As the St. Louis Cardinals roll into PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates, bettors are presented with a fascinating matchup of two teams riding recent waves of success, albeit with vastly different season narratives. While the Cardinals are firmly entrenched in the postseason hunt at 47-38, the Pirates, at 35-50, are playing for pride and future development. The first pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, July 1, 2025. This game offers a compelling betting opportunity, and a deep dive into the underlying metrics suggests that the Under 9.5 runs is not just a reasonable wager, but a calculated and smart decision.
Let’s dissect this matchup to understand why the total hitting the under is the most probable outcome.
The Pitching Predicament: Two Starters Due for a Rebound (or Regression)
The pitching matchup features Erick Fedde (RHP, 3-7, 4.11 ERA) for the Cardinals and Andrew Heaney (LHP, 3-7, 4.48 ERA) for the Pirates. At first glance, their ERAs suggest a propensity for runs, but a closer look reveals a different story.
Erick Fedde (Cardinals): Fedde’s 4.11 ERA is somewhat misleading. While he was shelled for seven runs in his last outing against the Cubs (3.2 IP, 8 H, 3 HR), that performance was an outlier in what has generally been a solid stretch for him. Prior to that, he had a string of more effective starts, including a masterful six no-hit, scoreless innings against these very Pirates on April 9th, a game the Cardinals ultimately lost 2-1 in 13 innings. His career numbers against Pittsburgh are strong: 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in 22 innings over four starts.
Advanced metrics further paint a picture of a pitcher whose traditional ERA might be overstating his struggles. Fedde’s xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) suggest he’s due for some positive regression. He ranks in the bottom 35% of qualified starters in innings pitched, and his walk rate has increased, yet his HR/9 is lower than his career norm, indicating that while he might be allowing more baserunners, he’s generally been avoiding the big damage. The recent blow-up against the Cubs, where even his outs were hard-hit, could be attributed to a rough day rather than a sustained decline. He faces a Pirates offense that, while hot, is still middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching this season.
Andrew Heaney (Pirates): Heaney, on the other hand, is a self-proclaimed “streakier pitcher.” His last two outings have been disastrous, allowing seven runs in each and failing to complete five innings. His season ERA has ballooned to 4.48 as a result. Furthermore, his career numbers against the Cardinals are abysmal: 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in just 11 2/3 innings over three starts.
However, Heaney has historically been much better at home. His 2.95 ERA at PNC Park this season contrasts sharply with his 5.79 ERA on the road. This home-field advantage could be a significant factor in tempering the Cardinals’ recent offensive surge. While the Cardinals’ lineup has been hot, their overall performance against left-handed pitching this season is a concern for their bettors. St. Louis has a wRC+ of 92 against left-handed pitchers this season, indicating they are below league average in creating runs against southpaws. This statistic is critical when evaluating their potential output against Heaney.
Offenses in Focus: Streaky and Situational
Both offenses are entering this game with momentum, but their underlying stats and situational matchups suggest a potential slowdown.
St. Louis Cardinals Offense: The Cardinals have been red-hot, scoring 21 runs in their three-game sweep of the Guardians. Nolan Gorman has been a standout, providing power as the designated hitter. However, their struggles against left-handed pitching (like Heaney) are well-documented this season. Their team batting average against lefties is .236, which is not particularly inspiring. While their recent offensive outburst is undeniable, the quality of pitching they faced in Cleveland was not top-tier, and facing a home-run-prone lefty in his home park could be a recipe for a more muted offensive performance from St. Louis.
Pittsburgh Pirates Offense: The Pirates are also on a tear, outscoring the Mets 30-4 in their recent sweep. Ke’Bryan Hayes is on an eight-game hitting streak, hitting .448 during that span. This offensive surge is a welcome sight for Pittsburgh fans. However, the Mets’ pitching staff has been struggling mightily, and their performance against the Cardinals’ right-handed pitching, even a struggling Fedde, might not translate. The Pirates overall batting average against right-handed pitching is .234, indicating that while they’ve had recent success, it’s not a consistent strength.
