The Sun Belt Conference Tournament semifinal on March 9, 2025, at the Pensacola Bay Center features a compelling matchup between the Troy Trojans (21-10) and the James Madison Dukes (20-11). Both teams have showcased their strengths throughout the season, setting the stage for an intense battle.
Team Overviews
Troy enters the game on a four-game winning streak, having recently defeated Old Dominion 75-59 in the quarterfinals. The Trojans have been impressive defensively, allowing just 65.3 points per game, which ranks them 28th nationally. Offensively, they average 73 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field. However, their three-point shooting has been subpar, connecting on only 29.9% of attempts.
James Madison, on the other hand, secured a bye to the semifinals after finishing the regular season with a 13-5 conference record, tied atop the Sun Belt standings. The Dukes average 74.4 points per game on 44.3% shooting, including a respectable 34.9% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they allow 70.3 points per game, with opponents shooting 43.7% from the field.
Coaching Analysis
Troy’s head coach, Scott Cross, has been at the helm since 2019 and has instilled a defensive-minded approach in his team. His experience includes a successful tenure at UT Arlington, where he led the program to multiple 20-win seasons. Cross is known for his ability to make in-game adjustments, particularly on the defensive end.
James Madison is led by first-year head coach Preston Spradlin, who previously served as the head coach at Morehead State. Spradlin has quickly implemented an up-tempo offensive system, emphasizing ball movement and perimeter shooting. His adaptability and fresh perspective have been pivotal in the Dukes’ successful season.
Home Court Advantage
The neutral-site setting in Pensacola minimizes traditional home-court advantages. However, both teams have performed well in neutral venues this season. Troy has demonstrated resilience away from home, while James Madison’s fan base is known for traveling well, potentially providing a slight edge in crowd support.
Tempo
Troy prefers a moderate pace, focusing on defensive sets and half-court offense, leading to lower-scoring games. James Madison, conversely, thrives in an up-tempo style, pushing the ball in transition to capitalize on quick scoring opportunities. The contrasting tempos will be a critical factor, with the game’s flow likely influencing the outcome.
Three-Point Shooting
James Madison holds an advantage in three-point shooting, averaging 34.9% compared to Troy’s 29.9%. The Dukes’ ability to stretch the floor could challenge Troy’s perimeter defense. However, if Troy can disrupt James Madison’s rhythm beyond the arc, it could neutralize this advantage.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams have faced competitive schedules within the Sun Belt Conference. James Madison’s non-conference slate included several challenging opponents, providing them with experience against high-caliber teams. Troy’s schedule has been balanced, offering a mix of tests that have prepared them for tournament play.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom ratings, Troy boasts a defensive efficiency of 101.6, while James Madison’s offensive efficiency stands at 113. This suggests a classic offense-versus-defense matchup, with Troy’s ability to limit James Madison’s scoring being a focal point.
Historical Matchups
In their lone regular-season meeting, James Madison edged out Troy 64-61 at home. The game was tightly contested, with both teams displaying their respective strengths. This history indicates a potential for another close encounter.
Conference Implications
A victory propels the winner to the Sun Belt Championship game, with significant implications for NCAA Tournament aspirations. Both teams are vying for an automatic bid, adding intensity to this semifinal clash.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of the latest reports, Troy is favored by 1.5 points, with a moneyline of -122, while James Madison stands at +102. The total for the game is set at 131.5 points. Betting trends indicate a slight lean towards Troy, reflecting public confidence in their recent form and defensive capabilities.
Situational Factors
James Madison’s extended rest due to the bye could result in either fresh legs or potential rust. Troy’s momentum from recent victories may provide them with a psychological edge, having already acclimated to the tournament environment.
Prediction Models
Aggregating projections from reputable sources:
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KenPom: Predicts a narrow victory for James Madison, considering their offensive efficiency.
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Sagarin Ratings: Slightly favors Troy, emphasizing their defensive metrics.
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Torvik: Projects a close game, with a marginal edge to James Madison.
