The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, the tension of a close game – it’s all part of the allure of Major League Baseball. But for savvy bettors, the real excitement often lies in identifying undervalued lines and capitalizing on situational factors. As the Chicago Cubs limp into Philadelphia to face a slumping Phillies squad on Monday, June 9, 2025, the initial instinct for some might be to lean into the offensive firepower both teams can possess. However, a deeper dive into recent performances, pitching matchups, and crucial injuries paints a compelling picture for a different kind of wager: the Under 7.5 runs total.
This isn’t just a gut feeling; it’s a calculated decision rooted in a thorough analysis of current form, historical trends, and the very DNA of these two teams as they skid into each other for a much-needed victory.
The Struggling Offenses: A Confluence of Cold Bats
Both the Cubs and the Phillies arrive at this series with offenses that have recently gone colder than a June snowstorm.
Chicago Cubs (40-25): A Sudden Power Outage
The Cubs, despite their impressive overall record, have been hit by a sudden and alarming power outage at the plate. Their weekend series against the Detroit Tigers was a testament to this, with the team scoring just one run in a Friday loss and being completely shut out on Sunday. A dismal 4-for-30 performance on Sunday, coupled with 12 team strikeouts, speaks volumes about their current offensive struggles. While Dansby Swanson provided a glimmer of hope with two hits, the collective hitting has been lethargic.
Historically, the Cubs boast a strong offense, ranking second in the majors with 363 total runs and fifth in home runs with 88. Their .259 team batting average ranks second. However, recent performance heavily outweighs season-long averages when making a precise game-day prediction. Manager Craig Counsell’s focus on “playing good baseball” and “doing our jobs the right way” suggests an emphasis on fundamentals, which can sometimes translate to a more disciplined, rather than explosive, offensive approach in an effort to get back on track.
Crucially, the Cubs are dealing with a litany of injuries that could impact their offensive depth and overall output. While the initial prompt didn’t specify offensive players on the IL, key pitching injuries often stretch bullpens, indirectly impacting run prevention and putting more pressure on the offense. However, for the purpose of the “Under” bet, the recent offensive slump is the most direct and pressing factor.
Philadelphia Phillies (37-28): A Five-Game Freefall
The Phillies are in an even more desperate state, reeling from a five-game losing streak and having dropped nine of their last ten. Their recent sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates, where all three losses were by a single run, highlights their inability to generate offense in crucial moments. Sunday’s 2-1 defeat saw them manage only three hits.
Beyond the close losses, the Phillies have also endured several blowout defeats in their recent skid, including scores of 9-3, 17-7, and 9-1. This suggests a team that isn’t just struggling to win, but one that is sometimes completely outmatched, leading to both low-scoring affairs and runaway losses when the pitching falters.
A significant blow to the Phillies’ offense is the absence of star first baseman Bryce Harper, who is on the 10-day injured list with right wrist inflammation and isn’t expected back until at least June 16. Harper’s power and presence in the lineup are irreplaceable, and his absence directly impacts the team’s run-scoring potential. While players like Kyle Schwarber (.252, 20 HR, 46 RBI) and Trea Turner (.300, 7 HR, 30 RBI) are capable of individual heroics, the collective offensive output will undoubtedly suffer without Harper’s consistent threat. Manager Rob Thomson’s contemplation of lineup changes underscores the urgency and desperation within the Phillies’ camp to reignite their bats.
The Pitching Duel: A Tale of Two Resurgent Arms
The pitching matchup for Monday’s game further solidifies the case for the Under.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler (RHP) – 6-2, 2.96 ERA
Zack Wheeler is an ace, plain and simple. While his last outing against Atlanta (6 runs in 5 1/3 innings) was an ugly one, it was also his first start back after regular rest and a stint on the paternity list. Often, pitchers can be a bit rusty in their first game back after a break, especially when personal matters are involved. Wheeler himself acknowledged, “I lost my control a little bit… I wasn’t as sharp as I needed to be.” This indicates a self-awareness and a likely determination to bounce back with a dominant performance.
Wheeler’s overall numbers this season are excellent: a 2.96 ERA and a stellar 0.92 WHIP, indicating he keeps baserunners to a minimum. His 5.22 SO/BB ratio also points to strong command. Against the Cubs in his career, he holds a 2-2 record with a 3.59 ERA in 52 2/3 innings across nine starts. While not dominant, it’s a solid record that suggests he can limit their offense. With the Phillies desperately needing a win to stop their skid, and Wheeler returning to the mound at home, expect a focused and sharp effort from him.
