The Stanford Cardinal (19-10, 11-7 ACC) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-17, 6-12 ACC) square off at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana, tonight. With Stanford entering as a slight road favorite (-130 moneyline, -1.5 spread), this game offers intriguing matchups and significant implications for both teams as the regular season winds down.
Team Overview and Key Metrics
Stanford Cardinal
- Record: 19-10 overall, 11-7 in ACC play
- Recent Form: 6-4 in their last ten games
- Offensive Stats: Averaging 74.3 points per game on 43.8% field goal shooting
- Defensive Stats: Allowing 70.9 points per game, holding opponents to 44.8% shooting
- Key Player: Maxime Raynaud leads the team with 20.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Record: 12-17 overall, 6-12 in ACC play
- Recent Form: 3-7 in their last ten games
- Offensive Stats: Averaging 73.0 points per game on an efficient 45.8% shooting
- Defensive Stats: Allowing 72.3 points per game, with opponents shooting 45.4%
- Key Player: Markus Burton is the standout performer, averaging 21.1 points and 3.1 assists per game.
Both teams have struggled with turnovers—Stanford averages 10.1 per game compared to Notre Dame’s slightly higher 10.4—but rebounding is nearly identical at around 31 boards per game.
Injury Report
Stanford will be without Evan Stinson (leg), Derin Saran (lower body), and Donavin Young (lower leg). Notre Dame is missing Matt Allocco (wrist) and Braeden Shrewsberry (abdomen). These absences could impact depth and rotations, particularly for Stanford’s backcourt.
Advanced Metrics and Style of Play
Tempo
Stanford prefers a slightly more methodical pace, focusing on half-court sets and defensive structure, while Notre Dame plays faster, leveraging their efficient shooting to generate quick scoring opportunities. The contrasting tempos could dictate the flow of the game.
Three-Point Shooting
Stanford averages 8.1 made three-pointers per game on a modest 33.5% efficiency, while Notre Dame hits fewer threes but at a higher clip (35%). Perimeter defense will be critical for both teams to avoid giving up easy points from beyond the arc.
Strength of Schedule
Stanford has faced tougher opponents overall, reflected in their stronger conference record and advanced metrics like KenPom ratings. Notre Dame’s inconsistency against quality teams has been a recurring issue this season.
Coaching Matchup
Stanford’s Kyle Smith emphasizes disciplined defense and efficient ball movement but has struggled with in-game adjustments during road games this season (evidenced by three consecutive road losses). Notre Dame’s Micah Shrewsberry has shown creativity in offensive schemes but has faced challenges containing high-scoring opponents.
Home Court Advantage
Purcell Pavilion provides a strong home-court advantage for Notre Dame, though their home record this season has been underwhelming compared to past years. The crowd could still play a role in energizing the Irish against a Stanford team that has struggled on the road.
Historical Matchups
The teams last met earlier this season, with Notre Dame routing Stanford by an astonishing 96-47 margin—the largest loss in Stanford’s program history. While that result may not be fully indicative of tonight’s matchup, it highlights potential mismatches that Notre Dame could exploit again.
Betting Analysis
Predicted Final Score
Stanford: 72
Notre Dame: 68
This projection is based on Stanford’s slight edge in defensive consistency and offensive efficiency metrics, despite playing on the road.
Confidence Level: Medium
While Stanford holds statistical advantages, their road struggles and Notre Dame’s ability to perform well at home introduce uncertainty.
Recommended Bet Type: Spread (-1.5 Stanford)
Stanford’s ability to control tempo and execute defensively gives them a slight edge to cover the narrow spread. However, bettors should proceed cautiously given the volatility of both teams’ recent performances.
Total Points: Under 141.5
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities but are unlikely to sustain high-scoring outputs given their pace of play and recent form.
Player Props
- Maxime Raynaud Over 18.5 Points: Raynaud has been consistent offensively and faces a Notre Dame defense that struggles against versatile big men.
- Markus Burton Over 20 Points: Burton is Notre Dame’s primary scorer and will likely shoulder a heavy offensive load tonight.
Key Factors to Watch
- Turnovers: Both teams are prone to turnovers; whichever team limits mistakes will gain a significant advantage.
- Three-point Defense: With both squads relying on perimeter scoring, defending the arc effectively will be crucial.
- Rebounding Battle: Evenly matched on the boards, second-chance opportunities could swing momentum.
- In-game Adjustments: Coaching decisions will be pivotal in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.
This matchup between Stanford and Notre Dame offers compelling storylines as both teams aim to close out their seasons on a high note. While Stanford enters as the favorite due to their superior metrics and consistency, Notre Dame’s home-court advantage and offensive efficiency make them a live underdog capable of pulling off an upset if they execute well defensively and capitalize on turnovers.
For bettors, focusing on the spread (-1.5 Stanford) or total points (Under 141.5) provides value based on current trends and team dynamics heading into tonight’s clash at Purcell Pavilion.
