The Sunday afternoon rubber match between the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals in Arlington, Texas, presents an intriguing betting opportunity. While the initial reaction might be to lean towards a low-scoring affair given Jacob deGrom’s presence on the mound, a deeper dive into recent performances, offensive trends, and situational factors suggests that betting the Over 7.5 runs is a calculated and smart decision.
Let’s dissect both teams and the context of this game to understand why the runs might flow more freely than anticipated.
The Texas Rangers: Searching for Consistency at the Plate
The reigning World Series champions, the Texas Rangers, have been struggling to find their offensive rhythm this season, particularly in recent weeks. Despite an 11-1 outburst on Friday, they were shut out 2-0 on Saturday and have scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games. This inconsistency is reflected in their season average of 3.32 runs per game, placing them 27th in MLB.
While the Rangers boast formidable hitters like Wyatt Langford (11 HR) and Adolis Garcia (27 RBI), their recent collective performance has been underwhelming. Marcus Semien’s OPS is a paltry .528, and Adolis Garcia is hitting just .190 in his last 15 games. Josh Jung has a .629 OPS in that same span. Corey Seager, a key offensive force, is still shaking off an injury, which places added pressure on the rest of the lineup.
However, it’s crucial to consider the law of averages and the nature of baseball. Elite offenses, even when slumping, rarely stay dormant for extended periods. Friday’s 11-run explosion, sandwiched between two low-scoring contests, is a reminder of their latent firepower. Furthermore, the Rangers have a .240 AVG against right-handed pitching, suggesting they are capable of making contact, even if it hasn’t translated into consistent run production recently. This game, being a rubber match, adds an element of urgency that can often spark a team’s offense.
The St. Louis Cardinals: Contact Over Power
The St. Louis Cardinals, currently sitting at 31-24 and 3.0 games back in the NL Central, have a more contact-oriented approach at the plate. They rank 7th in MLB in runs per game (4.69) but have shown some recent regression, ranking 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ since May 10th. Their offensive strategy leads to a low strikeout rate (21% K-rate in the last three weeks) but also a low isolated power (.140) and an alarming 29th ranking in walk rate (6.4%). This suggests they rely heavily on getting hits and putting the ball in play, which can be feast or famine.
Key players like Brendan Donovan (.329 AVG) and Willson Contreras (30 RBI) are anchors in their lineup. While they managed just five hits in Saturday’s 2-0 win, it was enough to get the job done. The Cardinals’ ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts could be a factor against deGrom, who, despite his brilliance, has shown a recent tendency to issue walks.
The Pitching Matchup: A Tale of Two Recent Trajectories
The pitching matchup pits two right-handers against each other: Jacob deGrom for the Rangers and Erick Fedde for the Cardinals.
Jacob deGrom (TEX): The Ace Facing a Crossroads?
DeGrom’s season numbers (4-2, 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) are undeniably elite. However, his recent outings have raised some eyebrows. He has a no-decision and a loss in his last two starts, including a 2-1 defeat to Toronto where he allowed two runs on two hits (one a home run) in 5 1/3 innings, walked two, and, for the first time in his 228-start career, didn’t record a strikeout. DeGrom himself admitted to “fighting myself a bit” and not being “very efficient,” particularly with his fastball location.
While deGrom’s Stuff+ and Location+ numbers are still strong (107 and 115 respectively), his 3.68 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a bit higher than his ERA suggests, indicating that his underlying performance might not be quite as dominant as his ERA implies. His 8.81 K/9 is lower than his career norms, and his 1.97 BB/9 is his highest since 2017. These trends, even subtle, could be exploited by a contact-oriented team like the Cardinals, especially if deGrom continues to struggle with command.
Against St. Louis in his career (all with the Mets), deGrom is 4-2 with a 3.95 ERA in seven starts, surrendering 19 runs on 50 hits and six walks in 43 1/3 innings. He hasn’t beaten the Cardinals since 2018. This historical context, combined with his recent struggles with efficiency and walks, suggests that the Cardinals, known for putting the ball in play, could find ways to scratch across runs.
