The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals are set to face off on June 5, 2025, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. This matchup promises to be an exciting contest between two teams with similar records—Cardinals at 33-27 and Royals at 32-29. Both teams have shown moments of strength and struggle this season, making this game a compelling one for baseball fans and analysts alike. In this detailed preview, we’ll break down everything you need to know about this game, including pitching matchups, team form, injury updates, and why the total runs scored will likely go over 7.5. We’ll also share predictions from five respected models to help paint a clear picture of what to expect.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (3-4, 3.08 ERA)
Matthew Liberatore has been a key part of the Cardinals’ rotation this season. His 3.08 ERA and 64.1 innings pitched show that he can be effective, but his inconsistency has been a concern. Recently, Liberatore struggled with command, especially with his breaking ball, which led to a rough outing against the Texas Rangers where he gave up five runs in five innings. However, he has shown the ability to adjust during games and bounce back. Against the Royals, Liberatore has limited experience but held them to one run in six innings on May 18, indicating he can handle this lineup.
Kansas City Royals: Cole Ragans (2-3, 4.53 ERA)
Cole Ragans is returning from a left groin injury that sidelined him since mid-May. Before the injury, Ragans showed promise with solid strikeout numbers but struggled with consistency and control, reflected in his 4.53 ERA. His recent rehab start was shaky, allowing five runs in just over three innings. Ragans will need to be sharp to contain the Cardinals’ offense, especially since this game is part of a demanding stretch for both teams. His health and stamina after injury will be critical factors.
Team Form and Context
The Cardinals have been under pressure lately, losing three of their last four games and allowing 29 runs in those losses. Their pitching staff is showing signs of strain, partly due to a packed schedule with 12 games in 11 days, including a doubleheader on this very day. This workload could affect their bullpen availability and overall pitching effectiveness.
The Royals, meanwhile, have been on the rise offensively. They recently broke out with a 10-7 victory over the Cardinals, showcasing a revamped batting order that includes promising young talent like Jac Caglianone. Despite ranking 28th in runs per game with 3.3, their recent surge suggests they are finding ways to score more runs. This offensive momentum could be a key factor in this matchup.
Injury Updates Impacting the Game
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Cole Ragans (Royals): Returning from a groin injury, expected to be active for this game.
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Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals): Fully available but coming off a tough outing.
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Other pitchers on both teams are dealing with various injuries, but no major absences are expected to directly affect this game’s starting rotation.
The return of Ragans adds uncertainty to the Royals’ pitching but also gives them a chance to stabilize their rotation.
Why Expect the Game to Go Over 7.5 Total Runs
Several factors point toward a game with more than 7.5 runs scored:
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Recent Offensive Performance: The Royals have shown an ability to score runs in bunches, including their recent 10-run game against the Cardinals. Their lineup has been energized by new additions and prospects, increasing their run production potential.
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Cardinals’ Pitching Challenges: The Cardinals’ pitching staff has been struggling to contain opponents lately, allowing nearly 30 runs in four games. Liberatore’s recent command issues add to the likelihood of runs scoring.
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Ragans’ Post-Injury Uncertainty: While Ragans has strikeout potential, his recent rehab start showed vulnerability. If he is not fully recovered, the Cardinals’ offense could capitalize.
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Doubleheader Effects: Playing two games in one day often wears down pitching staffs, especially bullpens. This can lead to more scoring opportunities in later innings.
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Ballpark Factors: Busch Stadium is known to be fairly neutral but can favor hitters on good weather days, which is expected.
Predictions from Five Successful Models
To provide a data-driven perspective, here are predictions from five respected models for this game:
| Model Name | Predicted Score (Cardinals-Royals) | Total Runs | Win Probability (Cardinals) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stats Insider | 5 – 4 | 9 | 51% |
| DocSports | 5 – 4 | 9 | Slight Cardinals favorite |
| Action Network | 6 – 4 | 10 | Cardinals favored |
| Parlay’s Pundit | 5 – 4 | 9 | Cardinals favored |
| StatsAlt | 5 – 3 | 8 | Cardinals favored |
All models predict a close game with the Cardinals narrowly winning by one or two runs. Importantly, the total runs predicted range from 8 to 10, supporting the expectation that the game will go over 7.5 total runs.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
This game between the Royals and Cardinals promises to be a closely fought contest with plenty of scoring. The Cardinals have the edge at home and a slightly better pitching staff on paper, but their recent struggles and the Royals’ offensive surge make this matchup unpredictable.
The key to the game will be how well Cole Ragans performs coming off injury and whether Matthew Liberatore can regain control of his pitches. Given the Cardinals’ bullpen strain and the Royals’ energized lineup, scoring is likely to be higher than usual.
Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5, Kansas City Royals 4
Total Runs: 9 (over 7.5)
Why the Over 7.5 Total Runs Is the Smart Choice
The combination of recent team performances, pitching uncertainties, and game context makes the over 7.5 runs a strong expectation for this matchup. The Royals’ offense is heating up, the Cardinals’ pitching has been shaky, and the doubleheader schedule tends to increase scoring chances as pitchers tire.
The predictive models back this up, consistently forecasting totals above 7.5 runs. This means you can expect an engaging game with multiple lead changes and exciting offensive moments.
My pick: over 7.5 total runs WIN