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (LHP) – 5-3, 3.01 ERA
Matthew Boyd has quietly put together a strong season for the Cubs, reflected in his 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. More importantly, he’s entering this game in excellent form. Over his last two starts, Boyd has allowed just two earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. This includes a season-high 7 1/3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals in his last outing, where he gave up only two runs.
Boyd’s philosophy, as he stated, is simply to “go attack and compete each time the ball is in my hand.” This aggressive approach, coupled with his recent success, suggests he’s in a groove. While he has only one career start against the Phillies (a no-decision in July 2019 where he allowed two runs in six innings), his current form makes him a formidable opponent for a struggling Phillies lineup missing its best bat.
Situational Factors and Trends Supporting the Under
- Urgency and Tightness: Both teams are in a desperate situation. The Cubs are trying to halt a mini-slide, and the Phillies are in a full-blown freefall. When teams are struggling and feeling the pressure, games often become tighter, more defensive affairs where every run feels magnified. This can lead to conservative offensive approaches and a heightened focus on pitching and defense.
- Recent Offensive Trends: The raw data from the past week for both teams screams “Under.” The Cubs’ 0 and 1 run performances are stark, and the Phillies’ consistent one-run losses and low hit totals are equally telling. Betting on the “Under” is essentially betting on these recent trends to continue, at least for one more game.
- Bryce Harper’s Absence: This cannot be overstated. Harper is a game-changer. Without him, the Phillies’ lineup has significantly less pop and is easier for opposing pitchers to navigate. His absence alone makes the “Under” more appealing.
- Pitcher’s Bounce-Back/Hot Streak: Wheeler’s poor outing was an anomaly for him this season, and his return from the paternity list might motivate him to pitch exceptionally well. Boyd is on a hot streak. When both starting pitchers are likely to deliver strong performances, the likelihood of a high-scoring game diminishes considerably.
- Underlying Metrics: While both teams have respectable overall offensive numbers for the season, their recent performance suggests a negative regression to the mean. The Phillies’ team ERA of 4.01 ranks 19th, while the Cubs’ is 3.68 (10th). Both bullpens have had their struggles, but the focus on the starting pitching here is key.
Evaluating Outcomes and Why Under 7.5 is the Smart Play
Let’s consider the possible game outcomes and why the Under 7.5 line is attractive at -100 odds.
- Low-scoring pitcher’s duel (e.g., 2-1, 3-2, 4-2): This is the most likely scenario given the starting pitchers’ capabilities and the recent offensive struggles of both teams, especially without Harper for the Phillies. If both Wheeler and Boyd perform to their recent potential, runs will be at a premium.
- One team breaks out slightly, the other remains cold (e.g., 5-2, 6-1): Even if one team manages to put up a few runs, the “Under” is still safe if the other team continues to struggle. The Phillies’ recent offensive output without Harper makes this a strong possibility for them.
- High-scoring shootout (e.g., 5-4, 6-3, 7-2): This outcome would bust the “Under” bet. While possible in baseball, the current form of both offenses and the quality of the starting pitching make this less probable. The Cubs have gone over in 35 of 65 games with a total set, and the Phillies in 29 of 65, but these are season-long trends that don’t fully capture the current offensive slumps.
- Blowout by one team with the other remaining cold (e.g., 7-0, 8-1): While the Phillies have had some blowout losses, if one team gets shut down completely, it still helps the “Under.”
The critical factor is the line at 7.5 runs. This means we need the combined score to be 7 runs or less. With two pitchers demonstrating the ability to go deep into games and limit damage, and two offenses in significant slumps, the probability of hitting 8 or more runs is considerably lower than the odds imply. The -100 odds on the Under suggest a 50% implied probability, which feels generous given the current circumstances.
Conclusion: Trust the Arms, Fade the Bats
Monday’s matchup between the Cubs and Phillies sets up as a classic “under” play. Both teams are desperately seeking a win, but their recent offensive performances have been anemic. The Phillies, in particular, are severely hampered by the absence of Bryce Harper. On the mound, Zack Wheeler, despite a recent hiccup, is an elite arm eager to right the ship at home, while Matthew Boyd has been consistently solid.
The confluence of cold bats, strong starting pitching, and the pressure of a losing streak for both sides points directly to a low-scoring affair. While baseball can always surprise, the statistical trends and situational factors strongly favor runs being at a premium in Citizens Bank Park.
The Verdict: Embrace the Pitching Duel, Bet the Under 7.5. This calculated wager offers compelling value, banking on a return to form for two quality pitchers and the continued struggles of two presently impotent offenses.
Pick: Under 7.5
