Date: Monday, December 16, 2024

Time: 9:00 PM ET

Arena: Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena Fort Worth, TX

The college basketball landscape is buzzing as the South Alabama Jaguars prepare to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a highly anticipated matchup. Scheduled for December 16, 2024, at 8 PM EST, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter between two teams looking to solidify their early-season standings. The Horned Frogs, currently favored by 12.5 points, will host the Jaguars at the Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

With both teams showcasing unique strengths and weaknesses, let’s dive into an in-depth analysis of what to expect from this exciting showdown.

Current Form

South Alabama Jaguars

The Jaguars come into this game with a solid 7-3 record and are riding a three-game winning streak. Their recent victory against East Texas A&M (81-72) highlighted their offensive capabilities, particularly from standout guard Myles Corey, who scored 27 points in that game. South Alabama has demonstrated resilience on the road, boasting a 2-1 away record this season. They average 74.2 points per game, showcasing an effective offense that can capitalize on defensive lapses.

Defensively, South Alabama is no slouch either. They allow only 66.7 points per game and have limited opponents to a shooting percentage of 39.9%. This defensive prowess will be crucial against a TCU team that is trying to find its rhythm after losing its leading scorer.

TCU Horned Frogs

On the other side of the court, the TCU Horned Frogs are currently sitting at 5-4 and are searching for consistency after experiencing losses in three of their last four games. Their most recent setback came against Vanderbilt (83-74), where they struggled with free throws and turnovers—issues that have plagued them throughout the season. TCU averages 73.0 points per game, but their scoring has dipped since losing Frankie Collins to injury, who was averaging 11.2 points and 4.4 assists before his season-ending foot surgery.

Despite these challenges, TCU remains undefeated at home (5-0), which could provide a significant boost as they face South Alabama. However, they need to improve their free-throw shooting (60.1%) and reduce turnovers (averaging 11.6 per game) if they hope to secure a comfortable win.

Key Statistics

Offensive Efficiency

South Alabama: 74.2 PPG, effective field goal percentage of around 45%.
TCU: 73.0 PPG, with a three-point shooting average of 7.4 makes per game.

Defensive Efficiency

South Alabama: Allows 66.7 PPG with opponents shooting 39.9%.
TCU: Concedes 67.2 PPG but has struggled with rebounding and defensive consistency lately.

Turnover Rates

South Alabama forces an average of 14.7 turnovers per game, which could be pivotal against TCU’s ball-handling issues.

Rebounding

Both teams have shown weaknesses in rebounding; however, TCU’s ability to capitalize on second-chance opportunities could be a deciding factor.

Notable Injuries

The absence of Frankie Collins is a significant blow for TCU as they lose their primary playmaker and scorer. His injury shifts the focus to players like Vasean Allette and Noah Reynolds, who will need to step up in scoring and facilitating plays.

For South Alabama, they appear to be healthy and ready to exploit any weaknesses TCU presents.

Why I Pick the Over on Total Points (136.5)

Given the current statistics and trends for both teams, I am confident in picking the over on the total points set at 136.5 for this matchup.

Scoring Trends: Both teams have shown they can score effectively; South Alabama averages over 74 points per game while TCU has been known to reach similar numbers when playing at home.
Defensive Vulnerabilities: While South Alabama has a strong defensive record, TCU’s offensive capabilities at home can lead to higher scoring outputs, especially if they find their rhythm early.
Fast Pace of Play: South Alabama’s ability to force turnovers could lead to fast-break opportunities that generate quick points, further pushing the total score higher.
Prediction Models Support:
- KenPom predicts a score of TCU 78 – South Alabama 70.
- Bart Torvik suggests TCU will score around 76 points while South Alabama hits about 72.
- Sagarin Ratings forecast a close battle with TCU edging out at around 77 – 69.
- ESPN BPI projects similar outcomes with scores hovering around the mid-70s for both teams.
- Haslametrics also indicates a potential high-scoring affair with expected totals exceeding 140 points.

These models consistently show that both teams are capable of contributing significantly to the scoreboard, making the over on total points an attractive bet.

Predicted Scores

Based on our analysis and prediction models:

TCU Horned Frogs: 78
South Alabama Jaguars: 70

This prediction not only aligns with statistical trends but also reflects how both teams might perform under pressure during this pivotal matchup.

Conclusion

As we gear up for this exciting clash between South Alabama and TCU, fans can expect an engaging battle filled with scoring opportunities and strategic plays from both sides. The absence of Collins for TCU adds an element of unpredictability; however, their home-court advantage may still carry them through against a capable Jaguars squad eager to prove themselves on the road.

With both teams poised for an offensive showcase, taking the over on total points seems like a smart move as we anticipate fireworks on the court!

PICK: over 136.5 total points LOSE