Sharp Eyes on Pittsburgh: Giants vs. Pirates Isn’t a Throwaway Game — It’s a Trap or a Treasure

The San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are back at it again for Game 2 of their midweek series at PNC Park. Tuesday’s opener was all Giants, cruising to an 8-1 win behind a strong performance from Logan Webb and an offense that delivered 14 hits. Now, with two lefties taking the mound—Robbie Ray for the Giants and Andrew Heaney for the Pirates—all eyes are on whether the scoring continues.

This matchup presents interesting dynamics: a red-hot Giants offense, a struggling Pirates lineup, and two pitchers with very different recent trends. But most importantly, today’s game has a clear potential to go over the 8-run total, and there are plenty of reasons why.

Starting Pitchers: A Tale of Two Lefties

Robbie Ray (San Francisco Giants)

• Record: 9-5
• ERA: 2.85
• WHIP: 1.12
• IP: 136.0
• SO/BB Ratio: 2.64

Ray, a two-time All-Star, enters this matchup following one of his sharpest outings of the season. On Friday, he held the New York Mets to just one run across seven innings, giving up only four hits and striking out six. The lone blemish was a solo home run by Pete Alonso. Unfortunately, Ray didn’t factor into the decision as the Giants’ bullpen—recently shaken by the trades of key relievers Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers—gave up the lead late before the Giants rallied in extra innings.

Despite not earning a win since July 3, Ray remains a steady presence. He’s motivated and hopeful for a playoff push. As he said after the Mets game, “We got ourselves in this situation, but we still have the big pieces that we brought in. We didn’t do a major overhaul. This team is still good enough to win.”

Ray has a 2-2 record with a 4.78 ERA in six career starts against the Pirates. He did not pitch last week when Pittsburgh swept the Giants in San Francisco. With the Pirates having won 10 of their past 14 games, Ray will be looking to stop their momentum.

Andrew Heaney (Pittsburgh Pirates)

• Record: 5-9
• ERA: 4.89
• WHIP: 1.31
• IP: 110.1
• SO/BB Ratio: 2.19

Heaney’s recent form has been shaky. In his last outing against Colorado, despite his team jumping to a 9-0 lead in the first inning, he lasted only 3.1 innings, giving up seven hits and four runs (three earned). The Rockies would go on to complete an incredible 17-16 comeback victory. That type of outing has become too common for Heaney, who has now allowed the most earned runs (60) and home runs (21) of any Pirates pitcher this season.

At home, he’s shown flashes of effectiveness. On July 26 against the Diamondbacks, Heaney pitched five scoreless innings with just two hits allowed. Pirates manager Don Kelly remains optimistic, noting Heaney’s adaptability and resilience: “The way he goes about it, seeing the way he’s been able to add arm slots, change speeds, mix things up… it’s impressive.”

Heaney has a career 1-4 record with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts versus San Francisco. He did not pitch in last week’s series.

Injury Report

Giants:

• Wilmer Flores (Hamstring) – Probable for Aug 6
• Tom Murphy, Erik Miller, Ethan Small – Out through at least Aug 6
• Landen Roupp, Cole Waites – Expected back mid-August

Pirates:

• Endy Rodriguez, Jared Jones, Jack Brannigan – Out for season
• Tim Mayza, Justin Lawrence, Cristofer Melendez – Out until mid-August
• Abraham Gutierrez, Derek Diamond – Day-to-day

San Francisco appears more stable and healthier heading into this one. Flores returning adds middle-of-the-lineup power and experience.

Why I’m Confident in the Over 8 Total Runs Prediction

Model-Backed Projections

Five reputable MLB prediction models point toward a high-scoring outcome:

All five models anticipate 9 or more runs. This consensus strongly supports a game total above the current 8-run line.

Pitching Vulnerabilities

Heaney’s inconsistency and high home run rate increase the likelihood of early scoring from the Giants. The Pirates’ bullpen isn’t deep, especially with multiple relievers sidelined. Ray is more solid but has a middling 4.78 ERA in his career against Pittsburgh, so a few runs from the Pirates is possible.

Hitting Trends & Key Matchups

• The Giants’ offense is hot, and with every batter collecting a hit on Tuesday, they’re clearly locked in.
• Four Giants hitters have homered off Heaney in the past, including Willy Adames, who’s gone deep twice in 18 at-bats.
• Andrew McCutchen is 7-for-21 (.333) lifetime against Ray, with two home runs and three RBIs, which suggests Pittsburgh might still be able to scratch across some runs.

Recent Trends

Three of the Giants’ last five games have gone over 8 total runs. Their offense alone has cleared that number in two recent contests. If Heaney can’t go deep into the game, it opens up the door for late scoring.

Key Stats at a Glance

What to Watch for in This Game

• Ray’s efficiency: Can he carry his momentum from the Mets game?
• Heaney’s response: Will he rebound from his meltdown in Colorado?
• Early offense: Both teams may be aggressive early, especially the Giants.
• Bullpen usage: Pirates’ depth issues could be exposed in the later innings.

Final Thoughts

This game sets up to be a fun, back-and-forth matchup. Ray is the better starter, but Pittsburgh’s recent form and home advantage give them some edge. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense looks in sync and dangerous.

With every major projection model predicting 9+ runs, two left-handed starters with exploitable trends, and both lineups having reasons to be aggressive, expect a high-energy, high-scoring affair. All signs point toward a total that climbs past 8 by the time it’s all said and done. Don’t blink—this one should keep fans entertained from start to finish.

My pick: over 8.5 total runs LOSE