The Arizona Wildcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers are set for an exciting NCAA Men’s Basketball showdown. This matchup promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams that bring different play styles to the court. Both teams have been on impressive runs lately, but as they prepare for the season’s second meeting, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Date: Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV
From their early-season clash at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, where West Virginia narrowly defeated Arizona 83-76 in overtime, a lot has changed. Arizona has had its ups and downs, falling out of the AP Top 25 rankings, while West Virginia has thrived, earning a spot in the rankings for the first time since 2022.
The question on everyone’s mind: Who’s going to take the win this time? Let’s dive into the key aspects of the game, analyze both teams’ current form, and their key statistics, and make a prediction on the best way to bet on this exciting encounter.
Arizona Wildcats: Striving for Consistency
Arizona’s recent form has been a mixed bag. The Wildcats have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled to find consistency, especially against top-tier teams. With a record of 8-5, Arizona has been on a 4-game winning streak, which included a solid victory over No. 16 Cincinnati in their last game, a 72-67 win on January 4th, 2025. This win was crucial in restoring confidence in the Wildcats, especially with Caleb Love, their top scorer, having an off-night, making only 3 of 15 field goals. However, Carter Bryant’s breakout performance, scoring a career-high 14 points, was a positive sign for the Wildcats’ depth.
Despite the win, Arizona’s scoring inconsistency remains a concern. While they have offensive firepower with players like Caleb Love, they need better performances from their role players and bench to remain competitive against higher-ranked teams like West Virginia. Arizona’s strength lies in their fast-paced offense, but they must execute better to beat top-notch defenses like West Virginia’s.
West Virginia Mountaineers: Defensive Powerhouse with Momentum
On the other hand, West Virginia (11-2) enters this game on a 7-game winning streak. The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-61 road win over No. 7 Kansas on New Year’s Eve and a dominant 69-50 victory against Oklahoma State. This win streak has propelled West Virginia back into the rankings, and they now sit comfortably at No. 21 in the country.
A major reason for West Virginia’s recent success is its defense. The Mountaineers are one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12, allowing only 62.5 points per game. They’ve consistently shut down opponents with tough perimeter defense, ranking first in 3-point defense at 27.4% and second in field goal defense at 37.1%. Their ability to clamp down on shooters is a huge advantage and could be a significant factor against Arizona’s high-scoring attack.
In Javon Small, the Mountaineers have a scoring leader who is averaging 19.5 points per game, and he’s been playing with an exceptional level of confidence. West Virginia’s success this season has been built on a balanced offense and lock-down defense, making them a formidable opponent for any team, including Arizona.
Key Stats to Consider for Both Teams
- Arizona Wildcats Offensive Stats:
- Points per game: 74.8
- Field goal percentage: 44.8%
- 3-point shooting: 34.1%
- Turnover rate: 14.2 per game
- West Virginia Mountaineers Offensive Stats:
- Points per game: 73.6
- Field goal percentage: 43.5%
- 3-point shooting: 31.4%
- Turnover rate: 12.6 per game
- Arizona Wildcats Defensive Stats:
- Points allowed per game: 70.2
- Field goal defense: 42.4%
- 3-point defense: 30.2%
- West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Stats:
- Points allowed per game: 62.5
- Field goal defense: 37.1%
- 3-point defense: 27.4%
Notable Injuries and Absences
One significant factor to consider is the absence of Tucker DeVries for West Virginia, who played a crucial role in their first victory over Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis by scoring 26 points. DeVries has missed the last five games with an upper-body injury, and his absence has certainly affected the team, though they’ve still managed to win without him. His potential return could add depth to their already strong roster, but as of now, West Virginia’s current success has been built without him.
On the Arizona side, the Wildcats are relatively healthy, with Caleb Love being the key player to watch. If Love can return to his usual high-scoring self, Arizona will have a better chance of keeping up with West Virginia’s defense.
Why I’m Picking the UNDER 143.5 Total Points
After analyzing the game in-depth and considering all the factors at play, I’m confident that the UNDER 143.5 total points is the safer pick for this matchup. Here’s why:
- West Virginia’s Defensive Strength: West Virginia’s defense has been suffocating, and they rank near the top in key defensive categories like field goal defense and 3-point defense. They will look to limit Arizona’s offensive efficiency, particularly on the perimeter where Arizona has been most dangerous.
- Pace of Play: Both teams tend to play a more deliberate style of basketball, especially West Virginia, who will likely slow the game down to prevent Arizona from running fast breaks. With fewer possessions, it’s harder to rack up high-point totals.
- Arizona’s Offensive Inconsistencies: While Arizona can score, their offensive efficiency has been inconsistent, especially against elite defenses like West Virginia’s. Arizona’s high turnover rate (14.2 per game) could lead to missed opportunities, resulting in fewer points.
- Historical Trends: In their last matchup, the total points were 159, but the nature of that game (an overtime contest) was an anomaly. Since both teams have tightened their defenses, the total will likely stay closer to the 140-145 range, which favors the UNDER.
Prediction Models and Final Score Estimates
Here’s what five respected NCAA prediction models project for this game:
- KenPom: Arizona 71, West Virginia 70 (Total = 141)
- Sagarin: Arizona 73, West Virginia 69 (Total = 142)
- Torvik: Arizona 70, West Virginia 68 (Total = 138)
- Haslametrics: Arizona 72, West Virginia 70 (Total = 142)
- Bart Torvik: Arizona 71, West Virginia 69 (Total = 140)
These models consistently predict a score around 71-69, keeping the total points under 143.5, and reinforcing the idea that the UNDER is the safer bet.
Final Thoughts: Why the UNDER is the Smart Play
To wrap things up, the UNDER 143.5 is a strong pick based on several key factors:
- West Virginia’s defensive prowess will stifle Arizona’s offense.
- The game’s slower pace and deliberate style will result in fewer possessions and scoring opportunities.
- Arizona’s offensive inconsistencies against top defenses will likely keep them from reaching their usual high-scoring potential.
Given these considerations and the predictions from respected models, the UNDER is the optimal choice for this game. Both teams are solid defensively, and with the absence of Tucker DeVries, West Virginia may find it harder to put up big numbers, despite their strong play.
PICK: Under 143.5 total points WIN