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Haslametrics: Indicates a toss-up, highlighting the contrasting styles.
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Bart Torvik: Leans towards Troy, factoring in recent performance trends.
Predicted Final Score
Troy Trojans 68, James Madison Dukes 66
Confidence Level
Medium
Recommended Bet
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Spread: Troy -1.5
Troy’s recent defensive performances and momentum suggest they can cover the modest spread.
Total: Under 131.5
Given Troy’s defensive prowess
Total: Under 131.5
Given Troy’s defensive prowess and tendency to control tempo, combined with James Madison’s slight inconsistencies against more physical defenses, this game projects as a slower-paced, grind-it-out semifinal. Troy has held opponents to just 63.3 points per game over their last 10, and their ability to limit transition opportunities should keep James Madison from finding their rhythm early. With both teams expected to lock in defensively under tournament pressure, the Under has strong value, particularly since the last time these teams met the combined score was just 125 (64–61).
Player Props and Alternative Lines
Although official player prop markets may be limited in Sun Belt tournament games, there are a few key players to watch based on recent form:
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Tayton Conerway (Troy) – Over 12.5 points. He’s averaging 13.6 recently and is often the late-clock scoring option for the Trojans. With a deliberate pace and more half-court possessions, Conerway should get enough usage to hit this mark.
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Thomas Dowd (Troy) – Over 6.5 rebounds. Dowd has been a force on the boards and matches up well against a James Madison frontcourt that averages just 33.5 rebounds per game. With Troy ranking 8th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, second-chance opportunities will likely funnel through Dowd.
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Alt Total Under 129.5 (+ value) – For those seeking a bit more plus-money value, an alternate under on the total may be worth considering given the style of play and potential for extended half-court sets.
Key Mismatches and X-Factors
Several key mismatches and tactical factors could swing this contest:
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Rebounding Battle – Troy’s dominance on the glass (38.5 rebounds per game) against James Madison’s subpar 33.5 could lead to critical second-chance points and fewer possessions for the Dukes. If the Trojans control the boards, they’ll control the pace.
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Three-Point Defense – Troy’s perimeter defense has been solid, holding teams to 31.2% from three. James Madison relies on nearly nine made threes per game, so if the Trojans can chase shooters off the line or force contested jumpers, they’ll neutralize a major scoring component for the Dukes.
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Coaching and In-Game Adjustments – Scott Cross’s experience in the Sun Belt and reputation for halftime adjustments could be pivotal. He’s shown an ability to clamp down on opposing stars and tailor second-half defensive schemes, which could swing a tight game.
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Tournament Environment – While James Madison comes in with fresher legs due to a bye, Troy may benefit from playing consistently in this venue already. They’re already acclimated to the court and sight lines at Pensacola Bay Center, and momentum in March matters. Confidence and rhythm could outweigh rest.
Final Thoughts
This is a classic “defense vs offense” semifinal matchup where styles will clash — and likely grind. Troy has been more battle-tested in recent weeks and comes in with strong form, elite rebounding, and one of the stingiest defenses in the mid-major world. James Madison has the scoring upside and perimeter shooting to break open the game if they get hot early, but they’ve been prone to scoring droughts when matched up against physical, disciplined defenses — exactly the type Troy deploys.
The winner of this game likely becomes the Sun Belt favorite heading into the final and may secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament with the title. Motivation, preparation, and execution will be paramount, and Troy’s ability to impose their style on this game could be the deciding factor.
🔒 Official Prediction:
Troy Trojans 68, James Madison Dukes 66
✅ Recommended Bets:
- Troy -1.5
- Under 131.5 Total Points
- Player Prop: Tayton Conerway Over 12.5 Points (if available)
- Alternative Line: Under 129.5 (+ odds)
🔍 Confidence Level: Medium
While both teams are peaking at the right time, the Trojans’ rebounding advantage and elite defense give them a slight edge in a low-scoring, physical game. Watch for a nail-biter that comes down to the final possession — March basketball at its best.
