The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, the tension building with every pitch – that’s what we love about baseball, especially when two competitive teams like the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs square off. After a wild, high-scoring opener where the Mets staged a dramatic comeback, Wednesday’s game at iconic Wrigley Field promises another exciting chapter.
The Mets are battling hard for a Wild Card spot, fueled by their offensive firepower, while the Cubs, despite a recent slump, are looking to solidify their playoff positioning. This isn’t just another regular-season game; it’s a critical clash that could have significant implications for both teams as the season winds down.
So, let’s break down all the angles and see where the smart money is leaning for this pivotal contest.
Game Details: A Snapshot
- Teams: New York Mets (81-76) vs. Chicago Cubs (88-69)
- Date: Wednesday, September 24, 2025
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
- Series Status: Mets lead 1-0
Pitching Duel: A Tale of Two Arms
The heart of any baseball game often comes down to the starting pitchers, and in this matchup, we have a clear contrast.
New York Mets: Jonah Tong (RHP) – (2-2, 5.94 ERA, 16.2 IP)
The Mets are handing the ball to rookie Jonah Tong. In his limited major league appearances this season, Tong has faced challenges. His 5.94 ERA suggests that opposing teams have had success against him. While young pitchers can surprise, his track record so far points to a pitcher who is still finding his footing at this level. Allowing nearly six runs for every nine innings pitched is a stat that often puts pressure on the bullpen and the offense.
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (LHP) – (13-8, 3.20 ERA, 174.1 IP)
On the other side, the Cubs are sending veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd is having a very solid season, boasting an impressive 13-8 record and a strong 3.20 ERA over a substantial number of innings pitched. He’s a seasoned professional who knows how to navigate major league lineups, keep runs off the board, and go deep into games. This significant difference in experience and performance between the two starters is arguably the most crucial factor in this game.
Offensive Firepower: Who Has the Edge?
Both teams possess strong offenses, capable of putting up runs, as evidenced by the high-scoring affair in the first game.
New York Mets Offense:
The Mets’ lineup is loaded with talent. They rank 10th in batting average (.251), 9th in runs scored (748), and are especially dangerous with the long ball, ranking 5th in home runs (218). Players like Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are always threats to change a game with one swing. Their ability to generate offense, particularly with extra-base hits, is a major reason they are contending for a playoff spot.
Chicago Cubs Offense:
The Cubs’ offense is also formidable. They rank 14th in batting average (.249), 8th in runs scored (757), and 8th in home runs (209). While their individual rankings might be slightly lower than the Mets’ in some categories, they are a well-rounded unit that consistently produces. Playing at home in Wrigley Field, where the wind can sometimes carry balls out, they have the potential for big innings.
Defensive Stability and Bullpen Reliability
While offense and starting pitching grab headlines, solid defense and a reliable bullpen are critical for sustained success.
New York Mets Defense and Bullpen:
The Mets’ overall pitching staff ranks 17th in ERA (4.00), indicating that their bullpen has also had its ups and downs. If Jonah Tong struggles early, the Mets will be forced to lean on their relief pitchers, which could be a concern given their overall ERA ranking. Strong defense behind their pitchers is always important to prevent easy runs.
Chicago Cubs Defense and Bullpen:
The Cubs’ pitching staff boasts a better overall ERA, ranking 8th (3.82), which suggests more consistency from their bullpen as well. Having a strong defensive unit behind their pitchers is a hallmark of good teams, and the Cubs are no exception. Their ability to make routine plays and limit errors will be crucial against the Mets’ potent offense.
Current Form and Motivation
New York Mets: The Mets are 81-76 and are riding high after their comeback win. They have immense motivation, as every game is critical in their quest for a Wild Card berth. This urgency can often bring out the best in a team. However, they’ve shown some inconsistency recently, and relying heavily on offense can be a double-edged sword if pitching falters.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are 88-69 and have already clinched a playoff spot, but they are currently on a five-game losing streak. While their playoff spot is secure, they’ll be eager to break this slump and build momentum heading into the postseason. Playing at home, they’ll want to deliver a strong performance for their fans.
Injury Report: Who’s Sidelined?
Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance, especially in pitching depth.
New York Mets Injuries: The Mets have a notable list of injured pitchers, including Tylor Megill (elbow), Griffin Canning (Achilles), Frankie Montas (elbow), and Reed Garrett (elbow). Jesse Winker (back) is also out. These pitching injuries put added strain on their active roster and likely contributed to the decision to start a less experienced pitcher like Tong.
Chicago Cubs Injuries: The Cubs also have some key players sidelined, including pitcher Justin Steele (elbow), but their starting pitching depth appears to be holding up better.
Why I’m Confident in the Cubs -121 Moneyline Prediction
Based on a thorough analysis of all the factors, my pick for this game is the Chicago Cubs to win. The Moneyline of -121 reflects a slight favor for the Cubs, which aligns perfectly with the data. Here’s why I’m confident in this prediction:
- Pitching Advantage is Paramount: The most compelling reason is the stark contrast in starting pitchers. Matthew Boyd is a proven, effective major league starter with a strong ERA and a high number of quality innings under his belt. Jonah Tong, on the other hand, is a rookie still finding his way, with an ERA that indicates struggles. In baseball, a significant pitching mismatch often dictates the outcome.
- Home Field Advantage: Playing at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will have the support of their home crowd, which can provide an emotional lift, especially when trying to break a losing streak.
- Motivation to Break the Slump: While they’ve clinched a playoff spot, no team wants to limp into the postseason on a long losing streak. The Cubs will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and regain confidence.
- Overall Team Balance: While the Mets have a powerful offense, the Cubs’ overall team statistics, especially their stronger team ERA, suggest a more balanced approach that can withstand challenges.
Prediction Model Insights: Supporting the Pick
To further solidify this prediction, let’s look at what some of the leading baseball prediction models are saying. These models utilize sophisticated algorithms and extensive datasets to predict game outcomes.
- FanGraphs: FanGraphs, known for its deep statistical analysis, projects the Cubs to win with a probability indicating a likely victory.
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Information From The Annual) also leans towards the Cubs, forecasting a win for the home team.
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Model: FiveThirtyEight’s sophisticated model, which incorporates a wide range of factors, gives the Cubs a higher win probability in this matchup.
- The Action Network: The Action Network’s analytical tools align with the Cubs as the favored team to take game two of the series.
- Massey Ratings: The Massey Ratings, which use a system of rankings to predict game outcomes, also show the Cubs as the stronger contender for this particular game.
Based on these models, a predicted final score could be:
Predicted Final Score: Cubs 6 – Mets 3
This score reflects the Cubs’ pitching advantage keeping the Mets’ powerful offense somewhat in check, while their own offense does enough against the Mets’ rookie starter.
What to Look Forward To
This game has all the ingredients for another compelling baseball drama. The Mets, desperate for a playoff spot, will fight with everything they have, showcasing their potent offense. The Cubs, eager to snap their losing streak and solidify their postseason seeding, will rely on their ace, Matthew Boyd, to pitch a strong game. Expect intense moments, clutch plays, and perhaps another late-game surge from either side. Regardless of the outcome, it will be a game worth watching as two National League contenders battle it out at historic Wrigley Field. The pitching matchup is the key, and it heavily favors the home team, making the Cubs the strong choice to even the series.
My pick: Cubs -121 moneyline WIN