Bullpen Battle and Situational Factors
The bullpens will play a crucial role in this game, especially with both starters having recent struggles and a tendency to give up runs.
While specific 2025 bullpen ERAs are not readily available for both teams, generally, bullpens can be inconsistent. However, with the current over/under set at 9.5 runs, the expectation is for a higher-scoring affair. If either starter can settle in and provide five to six innings of reasonable work, the bullpens, even if not elite, have a chance to hold the line and keep the score lower.
Situational Factors:
- PNC Park: PNC Park is generally considered a pitcher-friendly park, which could further suppress run scoring. The park factors provided indicate a slight leaning towards pitchers.
- Weather: While specific weather for July 1, 2025, isn’t available, assuming typical summer conditions in Pittsburgh, extreme wind or heat that would significantly inflate offense is unlikely.
- Fatigue: Both teams are coming off sweeps, which means their bullpens might have seen some work, but the offensive explosion for the Pirates means their high-leverage relievers might be relatively fresh.
The Under 9.5 Argument: A Calculated Bet
The initial betting lines show the total hovering around 8.5 to 9.0 runs, with some books offering 9.5. The fact that the line is creeping up presents a significant opportunity. Here’s why betting the Under 9.5 is a smart play:
- Pitcher Regression/Rebound Potential: Fedde’s blow-up outing against the Cubs was his worst of the season, and it’s unlikely to be a sustained trend, especially against a Pirates team he’s historically dominated. Heaney, despite his recent struggles, is at home where he’s been significantly better this season. Both pitchers have the capacity to go deeper into the game and keep runs off the board if they can find their rhythm.
- Offensive Matchup Discrepancies: While both offenses are hot, their recent success came against struggling pitching staffs (Guardians, Mets). The Cardinals historically struggle against left-handed pitching, and Heaney, despite his recent woes, is a veteran southpaw. The Pirates, while showing recent pop, are still a low-average team against right-handers.
- Home Park Advantage for Heaney: Heaney’s strong home ERA (2.95) cannot be ignored. PNC Park is conducive to lower-scoring games, and this factor often plays a significant role in a pitcher’s performance.
- Recency Bias in Betting Lines: The recent offensive explosions might be inflating the total. Bettors often overreact to the most recent results. This creates value on the under, as the market might be overpricing the offensive upside based on unsustainable short-term trends.
- Historical Head-to-Head: The Cardinals and Pirates have a history of playing low-scoring games, as evidenced by their previous matchups this season (e.g., a 2-1 game in 13 innings). While not a definitive predictor, it suggests a familiarity that can lead to tighter contests.
While there’s always a risk of an unexpected offensive explosion, the confluence of a Fedde rebound against a familiar opponent, Heaney’s strong home splits, and the Cardinals’ struggles against lefties makes a strong case for a lower-scoring affair. The current over/under of 9.5 offers a generous cushion.
Conclusion: Don’t Chase the Over, Embrace the Under
In a game where both teams are feeling confident with the bat, it’s easy to get caught up in the “over” hype. However, the data points to a different narrative. Erick Fedde is likely to bounce back, and Andrew Heaney’s home performance gives him a fighting chance to contain the Cardinals’ offense, which also has its own struggles against left-handers. The recent offensive fireworks from both teams, while impressive, occurred against less formidable pitching.
Therefore, the smart money for this Cardinals-Pirates clash is firmly on the Under 9.5 runs. This wager leverages the situational strengths of the starting pitchers, the offensive weaknesses against the handedness of the opposing starter, and the inherent pitching-friendly nature of PNC Park. Bet with confidence, knowing you’re going against the public’s likely overreaction to recent offensive output, and instead relying on a deeper, more calculated analysis.
Pick: Under 9.5
