The Battle for Bragging Rights: California Baptist’s High-Scoring Threat Faces SDSU’s Defensive Wall

Date: Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Time: 11:00 PM ET

Arena: Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl San Diego, CA

An exciting matchup is on the horizon as the California Baptist Lancers travel to face the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena in San Diego. This game is set for December 11, 2024, and promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams with contrasting styles and aspirations. With the Lancers looking to prove themselves against a ranked opponent and the Aztecs aiming to solidify their standing, this game has all the makings of a classic showdown.

Current Form: Who’s Hot?

California Baptist Lancers

The Lancers come into this game with a record of 5-4, but their recent performances have been a mixed bag. They started the season strong, but inconsistencies have crept in. Their most recent outing was a disappointing loss to UCF, where they struggled offensively, scoring only 59 points. The standout player for California Baptist has been Dominique Daniels Jr., who is averaging an impressive 21.7 points per game. His ability to score from anywhere on the court makes him a constant threat, but he’ll need help from his teammates to keep pace with the Aztecs.

San Diego State Aztecs

On the flip side, the Aztecs are riding high with a record of 6-2 and are currently ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25. They’ve been on a roll lately, winning four of their last five games, including notable victories over ranked opponents. Their last game saw them dominate San Diego with a solid 74-57 win, showcasing their depth and defensive prowess. Key players like Nick Boyd, who leads the team with 12.6 points per game, and Magoon Gwath, a rising star in the paint, have been instrumental in their success.

Key Statistics: Breaking It Down

When we dive into the numbers, it’s clear that both teams have distinct strengths and weaknesses.

Offensive Efficiency

• California Baptist: The Lancers average about 73 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of around 48%. However, they struggle with turnovers, averaging about 18 per game.
• San Diego State: The Aztecs score approximately 76 points per game and boast an effective field goal percentage of around 53%. Their ability to control possessions is evident in their lower turnover rate of about 15%.

Defensive Efficiency

• California Baptist: Defensively, they allow around 75 points per game, which is concerning when facing a potent offense like SDSU’s.
• San Diego State: SDSU excels defensively, allowing just 64 points per game. They are particularly effective at forcing turnovers and limiting second-chance opportunities.

Rebounding

• California Baptist: The Lancers have a rebounding percentage of about 34%, which puts them at a disadvantage against stronger rebounding teams.
• San Diego State: The Aztecs dominate the boards with a rebounding percentage of approximately 38%, giving them more opportunities for second-chance points.

Notable Injuries: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

Injuries can always change the dynamics of a game. Fortunately for San Diego State, they appear to be relatively healthy heading into this matchup. Magoon Gwath’s recent performance was affected by fatigue from a hard fall in an earlier game, but he is expected to play.

On the other hand, California Baptist has not reported any significant injuries that would impact their rotation severely; however, any minor injuries could affect their depth against a well-rounded SDSU team.

Why Pick Over 136 Total Points?

Now let’s talk about why betting on the over for this matchup makes sense. With the total set at 136 points, there’s plenty of room for both teams to exceed that mark based on several factors:

1. Scoring Potential: Both teams have shown they can score efficiently when they find their rhythm. SDSU’s offensive capabilities combined with California Baptist’s reliance on Daniels to score will likely lead to an uptick in scoring.
2. Defensive Vulnerabilities: While San Diego State has a strong defense, California Baptist’s ability to score in bursts means they could put up enough points to push this total over.
3. Pace of Play: SDSU prefers a moderate pace that allows them to work through their offensive sets efficiently while also pushing when opportunities arise. California Baptist tends to play faster when needed, especially when trying to keep up with stronger opponents.
4. Prediction Models Support: Let’s take a look at what five respected NCAA basketball prediction models suggest for this matchup:
   • KenPom: Projects SDSU scoring around 79 points and California Baptist at about 66 points (Total: 145).
   • Sagarin Ratings: Suggests SDSU at 78 and California Baptist at 67 (Total: 145).
   • Bart Torvik: Predicts SDSU at 80 and California Baptist at 65 (Total: 145).
   • Haslametrics: Estimates SDSU at 77 and California Baptist at 68 (Total: 145).
   • BPI (Basketball Power Index): Projects SDSU at 79 and California Baptist at 66 (Total: 145).

All these models consistently predict totals well above the set line of 136 points.

Predicted Scores

Based on our analysis and predictions from various models:

• San Diego State Aztecs: 79
• California Baptist Lancers: 66

This prediction supports our recommendation for taking the over on total points scored in this matchup.

Conclusion

As we gear up for this exciting clash between California Baptist and San Diego State, it’s clear that both teams bring unique strengths to the court. With SDSU’s solid form and home-court advantage against a struggling but capable Lancers squad, fans can expect an engaging battle filled with scoring opportunities.

Betting on the over seems smart, given both teams’ scoring potential and recent performances. So settle in for what promises to be an electrifying night of college basketball.

PICK: over 136 total points