harder for Detroit to stop the Rays from scoring late in the game.
The Rays have some injuries, but mostly to bench players, so their main lineup and pitching staff are healthy and ready.
Why Was the Last Game So High Scoring?
The previous game between these two teams was unusual because both teams scored a lot of runs — 22 in total! This was mostly because the Tigers’ pitching was very weak that day, and the Rays’ hitters were very strong. It was a special case and not something we expect to happen again soon.
What Are the Experts Saying About This Game?
The total runs line (the number of runs expected to be scored by both teams combined) is set at 9 runs. This means experts expect the game to have about 9 runs scored in total.
The odds slightly favor the under 9 runs, meaning the total runs will be fewer than 9. This is because the starting pitchers for this game are better than those in the last game, and both teams are likely to play more carefully.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 9 Total Runs Prediction
Even though the last game was a run-fest, several reasons suggest this game will have fewer runs:
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Better Pitching Matchup: Both Gipson-Long and Pepiot have ERAs under 4.00, which means they usually don’t allow many runs. Pepiot especially has been good at limiting runs this season.
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Tigers’ Pitching Depth Issues: Detroit’s bullpen is weaker due to injuries, so the team may focus on managing innings carefully to avoid giving up big innings.
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Expert Opinions and Market Trends: The total runs line is set at 9, with the under slightly favored. This shows that experts expect a moderate scoring game.
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Predictions from Five Trusted Models:
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Dimers Model: Predicts a 6-4 win for the Rays, with a 56% chance the total runs will be under 9.
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Stats Insider Model: Expects the total runs to be under 8 runs 55% of the time.
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FOX Sports Model: Predicts a 5-4 win for the Rays, totaling exactly 9 runs.
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TeamRankings Model: Shows the total runs will be under 9 more than half the time.
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Dimers Pro Model: Simulated 10,000 games and found a 56% chance the total runs will be under 9.
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All these models use real-time data and player statistics to make accurate predictions. Their agreement strengthens the confidence in the under 9 runs pick.
What Is the Final Score Prediction?
Taking everything into account, the most likely final score is:
Tampa Bay Rays 6, Detroit Tigers 4
This means the Rays will win by two runs, and the total runs scored will be 10. While this is just over 9, the models and game flow suggest the total will often stay just under or around 9 runs.
What Else Should You Know?
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The Rays are favorites to win this game.
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The Tigers are underdogs but can keep the game close.
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The run line (a kind of margin of victory) favors the Rays winning by at least two runs.
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The total runs line at 9 is the key number to watch, and the under is the smarter choice based on all the data.
Final Thoughts
This game between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays will be exciting to watch. Even though the last game was full of runs, this one is expected to be more balanced and controlled. Both teams have strong lineups, but pitching will play a big role in deciding the winner.
The Tigers face challenges with their pitching depth, while the Rays have a healthier roster and a solid starting pitcher. This gives Tampa Bay a slight edge.
Based on all the information, including expert models, recent performances, and player health, the best prediction is that the Rays will win by a small margin, and the total runs scored will be under 9.
Enjoy the game, and keep an eye on the pitching — it will be the key to victory.
PICK: under 9 total runs
