The TaxAct Texas Bowl in Houston, Texas, promises a fascinating clash between the Texas A&M Aggies, reeling from a string of injuries, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys, hungry for a strong finish to their season. Let’s delve into the data, analyze the injury crisis, and uncover the most informed picks for this December 27th showdown.
Model Consensus:
The AI models are divided, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the Aggies’ health:
- BettingPros Consensus: Oklahoma State -2
- ESPN FPI: Oklahoma State 59.6% win probability
- CBS Sports: Texas A&M 55% win probability
- Sports Illustrated: Oklahoma State 58.5% win probability
- BetQL: Oklahoma State -2, Over 53
- SportsLine: Oklahoma State -2, Under 53
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:
Applying the Pythagorean theorem, Texas A&M’s 7-5 record translates to a predicted 24.7 wins with 7.3 losses based on their 446 points scored and 316 points allowed. Oklahoma State’s 9-4 record translates to a predicted 27.5 wins with 4.5 losses based on their 485 points scored and 245 points allowed. This suggests a potentially strong offense for the Cowboys, with the Aggies’ defense holding its own.
However, strength of schedule paints a slightly different picture. Texas A&M faced the 121st toughest schedule compared to Oklahoma State’s 119th. This suggests that Oklahoma State’s wins might be slightly inflated due to a slightly easier route throughout the season.
Injury Report and Weather:
The Aggies face an unprecedented injury crisis: quarterback Raymond Cottrell, running back Ainias Smith, quarterbacks Max Johnson and Evan Stewart, defensive lineman Enai White, and tight ends Conner Weigman and Donovan Green are all out. Finn Dirstine’s status is also uncertain. These absences cripple their offense, rushing attack, passing game, and defense. Oklahoma State has its share of injuries as well, with receiver Talyn Shettron, linebacker Elijah Collins, offensive lineman Justin Wright, and defensive back De’Zhaun Stribling sidelined.
The weather in Houston on December 27th is expected to be pleasant with clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees Fahrenheit. This shouldn’t significantly impact the game’s pace or style.
Personal Prediction:
This game hinges on Texas A&M’s ability to overcome their numerous injuries. While Oklahoma State’s own injuries are impactful, the Aggies’ losses are particularly devastating to their core offensive and defensive units. Their recent struggles and depleted roster make it difficult to predict a strong performance.
- Oklahoma State -2 (spread): Given the Aggies’ significant injuries and recent lose, Oklahoma State offers more value at -2, especially with their solid offensive showing throughout the season.
- Under 53 (total): The Aggies’ offensive capabilities are severely handicapped by the injuries, potentially leading to a lower-scoring affair than predicted by some models. Conversely, Oklahoma State’s offense might struggle against the still-formidable Aggies’ defense.
Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys -2 points. ***WINNER***
Enjoy the TaxAct Texas Bowl and witness the battle between the injury-hit Texas A&M Aggies and the resilient Oklahoma State Cowboys in Houston!
