Last weekend’s six-pack didn’t hit the way we wanted, but this week’s picks for December 21st and 22nd are looking much better. With some solid matchups across college football and the NFL, I’m confident these will turn things around!
Six sharp calls to give you the edge this weekend.
College Football & NFL Picks for Saturday, Dec. 21st
SMU +6.5 vs. Penn State
Taking SMU at +6.5 against Penn State feels like a sharp play due to the Mustangs ability to score and maintain pace with almost any opponent. SMU boasts the 6th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 38.5 points per game, with quarterback Kevin Jennings amassing over 3,000 passing yards and 22 touchdowns this season. Their balanced offensive attack includes a strong rushing component, averaging over 176 yards per game, which could stretch a Penn State defense that has looked vulnerable against creative offenses. SMU’s ability to score quickly and consistently keeps this one close, and the +6.5 spread provides strong value in a game that could come down to the wire.
Clemson +10 vs. Texas
Clemson at +10 versus Texas offers immense value, especially given the sharp action backing the Tigers. According to ATSWins data, only 3% of tickets are on Clemson, but those wagers account for 75% of the money showing the sharps confidence in this pick. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has been stellar with 25 touchdowns this season, but Clemson’s defensive line, which has recorded 33 sacks, presents a legitimate challenge. The Tigers have also been effective offensively, averaging 37.4 points per game down the stretch. Dabo Swinney’s experience in high-stakes matchups is another factor that can’t be overlooked, as Clemson thrives in environments where coaching and game planning are critical. Given the Tigers defensive readiness and offensive rhythm, expecting this to be a competitive game makes the double digit spread hard to ignore.
Tennessee +7.5 vs. Ohio State
Tennessee catching +7.5 against Ohio State is all about capitalizing on the Vols’ ability to control the tempo and expose the Buckeyes recent inconsistencies. Tennessee’s ground game is elite, ranking 9th nationally with 232 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State has allowed on average 241 yards per game. Defensively, Tennessee has tightened up, looking at the team stats on ATSWins, Tennessee has held opponents to just 23 points per game in 11 of 12 games. The Vols’ ability to control the clock, limit possessions, and bring a physical presence to both sides of the ball makes this a matchup where they can easily stay within the +7.5 spread.
Steelers +6.5 vs Ravens
Taking the Steelers at +6.5 against the Ravens offers solid value, especially when you consider Pittsburgh’s stout defense. Despite some offensive inconsistencies, the Steelers defense has been one of the league’s best, ranking 4th in rushing defense. T.J. Watt, who leads the team with 11.5 sacks, is expected to play, which should further elevate the pass rush against Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been fantastic this season, but he’ll face a defense that excels in forcing turnovers and limiting explosive plays. With the Steelers ability to disrupt plays, the Ravens could find it difficult to establish their usual rhythm.
On the other side, the Ravens may be without key receivers Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, both listed as questionable. If they can’t go, Jackson will have fewer reliable options in the passing game. This is a rivalry game likely to stay close throughout and with Pittsburgh’s defense keeping things tight, the points with the Steelers are definitely worth taking. Expect a hard fought, low scoring affair, and Pittsburgh should be able to cover the spread, if not pull off the upset.
NFL Picks for Sunday, Dec. 22nd
49ers +1.5 vs Dolphins
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers travel to Miami to face Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins in a game where San Francisco looks poised to bounce back after a tough loss to the Rams. With a healthy roster and extra rest from a mini-bye, the 49ers are in a great spot. Miami’s defense has been porous recently, allowing 5.8 yards per play and ranking 26th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13. On the other side, the 49ers’ defense is feeling strong with Dre Greenlaw back in action. With McDaniel’s offense built off Shanahan’s system, San Francisco has a clear advantage in preparation. The Dolphins could be without top receiver Jaylen Waddle (knee) and continue to miss tackle Terron Armstead, which only further tilts the scale in favor of the 49ers.
Vikings (Moneyline) vs Seahawks
This Week 16 matchup is crucial for both the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks as they fight to secure their playoff spots. Minnesota is clinging to the No. 5 seed, while Seattle is chasing the No. 7 seed, needing to leapfrog Washington for the final playoff berth. With so much at stake, this game will have a playoff-like atmosphere, especially for the home team desperate to keep their postseason hopes alive.
The Vikings’ defense has struggled in recent weeks but remains aggressive under Brian Flores, leading the league in blitz rate and producing the fourth-highest pressure rate with 42 sacks this season. That doesn’t bode well for Geno Smith, who comes into this game banged up after a knee injury that nearly ended his season. While Smith will suit up, his lack of mobility combined with Minnesota’s relentless pass rush could spell trouble. Under pressure, Smith’s completion rate dips below 57%, and 11 of his 13 interceptions this season have come while feeling the heat. With key injuries around him, Seattle’s offense could have a tough time keeping pace with a Vikings team hungry to lock in their playoff position
Bonus pick: Mike Evans Anytime TD
Backing Mike Evans to score an anytime touchdown against the Cowboys feels like a solid pick, given his consistent role as the Bucs’ top receiver. Evans has been a reliable red zone target for quarterback Baker Mayfield, already recording multiple touchdowns this season. The Cowboys defense, while strong overall, has shown vulnerability against top-tier wide receivers, particularly in the passing game. With cornerbacks like Trevon Diggs out for the season, Dallas’ secondary has been more susceptible to big plays. Evans ability to create separation and make contested catches makes him a prime candidate to find the end zone in this matchup, especially as Tampa Bay looks to exploit any weaknesses in the Cowboys defense.
Six predictions for this weekend are locked and loaded, aimed at helping you win big. The legwork is done, so make sure your bets are in before the first whistle blows. After that, just enjoy the show and let the results speak for themselves. I’ll be back next week with more picks to keep the momentum going!
