The stats that define the NFL’s wildcard weekends

In the NFL playoffs, teams are matched as evenly as they are all seasons.

Opponents are looking for a slight advantage, so there are some statistical trends worth watching. Dropped passes, penalty yards, field position gaps, and a 4th quarter surge can all have a big impact on the knock-out results this weekend.

Tom Brady’s 4th Quarter Surge

Brady’s patented comeback is still big. It’s the rest of his game that’s gotten smaller.

His Buccaneers (8-9) overcame a fourth quarter deficit with four wins. Tampa Bay hit back his 13-6 4th quarter deficit and beat the Los Angeles Rams 16-13 in Week 9. Brady overcame his 16-3 deficit and in Week 13 he defeated the New Orleans Saints 17-16. Brady also trailed the Buccaneers 16-6 in overtime in Week 16, Arizona he beat the Cardinals 19-16, and the following week the Carolina he beat the Panthers 30-24. He trailed 21-10. NFC South.

In these comebacks, the Buccaneers trailed by a combined score of 66-22 in the fourth quarter against opponents who ended the season with a losing record. It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

In the first, second and third quarters of regular season games, Brady threw only 12 touchdowns. That’s less than Justin Fields of the Bears and Davis Mills of the Texans (his 13 each), with the team plaguing his 6-27-young quarterback in total. In 1st place, he won the right to pick the top two draft picks in 2023. Brady then threw 13 touchdowns in the fourth quarter, seven of them while trailing in the final four minutes, sometimes (but not always) during heroic comebacks.

Brady’s magic probably won’t be enough to advance the Buccaneers in the playoffs, but his fourth-quarter touchdown knack is why he doesn’t return the ball if his opponent can avoid it.

Dak Prescott interception percentage

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott led the league with 15 interceptions and had the worst interception percentage (3.8%) of any starter during the regular season. In each of his last seven games, he has thrown at least one interception, three of which have been returned for touchdowns.

Prescott is a great quarterback aside from his interception, and it’s not like claiming Sunday dinner was delicious except for salmonella. I was. He often came out of the predicament Houdinis caused, with come-from-behind wins against Houston in Week 14 and Philadelphia in Week 16 against his Eagles.

Prescott also doesn’t get much support from his teammates. For example, his overtime interception against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 was tipped in the air by his own receiver.

A high interception rate doesn’t stop you from winning the Super Bowl. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford said his 17 interceptions in 2021 put him ahead of the NFL, and he threw three more in the postseason. Still, the Cowboys have a long and hilarious history of postseason pitfalls and would do much better if they didn’t give their opponents an easy opportunity. because it leads

Drop passes for Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers

Saturday’s game between the Chargers and Jaguars promises to be a showdown between Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, two of the NFL’s most promising young star quarterbacks. The Jaguars lead the league with 41 dropped passes, while the Chargers rank second with 40 dropped passes, according to the Pro Football Reference.

Zay Jones led the Jaguars with 13 drops, while Christian Kirk dropped seven passes. Marvin Jones and former Giants tight end Evan Engram each added five points. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were injured for most of the year, dropped three passes combined. He has two reliable targets, but Lawrence has none.

San Francisco 49ers average starting position on the field

The 49ers start offensive drives from the 30.9-yard line on average, according to Football Outsiders. This is his best starting field position in the NFL. Opponents, by contrast, are stuck starting their own drives at his 25.6-yard line, the worst starting field position in the league. So the 49ers get a league-best 5.24 yards per series, basically tipping the field in their favor and pulling the enemy back into his own goal line.

The 49ers also led the NFL in sales difference, with 13 more takeaways than giveaways. Their defense often gives rookie quarterback Brock Purdy and his many playmakers the ball within easy hitting distance of the end zone.

The 49ers scored a touchdown on a short drive after a turnover in each of their two regular season wins over the division rival Seattle Seahawks, who will meet again on Saturday. However, even if the Seahawks manage to play turnover-free football, they might find themselves climbing uphill all afternoon.

Minnesota Vikings Penalty Difference

The Minnesota Vikings committed 88 penalties for just 689 yards in the regular season, according to nflpenalties.com. Opponents committed 111 penalties for 926 yards. Their +237 yard penalty difference is the best number in the NFL and contributed to the feeling that the often unimpressive Vikings were winning many games based on sheer luck.

Some of the Vikings’ penalty edges were attributed to the team’s strengths. Opponents, for example, tried desperately to cover receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and for 158 yards he committed 11 defensive his pass interference penalties. Part of the advantage may have come from experience and good coaching. The Vikings committed just 12 offensive holding penalties, his second lowest number in the NFL.

The remaining difference may actually be the result of the team’s claimed stochastic warp superpowers. The opponent was flagged for his league-best six times against his receiver ineligible downfield. This is a truly random violation.

The Giants need to minimize penalties against the Vikings on Sunday.

Average Depth of Daniel Jones Targets

The Giants rely heavily on short passes. A little too heavy. According to his professional football reference, Daniel Jones’ target depth average is his 6.4 yards, placing him 31st among his starting quarterbacks. For comparison, Bills’ Josh Allen averaged 9.2 air yards per target, while Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins ​​(not known as a crazy bomber) averaged 7.5.

All micro passes resulted in the Giants generating only 28 pass plays of 20 yards or more in the regular season, the lowest total in the league.

Despite his lack of big plays, Jones was able to lead the Giants with four comebacks in the fourth quarter. That’s the same number as Brady and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. Unfortunately, Cousins ​​led the Vikings with eight comebacks in the fourth quarter, tying a modern-day record.

So the Giants can’t rely on endgame magic. Instead, they and other teams are hoping some statistical trends will start to reverse this weekend.