Erick Fedde (STL): The Enigma
Erick Fedde (3-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) presents a more volatile picture. He hasn’t recorded a win in his last three starts, including two no-decisions and a loss where he allowed five runs (three earned) on seven hits. His 5.21 xERA (Expected ERA) and 4.43 FIP are significantly higher than his ERA, indicating he might be due for some negative regression. While he spun a 10-0 shutout against Washington earlier in May, his recent trend has been less impressive.
Fedde’s background, including a year in the Korean Baseball Organization and a successful stint with the White Sox before being traded to St. Louis, speaks to his resilience. However, his current statistical profile suggests he’s more prone to giving up runs than his ERA indicates. The Rangers, despite their recent offensive slump, still possess the talent to capitalize on a pitcher who might be overperforming his underlying metrics.
Situational Factors and Betting Trends:
- Globe Life Field: The Rangers’ home ballpark, Globe Life Field, is a retractable-roof stadium. While designed for comfort, it can play as a relatively neutral park in terms of run-scoring. With the roof closed, it’s less affected by external weather conditions.
- Recent Series History: The Cardinals and Rangers have traded blowouts and shutouts in this series, highlighting the unpredictable nature of these two offenses. The 11-1 Rangers victory on Friday underscores their ability to erupt, while the 2-0 Cardinals win on Saturday shows that even limited offense can be enough.
- Over/Under Trends: While the overall trend for Rangers home games has leaned towards the Under (24-7), and some experts are picking the Under in this game, the context of this specific matchup and the pitchers’ recent form suggest a different story. The Cardinals have an overall Over record of 30-24-3 (55.6% to the Over), indicating their games tend to go over the total more often than not.
- Bullpen Performance: Both bullpens will likely play a role. The Rangers have a solid bullpen ERA of 3.77 (17th in MLB), while the Cardinals’ bullpen sits at 3.94 (15th in MLB). While not top-tier, these are not abysmal numbers, but any middle-to-late inning struggles could easily push the game over the total.
Why Over 7.5 is the Smart Play:
- DeGrom’s Recent Vulnerabilities: While deGrom is an ace, his last two outings have shown some cracks in his armor, particularly with walks and less efficient pitching. The Cardinals’ contact-heavy approach could extend at-bats and drive up his pitch count, forcing him out of the game earlier than usual.
- Fedde’s Regression Potential: Fedde’s FIP and xERA suggest he’s due for some negative regression. The Rangers’ high-upside offense, even if currently slumping, has the power to inflict damage when a pitcher isn’t at his best.
- Rangers’ Offensive Upside: Despite recent struggles, the Rangers’ lineup is too talented to be consistently shut down. A rubber game often brings out a more focused and determined offensive effort. They are capable of scoring in bunches, as evidenced by Friday’s game.
- Cardinals’ Contact-First Approach: The Cardinals will put the ball in play. Even if deGrom is dominant, a few well-placed hits, especially if he struggles with command, could lead to runs. Against the Rangers’ bullpen, their contact approach could also pay dividends.
- Park Factor: Globe Life Field is not a pitcher’s park that consistently suppresses runs. While not a hitter’s haven, it allows for plenty of offense, especially with the roof closed.
- Situational Urgency: Both teams want to win this series. This urgency can translate into more aggressive at-bats and a willingness to take chances, which can lead to more scoring opportunities.
Conclusion: Trusting the Total to Climb
While the allure of Jacob deGrom’s name might tempt bettors to lean towards the Under, a comprehensive analysis points to the Over 7.5 runs as the more favorable wager. DeGrom’s recent dip in efficiency and command, coupled with Erick Fedde’s underlying metrics suggesting regression, creates a favorable environment for offense. The Rangers’ potent, albeit inconsistent, lineup is due for a breakout, and the Cardinals’ contact-heavy approach can exploit any command issues. In a rubber match where both teams are motivated to close out the series with a win, expect runs to be scored.
Pick: Over 7.5
