The Road Ahead for Arizona: Can They Conquer Detroit’s Den? A Definitive MLB Preview

Baseball fans, get ready for another intriguing matchup as the Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park tonight, July 29, 2025. This series kicked off with the Tigers taking a decisive 5-1 victory yesterday, setting the stage for what promises to be a battle of contrasting forms. Will the Diamondbacks find their stride, or will the Tigers continue their home dominance? Let’s break down all the angles for this evening’s contest.

The air in Detroit is buzzing, but for the visiting Diamondbacks, it’s been a tense few days. They arrive in the Motor City reeling, having scored a measly two runs in their last 38 innings of play. That’s a staggering offensive drought that has left their fans wondering when the bats will awaken. Meanwhile, the Tigers, despite some recent ups and downs, are looking to build on their strong showing yesterday and solidify their position at the top of their division. This game isn’t just about runs and outs; it’s about momentum, resilience, and the relentless pursuit of victory.

The Pitching Duel: A Tale of Two Arms

Tonight’s game features a compelling pitching matchup that will heavily influence the outcome.

For the Arizona Diamondbacks, we have Brandon Pfaadt (10-6, 4.76 ERA). Pfaadt has a respectable win-loss record, but his ERA of 4.76 suggests he can be prone to giving up runs. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, including a recent 7-inning scoreless outing against the Cardinals, his overall consistency has been a question mark. His WHIP (Walks and Hits Per Inning Pitched) of 1.26 is decent, but opposing hitters have found success against him at times.

Taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers is Casey Mize (9-4, 3.40 ERA). Mize boasts a noticeably lower ERA than Pfaadt, indicating his ability to keep opposing lineups in check. His nine wins are a testament to his effectiveness, and his WHIP of 1.28 is also solid. Mize has been a reliable arm for the Tigers this season, and his home performances have often given his team a significant advantage. He aims to continue his strong form and limit the Diamondbacks’ struggling offense.

When we compare these two pitchers, Mize certainly holds the statistical edge. His lower ERA and strong home record make him a formidable presence on the mound. However, baseball is a game of unpredictable moments, and Pfaadt will be eager to shake off his team’s recent struggles and deliver a strong performance.

Analyzing the Offensive Momentum (or Lack Thereof)

The offensive narratives for these two teams couldn’t be more different coming into this game:

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Woes: The biggest story for Arizona is their alarming offensive drought. Reports confirm their offense is in a “downward spiral,” managing to score just two runs in their last 38 innings. This includes being shut out 6-0 by the Pirates just a few days ago. The loss of key players due to injury further compounds this issue. Notably, Eugenio Suarez, a significant power hitter for the Diamondbacks (36 homers this season), was hit on the hand yesterday and is undergoing further tests. While initial X-rays were negative, his ability to perform at full strength tonight is highly questionable, and his absence would be a major blow to an already struggling lineup.

Detroit Tigers’ Streaky Bats: The Tigers’ offense has also had its cold spells this season, particularly in July where their OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) has been among the lowest in the league. They’ve gone 1-8 since the All-Star break, and their games have generally been lower scoring. However, they did “explode” for 10 runs against the Blue Jays on Sunday, demonstrating their potential. Their 5-run performance yesterday against the Diamondbacks also provides a recent boost of confidence.

Considering these factors, the Diamondbacks face a monumental task in generating offense, especially against a steady pitcher like Mize. The Tigers’ offense, while inconsistent, has shown it can produce, particularly at home.

Injuries to Watch

Injuries play a critical role in game outcomes:

• Arizona Diamondbacks: As mentioned, the status of Eugenio Suarez is paramount. While X-rays were negative after being hit on the hand, his effectiveness will be crucial. Gabriel Moreno (finger) is also out until mid-August, and Pavin Smith (oblique) is out until early August, further depleting their offensive firepower.
• Detroit Tigers: The Tigers also have their share of injuries, but perhaps fewer directly impacting their active lineup’s immediate scoring potential compared to the Diamondbacks.

Why I’m Confident in the Under 8.5 Total Runs Prediction

The total for tonight’s game is set at 8.5 runs. Based on all the updated information and analysis, my pick is for the game to stay under 8.5 total runs. Here’s why I’m confident in that outcome:

1. Diamondbacks’ Unprecedented Offensive Slump: This is the most compelling reason. Scoring only two runs in 38 innings is not just a cold streak; it’s a deep-seated problem. Their inability to string hits together, get runners on base, and drive them in has been truly remarkable. Even if Pfaadt gives up a few runs, the Diamondbacks are showing little signs of scoring enough to push the total over. The potential absence or limited effectiveness of Eugenio Suarez only adds to this challenge.
2. Casey Mize’s Solid Performance: Mize has a strong 3.40 ERA. He consistently keeps opposing teams from putting up big numbers. Against a struggling Diamondbacks lineup, Mize is in a prime position to deliver another effective outing, limiting their scoring opportunities.
3. Tigers’ Overall Offensive Inconsistency: While the Tigers did put up 5 runs yesterday, and 10 on Sunday, their overall offensive performance in July has been below average. They are not a team that consistently explodes for high run totals, especially given their recent general slump. Their games have tended to go under the total more often than not recently.
4. Yesterday’s Game as a Precedent: The first game of this series, where the Tigers won 5-1, resulted in a total of 6 runs. This stayed well under the 8.5 mark, providing a recent example of a lower-scoring affair between these two teams.
5. Projected Scores from Leading Models: Various reputable prediction models also lean towards a lower-scoring game, supporting the under 8.5 total:
   • • FanGraphs: 4.0 – 3.1 in favor of Detroit (7.1 total)
     • Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: 3.8 – 3.2 Tigers (7.0 total)
     • FiveThirtyEight: 4.1 – 3.3 Tigers (7.4 total)
     • The Action Network: 4.2 – 3.0 Tigers (7.2 total)
     • Massey Ratings: 4.0 – 2.9 Tigers (6.9 total)

Combining the Diamondbacks’ severe offensive struggles with Casey Mize’s reliable pitching and the general trends for both teams, the “under 8.5 runs” seems like a well-supported outcome for tonight’s game.

What to Look Forward To

Tonight’s game promises to be an engaging battle, not just between two teams, but between an offense desperate to break out and a pitcher determined to shut them down. Fans will be watching closely to see if Brandon Pfaadt can replicate his recent strong start and give his team a chance, and if the Diamondbacks’ bats can finally show some life. On the other side, the Tigers will aim to leverage their home-field advantage and Mize’s strong arm to secure another victory in the series. It’s a game where every hit, every out, and every pitching decision will matter.

Will we see a low-scoring grind, or can one of these offenses defy recent trends? That’s the excitement of baseball, and tonight’s game is set to deliver on that anticipation.

My pick: under 8.5 total runs LOSE